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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Brick Tamland said:
I don't get the back and forth with it having tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds farther inland. The last update had hurricane force winds inland, and now it is back to tropical storm force. Everything I have seen today has said Flo is getting stronger, and could be a cat 4 or 5 at landfall. That to me says the hurricane force winds should be farther inland once it comes in. Very confusing.
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In sure if there was a 60mph ts there we would get our share of 74mph plus gusts

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SD said:
In sure if there was a 60mph ts there we would get our share of 74mph plus gusts

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Yeah, I guess they are back to thinking it will downgrade faster again once it comes inland, because the timestamp on the map of 2 pm Friday is the same.
 
Kylo said:
GFS finally makes landfall in ILM, just 4 days after Euro does. Better late than never.
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Looks like the incoming trough should help move it along as well of course we know this run isn’t correct but if it were that would be great news
 
After 2 very comfortable days highs low 70s, warm front is on the move back north. Heavy thuderstorm inbound. Just what the soils need in preparation for Florence latter this week
 
Brick Tamland said:
I don't get the back and forth with it having tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds farther inland. The last update had hurricane force winds inland, and now it is back to tropical storm force. Everything I have seen today has said Flo is getting stronger, and could be a cat 4 or 5 at landfall. That to me says the hurricane force winds should be farther inland once it comes in. Very confusing.
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I'm sure it has a lot to do with the slow speed it's moving and being over land for 24 hours and only moving that short of a distance.
 
NCSNOW said:
After 2 very comfortable days highs low 70s, warm front is on the move back north. Heavy thuderstorm inbound. Just what the soils need in preparation for Florence latter this week
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Heavy storms 2 nights ago and another round incoming. Firewood will be abundant this winter.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Yeah, I guess they are back to thinking it will downgrade faster again once it comes inland, because the timestamp on the map of 2 pm Friday is the same.
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Euro was a pretty rapid spin down of sustained winds. Here is 1pm Friday with sustained winds and gusts
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If there is ever a time we need the gfs to be right , let it be the 18z run . Meanders offshore for a few days loops around , makes landfall and the incoming trough quickly picks it up and moves it to the north . That run would drastically reduce the flooding threat

One can hope


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It appears an EWRC may be beginning based on a recent microwave pass. It’s hard to tell since it was a partial pass... but the HMON yesterday predicted an EWRC starting this afternoon.

HMON EWRC prediction for 21z today, notice concentric eyewalls
41153E49-5F07-4627-AB04-D348842FA3A1.png
Now notice a recent microwave pass. It’s not complete but there seems to be a hint of concentric eyewalls.
9EB787C7-BCEF-4639-8CB2-C9B891E26AAA.png
 
snowlover91 said:
It appears an EWRC may be beginning based on a recent microwave pass. It’s hard to tell since it was a partial pass... but the HMON yesterday predicted an EWRC starting this afternoon.

HMON EWRC prediction for 21z today, notice concentric eyewalls
View attachment 6132
Now notice a recent microwave pass. It’s not complete but there seems to be a hint of concentric eyewalls.
View attachment 6131
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From the microwave imagery, it looks like it's going to be awhile before the ERC actually happens if that is the case. It's only got about 30% of an outer eyewall if you can even call it that seeing it's still relatively connected and may just be an energy feed. As for the HMON, it's no longer calling for one as of 18Z, and it's calling for a cat 5 by tonight or tomorrow morning now too.

On another note, the next plane is arriving in the storm now for low level recon.
 
Not saying it's impossible. But honestly the way the GFS has been looping Florence around it almost leads me to believe it may ultimately trend the direction of the Euro. Just in a different way because I don't think the ridge would allow it to get that far North just sit there then push it back Southwest in the long run. Instead of pushing it more West to begin with like the Euro shows
 
Brick Tamland said:
I don't get the back and forth with it having tropical storm force winds or hurricane force winds farther inland. The last update had hurricane force winds inland, and now it is back to tropical storm force. Everything I have seen today has said Flo is getting stronger, and could be a cat 4 or 5 at landfall. That to me says the hurricane force winds should be farther inland once it comes in. Very confusing.
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All depends how long it takes for the storm to get to a particular location after landfall. Lets say Flo hit with 150mph sustained winds and MyBackYard is in the path 180 miles inland... if Flo was moving at 15mph I would expect Flo to take 12 hours to reach me and deliver 75mph sustained...but if Flo was moving at a slower speed of 10mph I would expect Flo to reach me in 18 hours and deliver 55mph sustained. Either way power is probably going off.
 
cyclogent said:
All depends how long it takes for the storm to get to a particular location after landfall. Lets say Flo hit with 150mph sustained winds and MyBackYard is in the path 180 miles inland... if Flo was moving at 15mph I would expect Flo to take 12 hours to reach me and deliver 75mph sustained...but if Flo was moving at a slower speed of 10mph I would expect Flo to reach me in 18 hours and deliver 55mph sustained. Either way power is probably going off.
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And the other factor, is longer time frame equals higher precip amounts, so saturated ground with trees and 55 may have same overall result as 75 with firmer soils..
 
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