• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Just looking at IR and how ragged the CDO becomes at times makes me think Florence may get popped pretty good when it finally does have an ERC and/if dry air enters the core. That could be really good or really bad as in the cases we mentioned above.
 
I'm curious as to how people are preparing. I am equipped to deal with Fran, but anything beyond that I'm taking my family and heading NW Wednesday. I will not sit at my house and watch 100 mile an hour winds with flooding. I can't go for that, no can do. Hall & Oats.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Chris Justice just said the Euro was the major outlier... I mean I know it’s a little on the south side but I wouldn’t call it an “outlier”. Why are mets so afraid to bash our crappy American model? The GFS has been OTS doing loop de loops for 4 days now smh
Click to expand...

It has its faults in the winter as we all know.
 
Avalanche said:
TWC, WRAL (my local here) say Hatteras but I haven't a clue what they are basing that on. If you go by the NHC then Id say yes, southeastern NC (Wilmington). In any event, even the left part of the storm can still do some serious damage I know.
Click to expand...
Not sure what you have been watching. But I've been watching WRAL all afternoon and the news since it has started and Mike Maze or Greg Fishel have said nothing about it hitting Hatteras only thing they have show is what the NHC forecast tracks is.
 
ncskywarn said:
Not sure what you have been watching. But I've been watching WRAL all afternoon and the news since it has started and Mike Maze or Greg Fishel have said nothing about it hitting Hatteras only thing they have show is what the NHC forecast tracks is.
Click to expand...
Maze or Moss, whichever does the radio broadcast. Not sure how well versed they are in hurricane forecasts, but nonetheless that was their take. Wasn't Fishel however, rarely do I hear him on the radio.
 
Brent said:
View attachment 6126
Click to expand...

I don't get the back and forth with it having tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds farther inland. The last update had hurricane force winds inland, and now it is back to tropical storm force. Everything I have seen today has said Flo is getting stronger, and could be a cat 4 or 5 at landfall. That to me says the hurricane force winds should be farther inland once it comes in. Very confusing.
 
Omgd this gfs run lol heading SW might not make landfall until Sunday night or Monday this run in northern SC


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You can see how the euro and the fv3 keep the ridge stronger on its western and northwestern flank while the gfs erodes it and almost wants to rotate it SW behind florence allowing for the more north turn.

The euro and eps are head and shoulders above other models with their verification scores at 500mb which gives me pause and makes it difficult to believe in a more northward track.
37a41808503aedeb0a18713a2ba9e038.jpg
a5e63538bbbff0e788cb45542fd30eb6.jpg
098e2343aaa430f4113d179404f9bf11.jpg


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
Brick Tamland said:
I don't get the back and forth with it having tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds farther inland. The last update had hurricane force winds inland, and now it is back to tropical storm force. Everything I have seen today has said Flo is getting stronger, and could be a cat 4 or 5 at landfall. That to me says the hurricane force winds should be farther inland once it comes in. Very confusing.
Click to expand...

I agree. If Fran could give us 80 mile and hour wind/gusts here, then I imagine that we could expect hurricane force winds here, especially for your area
 
Brick Tamland said:
I don't get the back and forth with it having tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds farther inland. The last update had hurricane force winds inland, and now it is back to tropical storm force. Everything I have seen today has said Flo is getting stronger, and could be a cat 4 or 5 at landfall. That to me says the hurricane force winds should be farther inland once it comes in. Very confusing.
Click to expand...

Brick it could be 200 mph at landfall, what matters is angle it takes after landfall and if its moving,how fast or if its stalling. Those factors will determine how much punch the storm has when it passes your backyard. Slower the more time it has to wind down due to friction of land
 
Well SD, both of those scenarios would be bad, but that is a big difference. Preparing for wrap around winds vs right front quadrant is notable.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top