ForsythSnow
Moderator
Not the loop again... It's going to stay there for several days again.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
CMC goes through SC and right into N GA this run.
Brent
Member
what exactly is the GFS doing? No wonder the NHC called it an outlier 
Storm5
Member
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Pretty significant jump north for the CMC
00z
12z
00z
12z
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Well considering how far south it was, actually matches up very well with Euro and UK now. The GFS on the other hand reminding us that we need to make American models great again.
Storm5
Member
Pretty significant jump north for the CMC
00z
12z
No surprise other than the ukmet it’s been the southern outlier
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Cary_Snow95
Member
Depending on what the Euro shows, I would narrow the target zone down to Southern South Carolina to OBX
Storm5
Member
The GFS could be correct . At this point all options are still in play
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
GFS is being goofy. Probably too far north, and CMC too far south.
Brent
Member
UKMET into Myrtle Beach, very close to the CMC/Euro
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
May be the first time I’ve ever seen a model show a cat 4/5 hurricane move SW off the east coast as the GFS depicts. Smh
Cary_Snow95
Member
Hard camp to beat. I'm willing to bet the Euro holds serve for the most part. As for the GFS I would assume it's error with intensity is playing a major role in its funky loop de whirl
Brent
Member
now the GFS headed for the Carolinas for real at 198
3 days of beach erosion in the OBX
3 days of beach erosion in the OBX
Storm5
Member
Why is that hard to believe ? The steering flow collapses and the trough is way back to the west . It could easily stall and meander for a few days
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Brent
Member
because a weaker storm is more likely to be steered by the westerlies(the usual flow in the Atlantic)
a stronger storm is more likely to feel a weakness and pull north
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But not a Cat 4/5, sure it could loop but it would be much weaker at that point
Cary_Snow95
Member
It does seem this morning that the window for a re curve re opened slightly
Storm5
Member
Yes it would be much weaker at that point because of many things upwelling being a big one . The point I was making was a stalling/ looping solution isn’t that unreasonable given the lack of steering and the fact the trough is way back out west . It’s clearly shown on this gfs run as the trough finally kicks it east a week from Tuesday .
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Storm5
Member
We all know the gfs has all kinds of issues . But holy hell , loop the 500mb chart from 00z last night to 12z today and look at the complete flips 
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Storm5
Member
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Yellow Snow
Member
The Governor of South Carolina is about to hold a press briefing regarding Florence:
pcbjr
Member
It's in our Wiki, but if you want to compare runs, for a few models, this is a great tool ... http://www.wxforecaster.com/runtorun/all.htmlWe all know the gfs has all kinds of issues . But holy hell , loop the 500mb chart from 00z last night to 12z today and look at the complete flips
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I'm really starting to wonder about the overall strength of Florence atleast in the next two days. Firstly the circulation keeps sucking in very dry air from south and from around the other "system" from the NW. Secondly, that other circulation is almost acting like a TUTT and is clearly visible on WV. Unless it fills or moves on, it may end up keeping shear higher for longer and keep allowing the dry air to penetrate the core. It is also helping draw the dry air NW.
NoSnowATL
Member
Wouldn’t this help keep this hurricane on a western path longer?
Kylo
Member
Agreed. A slightly weaker ridge would get you a coastal scraper like the GFS shows.
The UK shifted NE this run too. Good to see.
Storm5
Member
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
New flight just took off from Florida, likely surveying the environment out ahead of the storm.
Indeed, as long as the NE shifts shift it on ots.... otherwise we are back in the cross hairs. Hoping a full ots turn with this one for everyone's sake
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Have to hope the GFS is onto something, but it is not usually the model you want to bet on.
BHS1975
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
This Euro run seems to be betting more on RI almost immediately having the pressure at 979 in 18 hours.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Euro coming in stronger at 12z.. already down to 984 compared to 1003mb on yesterdays 12z
Sounds north. Let’s seeEuro coming in stronger at 12z.. already down to 984 compared to 1003mb on yesterdays 12z
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Perhaps the NOAA research data was ingested into this Euro run, the intensity is actually realistic early on.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Yeah pretty big intensity discrepancy between the previous euro and the cmc compared to the new run.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
HWRF seems to be coming in very far south and is probably the furthest south now. Passing very close to the Northern Bahamas.
BHS1975
Member
I heard the ukie came in north. Anyone got maps?
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I think it's also attributable to how these models accept and assimilate certain types of data, the "acceptable" range during the processing stage for HH data is much larger than it is for satellite estimates for example in the ECMWF model. This acceptable data range is determined by nearby data so you could probably imagine given how tight the pressure gradients are across the scale of a TC (esp a small one) why ECMWF would do this.