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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

SoutheastRidge said:
What is your storm total ?
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Not 100% certain since I was a dummy and got the wrong batteries for my weather station to back up I lost data for a good part of yesterday. I think a safe guess is 4-4.5. There is a corcorahs report just a couple of miles away of 3.8 and that was through 7am

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Tarheelwx said:
How likely is it that the upper winds will work down to the surface as the Euro is showing? I didn't find any other models that were showing 50-70 mph winds at the surface in the western half of NC.
TW
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Euro has been high on gusts I think the 0z run friday said 80mph gusts here. But there is still some potential for high gusts especially as you increase your precip rates and/or elevation.

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From JB this morning!!

Euro shows tightening of gradient between Florence and mountains creating alignment for transfer to surface of strong winds upstate SC in NC, Wind gust 50-70 mph this afternoon and tonight well inland( all the way to Charolotte/Greenville, Spartanburg. Tornado threat increasing
 
F4117F9B-683F-4761-B8A3-151638DC02BA.png Quite the gradient! Almost 5-6” difference, in a single county!
 
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BIG FROSTY said:
From JB this morning!!

Euro shows tightening of gradient between Florence and mountains creating alignment for transfer to surface of strong winds upstate SC in NC, Wind gust 50-70 mph this afternoon and tonight well inland( all the way to Charolotte/Greenville, Spartanburg. Tornado threat increasing
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No way! TWC says my highest gust will be 30mph!? JB hype meter, pegged at 10!
 
This wind has been a warm wind. The low temp today was 82. So weird that considering a north wind, it's been a warm wind.
 
The arw2 might be the closest model I've seen to reality on this band

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SD said:
No kidding and staying up for the fv3 gfs then getting up for work makes for a sleepy weather nerd

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Ha just wait till winter!
 
SD said:
The arw2 might be the closest model I've seen to reality on this band

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Yeah. The 3k NAM has it well south at hour 1. Does it have the right coordinates in its code?
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah. The 3k NAM has it well south at hour 1. Does it have the right coordinates in its code?
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Slight shift northward with the mega firehouse...

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BIG FROSTY said:
May be, NWS says only 35mph gusts here!! Will be interesting to see, We'll know by tomorrow!!! Stay safe down there, stock up on TS snacks! :)
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Doubled down on snacks the last few days! And will have a cookout when power goes out, to use up all the meat! Come on down!!
 
3k NAM also slight north shift, I think it's anyone's guess where that death band will finally setup, 25-50 huge difference especially for Shane, RC and the triangle peeps

edit: actually maybe shift north for the eastern edge but for Cen NC just narrows the band and slight south, who knows.... I need to stop and just watch or better yet I'll go outside, sun shining here
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Rain Cold said:
Yeah. The 3k NAM has it well south at hour 1. Does it have the right coordinates in its code?
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Yeah man not sure. The one thing I did notice is they both want to bring an enhanced area of fgen through our area late today into tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be too surprised to see a larger rain shield with a band of very heavy rain pushing northward into our area and most of the triangle

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Cloud tops cooling off of the NC coast and pushing inland. Radar starting to fill back in to the east

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Starting to get rotation with these cells on the edge of the death band. If the sun comes out we’re really gonna be in trouble.

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BHS1975 said:
Starting to get rotation with these cells on the edge of the death band. If the sun comes out we’re really gonna be in trouble.

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Headed for parts of SE wake

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Unless other credible models have anything close to the winds the Euro has, I’d expect it to verify way too high based on runs like that for other well inland SE TCs as these inland high wind forecasts appear to be due to a bias.
 
GaWx said:
Unless other credible models have anything close to the winds the Euro has, I’d expect it to verify way too high based on runs like that for other well inland SE TCs as these inland high wind forecasts appear to be due to a bias.
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What the Euro is picking up on and other models catching up, is the mixing that’s going to occur when you gain some elevation causing a tunnel effect between the NE side to the storms and the Blue Ridge.
 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
What the Euro is picking up on and other models catching up, is the mixing that’s going to occur when you gain some elevation causing a tunnel effect between the NE side to the storms and the Blue Ridge.
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I still think it has a bias based on recent storms but appreciate your reply and maybe it will be right this time. Have other low end TSs in a similar position in the past lead to wind gusts of 50-70 mph in Charlotte and Greenville? I’m talking other than in isolated severe tstorms. Are any other models close to as high as Euro? I’m thinking more like 30-50 is likely in Charlotte and GSP. Those are the cities JB referred to.
 
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Not sure if I am in the clear or not up here. The rain and wind have both stopped. It has been like that all morning.
 
Still raining pretty good here.
 
The track of the center is S of CAE, the heaviest rain stays in NC!??! Winning
 
Conditions are noticeably going downhill here as the day progresses, wind consistently gusting up to about 35-40 mph w/ steady light rain. The bands to the east entering Moore and Montgomery counties will likely partially rain themselves out before reaching Charlotte but expecting things to get worse during the overnight hours. Hopefully the trees around here hold up. USGS observing sites peg the storm-total rainfall just over an inch.
 
Several of my friends that chased the storm down in Wilmington are driving west on I-40 trying to get back to Raleigh, the water is so high in the ditches it's just a few inches away from covering the entire road and they barely squeezed past the section of I-40 near Warsaw before it was closed a while ago.
 
Florence is in no hurry to move. looks almost stalled but the advisory has west at 2 mph, and it appears that way if you look closely. Certainly further south than many models portrayed it today, but certainly well north of what the Euro had a few days ago.
 
Here comes the rain again
Falling on my head like a memory
Falling on my head like a new emotion
 
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