Is that an ULL near FL?? Won’t that pull it west?
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Yeah I was just looking at this and I could see it start to gain some latitude soon
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WeatherAddiction
Member
How likely does the cone shift w EPS and ECMWF models in agreement
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Hurricane force wind gusts made it well inland on last night's Euro run. Given how saturated the ground will be you'll only need 40-45 KT gusts to start seeing a lot of trees come down.
I am actually not sure that it will gain much latitude today. The stronger she becomes, I did notice the other level above this (for steering) the ridge to the north was actually a bit stronger. So, I think a basic W (westerly) movement for today looks possible. I would say maybe 275-290 heading?
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Wouldn’t this have major impacts for north Georgia too? Wherever it hits it shows a stall....... not good
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I know this has already been posted but there was a shift south in the EPS clustering last night towards SC, hopefully this doesn't become a trend in NWP over the next day or so.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
To get major impacts in GA including areas like Atlanta & Macon, you'll need to see this storm take a track south of Charleston, towards Savannah &/or the SC/GA border. That solution unfortunately is still on the table.
NorthGaWinter4
Member
The more south it goes the stronger, correct?
Agreed it would have a WNW trajectory at the next level, very close to the NHC track.... either way she's looking mean now and if she's going to start to feel the weakness and gain any latitude it's now
Can't post the pic, maybe someone else can but the Uk ens was all over NC last night.....
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
So, the GFS comes in line with the Euro, and then the Euro goes further south into SC. Madness.
Best I can do haha.... mogreps
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Yellow Snow
Member
I still like absolutely nothing of what I am seeing from the models. The southward Euro and EPS not ideal, the northward GFS not ideal, the FV3 splits the difference and sucks too.
MichaelAndrews
Member
Today should paint a very clear picture of where this bad boy is headed, nobody is out in the clear yet
I think it’ll take another day or two before things clear up a whole lot. We have mostly converged on a hit, but the location is still quite variable.
Yeah that southward track really takes the northern tier of NC out of the woods, another 50 miles south of what the Euro had a good part of NC is out of the woods from significant wind damage north of the 74/76 corridor.
I'm not sure if we can get this much farther south though..
I just text him and told him to look on the bright side. When the power goes out he won’t have to watch NC State football . So Florence is actually doing him a favor
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