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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

WYFF is getting some good practice for the coming winter season. The hype train is in full force today, and rightfully so.
 
Rain Cold said:
Florence will likely go through at least one ERC prior to landfall. It's not out of the realm of possibility that she never gets back to Cat 4 status. A well-timed ERC would be very beneficial for coastal and inland areas. However, she will be slowing as she approaches the Gulf Stream, so that could act provide a burst of energy prior to landfall. Orientation and strength of the ridge is still up for debate, which will impact how much she slows, when and if she stalls, and the degree of the westward component of motion she maintains as she comes ashore. My experience tells me that the GFS solution is unlikely. The ridging late this season has been anomalously strong, so some weight has to be given to that. The European model is the best, no doubt, but it is also the southernmost model at this time. Given all of that, my expectation is for a landfall north of the NC/SC line. I also think we could continue to see northward adjustments to the track over the next 3-4 days, maybe Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras when all is said and done. I've seen that happen a lot in the past. At any rate, it's a very interesting and potentially dire situation to watch unfold, fraught with variables, the precarious alignment of which, could make the difference between a land-falling hurricane and a catastrophic, once-in-a-lifetime event.
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Yep when and where the ERC occurs is critical. If it occurs close to the coast it probably gets a good breathe of dry air. However if it times it just right, it could complete it's ERC and come in roaring across the Gulf Stream as an intensifying hurricane which would be unimaginable. No model will get that part correct consistently.
 
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TWC seems almost giddy about the track, they get to talk about the Mid Atlantic now! SMDH
 
Another interesting fact pointed out by the NHC. Also has to do with the destructive potential of this storm. The fact that it has doubled in size in the last 12 hours. Edit: That was actually the extent of the hurricane force winds.
 
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ForsythSnow said:
The eye doesn't seem as smooth as it did earlier. Maybe it's shrinking again or it's coming up on an ERC. Either that or I'm seeing things.
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There for a bit not too long ago, looked like the southern eyewall was getting thin and looked off kilter. Probably a hiccup
 
Snowfan said:
If the current forecast track holds, it would make landfall near the NC/SC border.
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TWC, WRAL (my local here) say Hatteras but I haven't a clue what they are basing that on. If you go by the NHC then Id say yes, southeastern NC (Wilmington). In any event, even the left part of the storm can still do some serious damage I know.
 
Tarheel1 said:
There for a bit not too long ago, looked like the southern eyewall was getting thin and looked off kilter. Probably a hiccup
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Chris Justice just said the Euro was the major outlier... I mean I know it’s a little on the south side but I wouldn’t call it an “outlier”. Why are mets so afraid to bash our crappy American model? The GFS has been OTS doing loop de loops for 4 days now smh
 
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