Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I feel bad for John Cessarich. He sounded really deflated on air. His map had Flo hitting as a Cat1 near Wilmington and moving relatively quickly to the south and west. He wasn’t really concerned about much of anything. I’m not sure what to think at this point

 

[Weatherlover92]

Two things to note is

1: Our hurricane models still bust horrible often on intensity.

2: The models are still bad at predicting wind shear.

Agreed, especially with the second point, I would add dry air to that point as well.

EDIT: FWIW, Florence looks a little better now than it did even an hour ago, but we've seen this song and dance multiple times. I'm curious to see if it's one more last comeback to a major hurricane or if she will remain steady as she goes over the next 12hrs or so.

 

[accu35]

Please don't take this the wrong way, but I really feel sorry for the chasers if Flo weakens down to TS status.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If Flo is weakening that's a very good thing in my book. Yesterday she was expected to be a cat 5 so anything below that is a blessing from God. I think about the 200 people on that NC island that stayed at there home, and that there lives are in danger along the coast line, with a drop in strength or more could very well spare them more now than before

Yeah. The people that stayed on Ocracoke are looking pretty smart atm. Subject to change

 

[Tarheel1]

This!

 

[SD]

ICON definitely brings many more in NC into play with wind and flood potential..... still crazy model madness this close to landfall

Just looking over what we have so far the models are pretty in line through 30 hrs

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[GaWx]

Please don't take this the wrong way, but I really feel sorry for the chasers if Flo weakens down to TS status.

LOL

 

[accu35]

View attachment 6314 This!

A whole whopping 19 mph in Macon

 

[RBR71]

Point taken... haha yeah actually short term there is a consensus

Just looking over what we have so far the models are pretty in line through 30 hrs

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[BHS1975]

Already looking better.

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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 6314 This!

LOL! This would be my 5th strongest wind gust of the summer! And not just 0mph in Asheville, 000mph. You can tell they had to throw that together quick before going on air as the latest Cat2 recon data came in

 

[RBR71]

GFS virtually unchanged from 18z and inline with all other modeling tonight

 

[Tarheel1]

Already looking better.

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If that’s current, it’s looking fantastic compared to an hour or to ago!

 

[Cary_Snow95]

I definitely expect the precip shield to be way more expansive than the models show.

 

[Snowfan]

GFS has Florence making landfall at 36 hours.

 

[ncskywarn]

GFS at 36 almost identical to 18Z. At 66 just a little East of 18Z.

 

[accu35]

Already looking better.

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I actually believe she could strengthen before LF. Waters are warmer where she's at now.

 

[Alex]

Fwiw raw T# have gone up a tad from 4.9 at 0115UTC to 5.2 at 0245UTC

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[snowlover91]

It looks like the shear at the 200-250mb level is dropping as she pulls away from the ULL near Florida. Could see her make one last attempt to strengthen with traversing the Gulf Stream during d-min and with favorable outflow.

 

[Snowfan]

GFS looks ICON-like at 54 hours.

 

[NCSNOW]

Well been thinking mby would be spared the worst and still confident. However thought 5 to 6 inches of rain would do the 50lbs of grass seed good. I still haven't spread, because a 1/ 4 inch or less qpf means I'll have to irrigate for 2 weeks. Still have no clue which way the pedellum is gonna swing even this late in the week. Unfortunately we do know the inland flooding se NC and ne SC is gonna be epic. Really feel for those folks.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[BHS1975]

You can get up to the minute super high resolution satellite loops now. The new GOES rocks.


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[RBR71]

GFS has that more expansive rain shield, more realistic imo

 

[SD]

Well. No good things to say about that gfs run for mby.

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[Alex]

There are going to be a lot of people around the Triangle caught off guard if that verifies...

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[SD]

Still taking a beating at 72

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[BHS1975]

That puts RDU right in tornado central.


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[snowlover91]

Wow look at rainfall potential... this would produce Matthew and Floyd flooding levels if it verified.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

This run never made it nearly as far south into SC. Keeps central NC in the heaviest axis of precip. I expect the euro to make a north adjustment

 

[RBR71]

If this were a winter storm I'd be upset.... seriously this is still looking to be epic life threatening flood potential.

 

[SD]

Canadian is the same as the gfs. Damn

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[Kylo]

You gotta think this is to slow and a hair to far north?

 

[DopplerWx]

This run never made it nearly as far south into SC. Keeps central NC in the heaviest axis of precip. I expect the euro to make a north adjustment

it is basically identical to the 18z gfs.

 

[BHS1975]

We are ----**cked


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[deltadog03]

Well hot damn.......

 

[Cary_Snow95]

it is basically identical to the 18z gfs.

18z

0z

 

[Snowflowxxl]

We are ----**cked


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^^^

 

[SD]

You gotta think this is to slow and a hair to far north?

View attachment 6318

You could make an argument that in some areas where we get concentrated se to nw bands these totals might be low. As a whole though that seems to be where guidance is going tonight

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[GeorgiaGirl]

it is basically identical to the 18z gfs.

Thought the same but it really isn't. Impacts stay the same in North Carolina (I'm so glad my cousin and his family have moved from East NC, military family) but that's the first run in a while that leaves some of the western portions of who could possibly see rain from it high and dry.