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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
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Avalanche
Member
Avalanche
Member
Brick, you know better than this. Comment does not correlate with anything I stated. 100 miles in 24 hours = 200 miles in 48, which equates to NE NC Southeast VA, ie, Norfolk. Yesterday to today's mean went from NC/SC border to Morehead, that was with in 24 hours. If that same trajectory, please read that, trajectory were to stay the course for another 48 then a lot of North Carolinians would be happy and spared.
I still feel like the northward shifts along the NC coast are not finished . Nothing scientific just feel as though the ridge is gonna verify a little weaker
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Avalanche
Member
Thank you. We need that.
To my untrained eye, the Euro ensembles have majority of members in SC. Between the border and Savannah!? Very tight cluster ther
It may very well, but it's been anomalously strong late this summer. I honestly could see it going either way.
Avalanche
Member
This goes to show that trends are nice and hopeful, but being prepared trumps everything. Was hopeful to see a few OTS members today, but if Savannah is still in play (model wise at least), then there is not much comfort in any forecast track given.
MichaelAndrews
Member
Yep, and I'm willing to guess that's what SC is basing on their recent decision to mandatory evacuate the entire coast. Tomorrow they are opening up both sides of I-26 to bring that lower coast up by us
Sorry for the banter but I can’t even with this board commentary right now. Prepare for the worst but hope for the best. I understand that, but it doesn’t change anything. We can’t wishcast this thing out of our state(s)
FamouslyHot
Member
Thank you. I think posts about “gut feelings” that have nothing to back them up should not be allowed.
As someone who is new to this hobby, I understand wanting to contribute to the conversation but you will learn so much more if you allow the people who know what they are saying to talk and not flood the forum with your opinions.
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keep in mind the hurricane models (like the HMON) are run off the gfs grid, so if it is indeed out to lunch hen the hurricane models will be as well. may be why we see such a large discrepancy between the eps spread and the others.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Sadly it's true. The EPS was only a signal saying S NC and maybe all SC coastal areas need to be ready and prepared for a category 4 or 3 hit. I see no trend northward and if anything I think it's going to be dead on the NC/SC border or just south of it.
Avalanche
Member
I would rather listen to the board members here discuss this regardless of their level of knowledge than say a jim cantore or greg fishel. No knock at them though.
Avalanche
Member
Well if this thing is a cat 3 or better we all should have some measure of preparation.
Here is another image of today's eps and yes while there are many possibilities there are more hits further north than last night's eps. As Allan tweeted a short while ago the mean was actually a hair North it was minor and not really enough to be considered a trend. Again NHC track is your best bet.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
In short: There are more members south of N.C. than in or north of N.C. Euro sticking to its guns.
Avalanche
Member
the nhc has been pretty firm with their path, and its one that doesnt look good for any board member from far east metwanna to bigfrosty out west. A lot of todays forecast tracks at least put me and the western triangle on the left quadrant of the storm, which is the more preferable, but the nhc path is dire for a lot on here.Here is another image of today's eps and yes while there are many possibilities there are more hits further north than last night's eps. As Allan tweeted a short while ago the mean was actually a hair North it was minor and not really enough to be considered a trend. Again NHC track is your best bet.
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Florence will likely go through at least one ERC prior to landfall. It's not out of the realm of possibility that she never gets back to Cat 4 status. A well-timed ERC would be very beneficial for coastal and inland areas. However, she will be slowing as she approaches the Gulf Stream, so that could act provide a burst of energy prior to landfall. Orientation and strength of the ridge is still up for debate, which will impact how much she slows, when and if she stalls, and the degree of the westward component of motion she maintains as she comes ashore. My experience tells me that the GFS solution is unlikely. The ridging late this season has been anomalously strong, so some weight has to be given to that. The European model is the best, no doubt, but it is also the southernmost model at this time. Given all of that, my expectation is for a landfall north of the NC/SC line. I also think we could continue to see northward adjustments to the track over the next 3-4 days, maybe Cape Lookout to Cape Hatteras when all is said and done. I've seen that happen a lot in the past. At any rate, it's a very interesting and potentially dire situation to watch unfold, fraught with variables, the precarious alignment of which, could make the difference between a land-falling hurricane and a catastrophic, once-in-a-lifetime event.