• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

“Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
13h

Euro shows tightening of gradient between Florence and mountains creating alignment for transfer to surface of strong winds upstate SC in NC, Wind gust 50-70 mph this afternoon and tonight well inland( all the way to Charolotte/Greenville, Spartanburg. Tornado threat increasing”

This tweet from JB is in support of the 0Z Euro. So far, this looks like fake Euro news to me but we’ll see what tonight brings before we know for sure. The highest at Charlotte, Greenville, and Spartanburg that I’ve seen so far is in the 30s. I strongly believe the Euro is overdoing inland winds like it has done on a number of past occasions with TCs due to a bias and am going 30-50 for highest gusts as I mentioned earlier knowing about this bias. The Euro is far from being the Carnac the Magnificent of models.

Also, keep in mind that JB tends to treat the Euro as all knowing, including its incorrect having Flo stay offshore til S SC, which he chose to believe. He has since admitted it was wrong.

Mack or others living in the GSP to Charlotte corridor, any 50-70 mph winds yet?
 
Last edited:
Having personally experienced just over 30 inches in a freak storm system in 2016 that was tropical-ish but not named, my thoughts and prayers are with everyone in the Carolinas having to go through this. It's good to see Flo slowly weakening, but those rain totals are going to bite, unfortunately, when the rivers rise.
 
GaWx said:
“Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
13h

Euro shows tightening of gradient between Florence and mountains creating alignment for transfer to surface of strong winds upstate SC in NC, Wind gust 50-70 mph this afternoon and tonight well inland( all the way to Charolotte/Greenville, Spartanburg. Tornado threat increasing”

This tweet from JB is in support of the 0Z Euro. So far, this looks like fake Euro news to me but we’ll see what tonight brings before we know for sure. The highest at Charlotte, Greenville, and Spartanburg that I’ve seen so far is in the 30s. I strongly believe the Euro is overdoing inland winds like it has done on a number of past occasions with TCs due to a bias and am going 30-50 for highest gusts as I mentioned earlier knowing about this bias. The Euro is far from being the Carnac the Magnificent of models.

Also, keep in mind that JB tends to treat the Euro as all knowing, including its incorrect having Flo stay offshore til S SC, which he chose to believe. He has since admitted it was wrong.

Mack or others living in the GSP to Charlotte corridor, any 50-70 mph winds yet?
Click to expand...
Highest Gust I've had is 33 in northwestern upstate.


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
“Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
13h

Euro shows tightening of gradient between Florence and mountains creating alignment for transfer to surface of strong winds upstate SC in NC, Wind gust 50-70 mph this afternoon and tonight well inland( all the way to Charolotte/Greenville, Spartanburg. Tornado threat increasing”

This tweet from JB is in support of the 0Z Euro. So far, this looks like fake Euro news to me but we’ll see what tonight brings before we know for sure. The highest at Charlotte, Greenville, and Spartanburg that I’ve seen so far is in the 30s. I strongly believe the Euro is overdoing inland winds like it has done on a number of past occasions with TCs due to a bias and am going 30-50 for highest gusts as I mentioned earlier knowing about this bias. The Euro is far from being the Carnac the Magnificent of models.

Also, keep in mind that JB tends to treat the Euro as all knowing, including its incorrect having Flo stay offshore til S SC, which he chose to believe. He has since admitted it was wrong.

Mack or others living in the GSP to Charlotte corridor, any 50-70 mph winds yet?
Click to expand...

Just had some family in Matthews, NC lose a huge oak tree, they estimated winds are gusting 40-50mph right now. The closest official station to them has gusted to 45mph officially so far.
 
GaWx said:
“Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
13h

Euro shows tightening of gradient between Florence and mountains creating alignment for transfer to surface of strong winds upstate SC in NC, Wind gust 50-70 mph this afternoon and tonight well inland( all the way to Charolotte/Greenville, Spartanburg. Tornado threat increasing”

This tweet from JB is in support of the 0Z Euro. So far, this looks like fake Euro news to me but we’ll see what tonight brings before we know for sure. The highest at Charlotte, Greenville, and Spartanburg that I’ve seen so far is in the 30s. I strongly believe the Euro is overdoing inland winds like it has done on a number of past occasions with TCs due to a bias and am going 30-50 for highest gusts as I mentioned earlier knowing about this bias. The Euro is far from being the Carnac the Magnificent of models.

Also, keep in mind that JB tends to treat the Euro as all knowing, including its incorrect having Flo stay offshore til S SC, which he chose to believe. He has since admitted it was wrong.

Mack or others living in the GSP to Charlotte corridor, any 50-70 mph winds yet?
Click to expand...
Not quite. I’m expecting a few gusts that wake me up around 2am. Anything less and I will be greatly disappointed. Atlantic moisture usually doesn’t transfer to the upstate area unless it’s a fast moving hurricane i.e. Hugo
 
GaWx said:
“Joe Bastardi
@BigJoeBastardi
·
13h

Euro shows tightening of gradient between Florence and mountains creating alignment for transfer to surface of strong winds upstate SC in NC, Wind gust 50-70 mph this afternoon and tonight well inland( all the way to Charolotte/Greenville, Spartanburg. Tornado threat increasing”

This tweet from JB is in support of the 0Z Euro. So far, this looks like fake Euro news to me but we’ll see what tonight brings before we know for sure. The highest at Charlotte, Greenville, and Spartanburg that I’ve seen so far is in the 30s. I strongly believe the Euro is overdoing inland winds like it has done on a number of past occasions with TCs due to a bias and am going 30-50 for highest gusts as I mentioned earlier knowing about this bias. The Euro is far from being the Carnac the Magnificent of models.

Also, keep in mind that JB tends to treat the Euro as all knowing, including its incorrect having Flo stay offshore til S SC, which he chose to believe. He has since admitted it was wrong.

Mack or others living in the GSP to Charlotte corridor, any 50-70 mph winds yet?
Click to expand...
Nope, not even close! Best probably 25 mph, only thing down here are pine needles, barely any rain
 
Very appreciative of the weather we’re having today. I can’t remember the last time we went from scorching 90’s to clouds wind and rain for an entire day
 
Florence has become the furthest east NW moving tropical cyclone on record back to 1851 to later hit the CONUS as it was moving NW in the 46W to 47W area. The prior record holder was storm #5 of 1906, which moved NW starting at 48W. Florence did so between 46.6W and 47.9W.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Very appreciative of the weather we’re having today. I can’t remember the last time we went from scorching 90’s to clouds wind and rain for an entire day
Click to expand...
Johnny C and CJ , tag teaming the local weather again! Showed a future cast wind gusts animation from now till about 10 am tomorrow. There were a few hours, appx 4am-8am, that showed some gust reaching 40-45mph, so you might get to sleep in to about 4am. They also reported the highes gust at GSP was 35mph, for Larry.
 
GaWx said:
Florence has become the furthest east NW moving tropical cyclone on record back to 1851 to later hit the CONUS as it was moving NW in the 46W to 47W area. The prior record holder was storm #5 of 1906, which moved NW starting at 48W. Florence did so between 46.6W and 47.9W.
Click to expand...
How was the winter of 1906/7?
 
8AE458FE-1DC9-4D5E-9F8E-83CC5023777E.png Time sensitive, but at this point, the coc , is right about over Orangeburg, the Euro didn’t do to badly, that’s well S of CAE! Too bad all the rain is 250 miles+, to the N/NE/E!
 
09041810-2B57-4408-AAC7-6845A30DECEB.png This! Somebody in SE NC, is going to end up with 50”+ of rain!
 
And now a tornado warning for Wilmington.

Also got a special wx statement for wind gusts up to 35 mph here until 2 pm.
 
Man, that HRDPS model still gets 10” into southern Wake Co. no way that’s right. The RGEM gets 6” in. The 17z HrRrrr brings over 2” over the next 18 hrs. Iconically, the IRon shows only slightly over an inch. :)
 
1.32 overnight 6.54 measured total so far, hate I missing data from a good part of friday

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Rain Cold said:
Man, that HRDPS model still gets 10” into southern Wake Co. no way that’s right. The RGEM gets 6” in. The 17z HrRrrr brings over 2” over the next 18 hrs. Iconically, the IRon shows only slightly over an inch. :)
Click to expand...
Probably not that much but don't count it out either, just because the HRDPS is the closest I can find to reality at the moment.... it's light but steady rain here and that model as well as the RGEM only one's close to having rain up here
 
BHS1975 said:
Wouldn’t think there would be much left to develop into anything after being inland that long.
Click to expand...

Agreed. Only a small portion of the 51 members have a closed surface low and per another source this small number of members have SLPs all weaker than 1003 mb. Furthermore, I’m keeping in mind the near nightmare scenario the EPS just had on several runs with near half or more of the members having Flo stay offshore, move SW, and then hitting SC/GA as a strong TS or H. Nothing remotely close to that happened.
If that’s not enough, the last few GEFS have a handful of members with only a very weak low of 1,010+ mb milling around that never does much of anything. Furthermore, the 0Z GEPS has next to nothing. So, considering these points, I’m not the least bit worried about this right now as the possibility of anything of significance appears to be very low. I’m much more curious about what may or may not happen around 10/1 in the SW Caribbean.
 
Rain Cold said:
Man, that HRDPS model still gets 10” into southern Wake Co. no way that’s right. The RGEM gets 6” in. The 17z HrRrrr brings over 2” over the next 18 hrs. Iconically, the IRon shows only slightly over an inch. :)
Click to expand...
We are starting to see a slow shift in our flow at 850 and 700mb to more of a SE direction versus the E we had yesterday. This may be more efficient at pushing deeper moisture into the area today. Im curious to see if that area near Fay and ILM moves our way or to our SW. I do think 10 inches is aggressive though unless something changes drastically

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
Agreed. Only a small portion of the 51 members have a closed surface low and per another source this small number of members have SLPs all weaker than 1003 mb. Furthermore, I’m keeping in mind the near nightmare scenario the EPS just had on several runs with near half or more of the members having Flo stay offshore, move SW, and then hitting SC/GA as a strong TS or H. Nothing remotely close to that happened.
If that’s not enough, the last few GEFS have a handful of members with only a very weak low of 1,010+ mb milling around that never does much of anything. Furthermore, the 0Z GEPS has next to nothing. So, considering these points, I’m not the least bit worried about this right now as the possibility of anything of significance appears to be very low. I’m much more curious about what may or may not happen around 10/1 in the SW Caribbean.
Click to expand...

Very good points. Many of us (self included) put a little to much stock in the Euro/EPS and maybe chose to ignore what the other models were showing. This is not to say I won’t continue to put more confidence in the Euro/EPS and sometimes it just gets it wrong.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
We are starting to see a slow shift in our flow at 850 and 700mb to more of a SE direction versus the E we had yesterday. This may be more efficient at pushing deeper moisture into the area today. Im curious to see if that area near Fay and ILM moves our way or to our SW. I do think 10 inches is aggressive though unless something changes drastically

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeah I was watching that area. Seems slow to make much progress. But the radar is filling in again.
 
We've passed the 5" mark according to most surrounding stations in my immediate vicinity and the rain/wind has been pretty impressive most of the morning here in Charlotte. I'm thankful to still have power in seeing the power outages numbers begin to increase substantially across Mecklenburg county to almost 20,000.
 
4D1F2E76-C71D-4CEA-BB2C-AF281E4112C1.png I will rebuild!
I understand there are serious death and destruction from Flo, and death toll is up to 13, but a dud down here!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Good grief. Is there any rain at all on the south side of Florence ?
Click to expand...

Not surpringly as the flow on the bottom is relatively dry and down-sloping due to a W component to the winds (moisture already wrung out by the time the flow comes around) vs the upsloping and very moist E and S component to the winds on the top and to the right.
 
Last edited:
Rain Cold said:
Yeah I was watching that area. Seems slow to make much progress. But the radar is filling in again.
Click to expand...
Getting some legit heavy rain now and just got a special weather statement for cell with rotation. Sitting in church monitoring lol. Forgive me

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Yeah I just came back in from outside. There's no rain on the radar but somewhat surprisingly, it was still misting. Any kind of moisture available is being wrung out right now. Although I hate that it came with the flooding event going on in eastern North Carolina and southeast South Carolina, the brief reprieve from "Juber" at this point has been nice.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top