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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

I would say a Wilmington to Morehead city landfall, or darn near close, looks likely at this point for sure. Where does it go from there.....Moves SW off shore, or on the coastline?
 
deltadog03 said:
I would say a Wilmington to Morehead city landfall, or darn near close, looks likely at this point for sure. Where does it go from there.....Moves SW off shore, or on the coastline?
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It’s tough to know since models vary wildly from the GFS to the Euro which is the farthest south with the wsw to sw bend. My money would be on this staying near the NC/SC line like the GFS shows but who knows with Florence. The rainfall implications will be HUGE for whoever ends up on the intense banding in the N side of the storm.
 
BHS1975 said:
What makes you think that?


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It does look like it's moving wnw now and very slow but at the same time it doesn't looked as "pancaked" as it did last nigh, even looks like cirrus unobstructed flow to the north....
 
The eye is trying to close off on radar. Deep convection attempting to wrap around per satellite. This will likely be a cat 2 at landfall but due to the large wind field the major surge and power outages well inland will be bad. Freshwater flooding from 10-30” of rain will be devastating too. Btw radar confirms she’s on more of a wnw heading now exactly as modeled.
E147FB93-87D8-4237-809F-2CDC9365E28B.png
 
Updated WPC rainfall, looks like the heaviest band will setup somewhere between the US 64 & I-20 corridors with US HWY 74 & the NC/SC border seeming to be a good middle ground of scenarios atm. Areas that get stuck in this band could easily get over a foot (or more) of rain.

wpc_acc_precip_northcarolina_168 (1).png
 
Recon is heading for the center, let’s see what they find. My guess is max winds are probably about 100mph at the surface, pressure 952 with a broad wind field instead of concentrated around the eye like you normally see.
 
its got major characteristics... large wind field and storm surge.. technically no it's not a major.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Why does the title still say Major Hurricane Florence ? A Cat 2 isnt major is it ?
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She was a major hurricane, so typically the thread will keep the name so that some don't think it's just a TS and was never a hurricane. It can be changed down but it'll get changed back later. I don't see a reason to change it though since she is borderline at the moment.
 
Recon found extrap pressure of 954 so she’s maintained or slightly strengthened overnight. So far winds are low but over a huge area. Highest flight level wind is 80kts.
 
With it being a cat 1 could it regain cat 2 or 3 status as it passes over the Gulf Stream?
 
According to Alan Huffman, Fran had a pressure of 954 MB when it made landfall near Wilmington.
 
Did I miss something last night? Did the Euro have her moving up the NC coastline and on north?
 
Lots of unnecessary comments in this thread . This is still a hurricane , the threat to life and property is still high regardless of what your opinion might be. This is the only warning , banter comments will be deleted and those that make the choice to complain because the storm is weaker will be banned it does not matter if you’ve been on here for two days or from day one . There is a banter thread for a reason , it’s not complicated


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People keep focusing on the category and maximum winds. Good reminder that the larger and slower the storm means the wind might not be as high, but it effects a larger area and the wind lasts for a longer amount of time. Also means the rain lasts longer and effects a larger area.
 
Also such a right gradient, I almost get blanked while RDU gets 26...
Kylo said:
I guess that's what it is, I see him post tracks from it. Such a difference between models and we are at go time.
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