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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Hurricane force wind gusts made it well inland on last night's Euro run. Given how saturated the ground will be you'll only need 40-45 KT gusts to start seeing a lot of trees come down.

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metwannabe said:
Yeah I was just looking at this and I could see it start to gain some latitude soon

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I am actually not sure that it will gain much latitude today. The stronger she becomes, I did notice the other level above this (for steering) the ridge to the north was actually a bit stronger. So, I think a basic W (westerly) movement for today looks possible. I would say maybe 275-290 heading?
 
I know this has already been posted but there was a shift south in the EPS clustering last night towards SC, hopefully this doesn't become a trend in NWP over the next day or so.

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NorthGaWinter4 said:


Wouldn’t this have major impacts for north Georgia too? Wherever it hits it shows a stall....... not good
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To get major impacts in GA including areas like Atlanta & Macon, you'll need to see this storm take a track south of Charleston, towards Savannah &/or the SC/GA border. That solution unfortunately is still on the table.
 
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deltadog03 said:
I am actually not sure that it will gain much latitude today. The stronger she becomes, I did notice the other level above this (for steering) the ridge to the north was actually a bit stronger. So, I think a basic W (westerly) movement for today looks possible. I would say maybe 275-290 heading?
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Agreed it would have a WNW trajectory at the next level, very close to the NHC track.... either way she's looking mean now and if she's going to start to feel the weakness and gain any latitude it's now
 
The awesome, terrible beauty of these storms never cease to amaze...
 

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MichaelAndrews said:
Today should paint a very clear picture of where this bad boy is headed, nobody is out in the clear yet
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I think it’ll take another day or two before things clear up a whole lot. We have mostly converged on a hit, but the location is still quite variable.
 
Yeah at your location you need a massive shift south or a massive shift Northeast to not feel significant impacts. The Southward shift of the Euro last night brought very minimal impacts here.
SD said:
I still like absolutely nothing of what I am seeing from the models. The southward Euro and EPS not ideal, the northward GFS not ideal, the FV3 splits the difference and sucks too.
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metwannabe said:
Yeah at your location you need a massive shift south or a massive shift Northeast to not feel significant impacts. The Southward shift of the Euro last night brought very minimal impacts here.

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Yeah that southward track really takes the northern tier of NC out of the woods, another 50 miles south of what the Euro had a good part of NC is out of the woods from significant wind damage north of the 74/76 corridor.

I'm not sure if we can get this much farther south though..
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah at your location you need a massive shift south or a massive shift Northeast to not feel significant impacts. The Southward shift of the Euro last night brought very minimal impacts here.

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I just text him and told him to look on the bright side. When the power goes out he won’t have to watch NC State football . So Florence is actually doing him a favor


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