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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

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More convection building in on the south side of the storm too, she is def gaining strength now. Looks like the whole thing is expanding in size too.
 
What's the chances of her stopping sooner than what models show? That ridge is very noticeable and pressing down pretty hard on Flo, makes you wonder if she gets force further due west than wnw?
 
accu35 said:
What's the chances of her stopping sooner than what models show? That ridge is very noticeable and pressing down pretty hard on Flo, makes you wonder if she gets force further due west than wnw?
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You aren't kidding, like a slow motion pancaking effect

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eyewall open to the SE per recon, of course a VDM earlier had NA for the eye...

looks like they are leaving and next fix is due around 730am et
 
Heading SW at hour 72......just offshore near CHS at 980mb...would still be a hurricane for sure.
 
GaWx said:
After hitting CHS hours 72-78 turns more westward. Should stay N of SAV.
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I would say this run is pretty close to last nights so far...a bit further West (inland) but really not that much. Either way, lines up pretty much on the southern part of track with NHC track. (actually a little south of there southern track)
 
0Z Euro qpf 16-24" Georgetown NE to NE of ILM and going 75 miles inland. Columbia, Fayetteville: 8-12"; Charlotte 8"; CHS: 6-8"; RDU/GSO 6"
 
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Per current satellite loops, I don't think Flo is moving that much more westward. I think that's the old eye moving west but newer larger eye surrounding it moving NW imo.
 
0z Euro precip, obviously don't take this verbatim, models often underestimate tropical rainfall fyi but 12-15" possible inland whoever gets under the heaviest banding. I personally think the Euro is a smidge too far south and the heaviest rains will be closer to NC at the least but we'll see.
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0Z EPS mean slightly south of operational again. I strongly suspect a south bias of EPS vs operational as I've been noticing this on most Florence runs for days. Otherwise, I'd be more concerned even way down here. I would be concerned in CHS for sure though. About half the members move SW offshore SC and other half on coast or in SC. Fwiw, the members cover SC and even most of GA with more than a handful of TS+s even coming west into S GA this weekend. For here, I don't know whether or not to ignore these southern members and assume they're due to southern bias or not. They're such outliers vs other models. Opinions welcomed.

Edit: After a closer look, it appears per these EPS members that the crucial benchmark is just N of 34N when they start moving SW. The ones then onshore largely stay there moving SW while those offshore largely stay offshore down to lower SC or GA
 
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it better turn due W now if it wants to hit SC/NC line like they say. and does it look like the ridging to the N might have weakened???

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