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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

BIG FROSTY said:
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  1. Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 1m1 minute ago
    GFS model bias is to break ridge down too much, Very warm SST plus model bias has always been mainstay of ideas here since a week ago today.
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What I always thought too, but no deny the Bermuda ridge has been trending weaker the past few runs on the GFS and I think it's because of the upper low in the east atlantic has been getting stronger. The SE Canada ridge has been trending stronger on the GFS so it's not climbing north. We better hope the GFS is correct about the Bermuda ridge breaking down.
 
CMC never really strengthens Florence, lowest pressure I see is 979.

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Kylo said:
What I always thought too, but no deny the Bermuda ridge has been trending weaker the past few runs on the GFS and I think it's because of the upper low in the east atlantic has been getting stronger. The SE Canada ridge has been trending stronger on the GFS so it's not climbing north. We better hope the GFS is correct about the Bermuda ridge breaking down.
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I think it’s too expansive with Florence at 500mb which gives it a northern bias. It was too far north with Jebi for the same reason.


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GFS gets flo all the way down to 908mb as it rotates just east of the OBX for days on end. I know waters near the OBX are extremely warm right now but damn
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
GFS gets flo all the way down to 908mb as it rotates just east of the OBX for days on end. I know waters near the OBX are extremely warm right now but damn
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GFS is not ocean coupled and what it shows would not happen. Dry air from land and upwelling wouldn’t allow it to keep strengthening like the GFS shows. I think the GFS is also a bit too far east. Euro tonight is important. As a summary here’s what models have shown tonight so far.
GFS - Slightly east and stalls.
CMC - Basically the same landfall location
ICON - Slightly east
NAM - West and faster
UK - Huge east shift, can it really be trusted at this point? Stalls it offshore by hour 120.

Euro, FV3 and NAVGEM are the 3 other main runs left.
 
HWRF is slightly east of the 18z, maybe a little east of Wilmington

Edit, into Wilmington again, a little weaker than previous run

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My folks in Fayetteville aren't gonna have a good time to say the least if that came to fruition. Not much room for error on that track here in Charlotte though, 50-100 miles is the difference between just a breeze, extra clouds, and some showers vs seeing 50+ knot gusts, several inches of rain, etc.
 
Webberweather53 said:
My folks in Fayetteville aren't gonna have a good time to say the least if that came to fruition. Not much room for error on that track here in Charlotte though, 50-100 miles is the difference between just a breeze, extra clouds, and some showers vs seeing 50+ knot gusts, several inches of rain, etc.
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Keep forgetting you’re located in Charlotte now. Certainly getting uncomfortable here in Wake county....
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Keep forgetting you’re located in Charlotte now. Certainly getting uncomfortable here in Wake county....
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Yeah if I was in Fayetteville or Raleigh right now, I'd probably be very nervous & would batten down the hatches and expect/prepare the worst (no power 1-2 weeks). I'm just weary at the moment here in Charlotte but there's like no room for error, 2 counties over is getting hammered on this Euro run. 80 KT (95 mph) gusts make into Raleigh this run, would be sure to do considerable damage and knock out power for many.

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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah if I was in Fayetteville or Raleigh right now, I'd probably be very nervous & would batten down the hatches and expect/prepare the worst (no power 1-2 weeks). I'm just weary at the moment here in Charlotte but there's like no room for error, 2 counties over is getting hammered on this Euro run. 80 KT (95 mph) gusts make into Raleigh this run, would be sure to do considerable damage and knock out power for many.

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Yeah it certainly seems like the euro is dialing in. It moves a little faster this run but still takes nearly 48 hours to meander across Central NC. This is becoming very real quick
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Yeah it certainly seems like the euro is dialing in. It moves a little faster this run but still takes nearly 48 hours to meander across Central NC. This is becoming very real quick
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This goes for everyone in this forum to in central or eastern NC, make sure you're prepared to lose power for up to 2 weeks from this, if you have not prepared do so ASAP, do not wait, this storm is not a joke. Ensure you and your loved ones have plenty of food (ones you don't have to cook, dried foods for ex), water, rechargeable battery packs can help too, have a noaa weather radio, plenty of gas in your vehicles (trucks may not be able to get into the area & restock gas stations w/ gasoline, etc.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Florence is moving south of west still atm, the latest BEST track file has this as a 60 KT tropical storm at 24.5N as of about 2-3am.
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I was going to say the same thing. It's been moving that direction for the last 2 frames
 
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