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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Kylo said:
Not that it matters that much but this may not be a hurricane at landfall, or at most minimal, another 24-36 hours to go. Asymmetric center, no southern half of storm.

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Dunno about landfall but currently I'd say 105. Another thing that also stands out is the cooling of temps within the eye itself per low and mid level water vapor bands.
 
Someone on another discussion said that the storm is looking better and shear is abating. Folks here are saying the opposite. Which is it??!
 
no longer a major

...FLORENCE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL STILL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 73.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM ESE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM ESE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES
 
3k has quite the gradient. Less than an 1" in Raleigh and 12-18" down in FAY. 30" by ILM! Still going at hour 60 too.

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Kylo said:
This is a Florence discussion thread, it's reasonable to discuss whether it's looking healthy.
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That's fine, but to keep saying things like, "The southern side of Florence looks poor, it probably won't be a hurricane when it makes landfall." There's nothing reasonable about that at all. imo
 
Kylo said:
3k has quite the gradient. Less than an 1" in Raleigh and 12-18" down in FAY. 30" by ILM! Still going at hour 60 too.

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That’s unrealistic. The precip shield will expand north more than that. Not saying that Fayetteville wouldn’t get more than Raleigh, but that kind of gradient is unlikely, IMO.
 
WeatherLC said:
Someone on another discussion said that the storm is looking better and shear is abating. Folks here are saying the opposite. Which is it??!
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NHC's first paragraph of it's latest discussion thread is fairly telling. This is not a healthy hurricane, which is ultimately good for the coast of NC. Still, the flooding with the winds, even if they are lower than expected will be nasty.

Satellite data and reports from Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
significant changes in the structure of Florence and the
environment near the storm since the last advisory. Microwave
satellite imagery shows that the convection on the southern side of
the storm has been disrupted, and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the eyewall now wraps less than
50 percent of the way around the center. The aircraft also reports
that the hurricane again has concentric wind maxima, the inner at a
radius 20-30 n mi and the outer at 50-60 n mi. The convection seems
to have been affected by 20-25 kt of southerly vertical wind shear,
most of which appears to be due to strong winds between 200-250 mb
seen in dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV jet. The central
pressure has risen to 957 mb, and the maximum 700-mb flight-level
winds reported so far are 103 kt. Based on the latter data, the
initial intensity reduced to a probably generous 95 kt.
 
RollTide18 said:
Looking at the map, NHC doesnt expect it to get up to major status anymore. Wow just yesterday it was expected to get up to 155 mph, shear was definitely underestimated.
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Same thing with winter storms here. 99% of the time they are not as big as modeled, even just a few days out.
 
:(
Rain Cold said:
That’s unrealistic. The precip shield will expand north more than that. Not saying that Fayetteville wouldn’t get more than Raleigh, but that kind of gradient is unlikely, IMO.
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Hmmmmm,,I remember you saying something like this during a coastal snowstorm not too long ago!???? :D
But really, with the forward speed increasing and the stall not as pronounced, that would increase wind damage a little?
 
deltadog03 said:
NHC shoved the track south, from what I can tell.
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Actually a little north...

The new forecast track lies between the HCCA corrected
consensus model and the other consensus aids, and it is nudged just
a little to the north of the previous track.
 
Tarheel1 said:
:(
Hmmmmm,,I remember you saying something like this during a coastal snowstorm not too long ago!???? :D
But really, with the forward speed increasing and the stall not as pronounced, that would increase wind damage a little?
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Haha

Yeah, it could, especially for areas farther inland.
 
couple of tidbits from the latest NHC update...

"reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the eyewall now wraps less than
50 percent of the way around the center."

"the initial intensity reduced to a probably generous 95 kt."

"While Florence has weakened below major hurricane intensity, the
wind field of the hurricane continues to grow in size. This
evolution will produce storm surges similar to that of a more
intense, but smaller, hurricane, and thus the storm surge values
seen in the previous advisory are still valid. The threat of
rainfall has also not diminished, and these impacts will cover a
large area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves."

Just shows how unpredictable some hurricanes can be, but otherwise still a major problem for the Carolinas.
 
ICON quite a bit west than 18z. Pounding RC and SD.
 
Lol Cat2 now still with plenty of time to fall apart even more. Yes yes I know, flooding will be the biggest threat I get it but come on it will be a miracle if this thing can hit as a Cat 1 at this point. I’m watching the news now and it’s pretty clear they wrote all of their catastrophic one liners before Florence decided to fall apart
 
SD said:
Icon is west of its previous runs but still north of most everything

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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ICON definitely brings many more in NC into play with wind and flood potential..... still crazy model madness this close to landfall
 
ICON now has Florence moving into South Carolina as a weak tropical storm at 63 hours.
 
The storm looks like trash. It will be lucky to hit as a TS. Dry air from the SW has absolutely wrecked it. I think it was undergoing an EWRC when that started and it just went downhill from there. Couple that with the shear she is currently fighting and it’s lights out for major cane Florence.

Hopefully we can get this thing down to a wet TD that gives us some ample rain and moves on.
 
If Flo is weakening that's a very good thing in my book. Yesterday she was expected to be a cat 5 so anything below that is a blessing from God. I think about the 200 people on that NC island that stayed at there home, and that there lives are in danger along the coast line, with a drop in strength or more could very well spare them more now than before
 
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