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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

I'm concerned about people in the southern part of the state, many of them are just getting Federal disaster aid from the flooding of Matthew two years ago they certainly don't need this.
SD said:
Yeah that southward track really takes the northern tier of NC out of the woods, another 50 miles south of what the Euro had a good part of NC is out of the woods from significant wind damage north of the 74/76 corridor.

I'm not sure if we can get this much farther south though..
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Storm5 said:
I just text him and told him to look on the bright side. When the power goes out he won’t have to watch NC State football . So Florence is actually doing him a favor


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It'll be interesting to see if they play....we played ND in the midst of Matthew.
 
Reading up on Fran (96) as it's the closest landfalling major hurricane vs the NHC track for Florence. Just mind boggling that ﹰTopsail Island was overwashed even though Fran was a CAT 3 and hit a good 60 miles south.
 
Florence definitely was moving WNW, however, she appears to have decreased her angle of movement back down a bit. Good news is that we are getting fresh data from one of the panes at the moment, so we will see what 12Z is vs 0Z, which looked worrying to me as I see a clear trend more towards SC, mainly the EPS and HWRF.
 
I have a question. Does anyone know the protocol for evacuations? If an area looks to get hurricane force winds and over a foot of rain well inland, would they try to evacuate the area? I'm thinking of areas like Fayetteville to possibly areas like the Triad or Triangle depending on how the storm tracks? It's certainly a life threatening situation with the likelihood of many being without power for over a week.
 
Here's an interesting article worth reading with the current model wars going on. The FV3 outperformed the Euro when forecasting Hurricane Lane and the impacts to Hawaii in the 4-5 day range and was neck and neck with the Euro inside 72 hours. Although it's a different steering setup and situation with Florence it's possible the FV3 model could have the more accurate picture on track... it also aligns quite closely with the NHC as of the 06z run. Thoughts?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...ne-lane/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.5af2b035eaa8
 
Are the 6z and 18z hurricane models run on new data or are they like the other off cycle stuff and just a rerun with a different starting point? Also, I am not liking the new satellite page or just haven't figured it out yet.
 
packfan98 said:
I have a question. Does anyone know the protocol for evacuations? If an area looks to get hurricane force winds and over a foot of rain well inland, would they try to evacuate the area? I'm thinking of areas like Fayetteville to possibly areas like the Triad or Triangle depending on how the storm tracks? It's certainly a life threatening situation with the likelihood of many being without power for over a week.
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Typically the government will tell people when it gets within 4 or 3 days, then they will do zones starting with the highest chance for highest impact. As for inland, they never will call evacuations there unless you live in a flood-prone area.

As for the storm at the moment, microwave imagery looks bad. The eye appears to be shrinking and heavy convection building up.
 
I usually don't put as much faith into the GFS/GEFS/Fv3 camp vs the EPS in cases like this where we have a strong tropical cyclone riding the edge of a rapidly building subtropical high that'll only be reinforced by Florence's upper level outflow thru -PV deposition. I've seen this movie play out so many times and know better than to ride the underdispersive & poleward biased GFS/GEFS suites. Fv3 seems to be doing better in this respect w/ more realistic intensity & track but I'll still take the Euro/EPS over it.
 
So 12z models will have data from the first real recon flight from this morning!?
 
Going to be interesting to see what the models do today. It looked like they were coming into agreement until the Euro went south again last night. Looks like the NHC track stayed the same, though.
 
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