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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Icon not really seeing the current axis of moderate to heavy rain either. Weird.
 
They showed “ future radar” on TWC just now, the problem is the S side of the remnants, are basically void of precip as it basically goes from CAE to GSP! It’s like a naked swirl on the S /SW side, which we are in the whole time! That’s how you suck at rain, and pick up .5-1” from a tropical system!! That’s how we roll!
 
Tarheel1 said:
They showed “ future radar” on TWC just now, the problem is the S side of the remnants, are basically void of precip as it basically goes from CAE to GSP! It’s like a naked swirl on the S /SW side, which we are in the whole time! That’s how you suck at rain, and pick up .5-1” from a tropical system!! That’s how we roll!
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Try living in ATL & watching this when you haven’t gotten a drop of rain in 12 d ays


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NWSGSP must be using an in house model to come up with these totals! This is their afternoon discussion, updated at 10:25 tonight!? It even contradicts the rainfall map they issued at 4:10 pm! So what’s it gonna be, .5 or 7.55??
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Try living in ATL & watching this when you haven’t gotten a drop of rain in 12 d ays


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I feel ya! I had a good storm about 3 days ago, got about 1.5”, that was my first rain since August 15th!
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Try living in ATL & watching this when you haven’t gotten a drop of rain in 12 d ays


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been plenty rainy here in Chattanooga.. I find it hard to believe you're in a drought in the ATL area. So if I go look up ATL area rainfall totals for Sept I'm going to see 0.00 for the past 12 days? lol
 
whamby said:
been plenty rainy here in Chattanooga.. I find it hard to believe you're in a drought in the ATL area. So if I go look up ATL area rainfall totals for Sept I'm going to see 0.00 for the past 12 days? lol
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Not really. There have been no organized systems in awhile and July , August, September, usually rely on pop up storms and you may get 3” from a storm and someone 2 miles away , is sunny and dry
 
we'll get 'em eventually.. I doubt this is going to be like Fall 2016, with the wildfires.. what I don't want, is any tropical system giving me 20 inches of rain in 3 days. Who in their right mind would want to get in on that action?
 
It was fairly dry until the last 7 days here actually as well...after really raking in rain early last month we had a real dry spell for a while but it seems to have broken.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Try living in ATL & watching this when you haven’t gotten a drop of rain in 12 d ays


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Well this is the dry season in Atlanta. September through November can be bone dry unless you are lucky enough to get some tropical moisture. And of course you should never count on tropical moisture from a tropical system that strikes the east coast. 99% of the time if Atlanta gets rain from a tropical system it will be coming from the Gulf.
 
E03B0110-0D38-467E-8333-9FD155121AF3.png The eye is currently running SSW , riding the SC coast from MYR towards CHS, it’s crazy to watch!
 
This thread has been mighty quiet. If it were January and flurrying outside there would have been 50 posts in the past hour. I can’t wait to get my dry bands with 40mph gust tomorrow. Should be one for the record books
 
it's like a live pig in a meat grinder... what's the biggest rain total so far?
 
Firehose pointed directly at Wake. Got somewhere between 5-6” and climbing. Under all kinds of flood warnings.
 
Maybe it’s finally starting to pivot west and south now?
 
Rain Cold said:
Maybe it’s finally starting to pivot west and south now?
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HRRR has Flo gaining latitude through the afternoon so that super band may push north a little. Looks like we will be right on the edge. Going to be out and about today, be nice to get a lull in precip.

hrrr.sfcwind_mslp.us_ma.2018091510-loop.gif
 
Not doing a thing here. Not even raining. Hope I am far enough north to miss the heavy stuff today.
 
Rain Cold said:
The only qpf model that looks remotely right to me is the RGEM.
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The RGEM and it’s higher resolution counterpart the HRDPS have done exceptionally well with the banding and amounts so far. If they’re remotely close then it’s going to get worse.
Here’s what the 06z HRDPS shows for the next 48 hours.
1DA2A55B-2A40-4B5D-838E-60AF216AB0F0.png
Here’s the 06z RGEM
3A0CBD33-2EDA-47F8-9396-CC49755BE653.png
 
Another aspect of this slow motion natural disaster to consider is overflow river flooding. Surface runoff from rains in the higher elevations will cause a number of rivers in the Carolinas to crest to record heights during the coming week, resulting in even more catastrophic flooding.
Screenshot_2018-09-15_at_7.45.04_AM.png
 
snowlover91 said:
The RGEM and it’s higher resolution counterpart the HRDPS have done exceptionally well with the banding and amounts so far. If they’re remotely close then it’s going to get worse.
Here’s what the 06z HRDPS shows for the next 48 hours.
View attachment 6417
Here’s the 06z RGEM
View attachment 6418
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I’m glad you mentioned the HRSPS. As silly as it sounds, I’ve been watching that model for the last few days, and it seems to have done quite well. I meant to say something about it the other day, but I forgot. I’ve been impressed with it with this storm.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Try living in ATL & watching this when you haven’t gotten a drop of rain in 12 d ays


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Totally new here but the reason I watch these storms is because my daughter used to live in Florida and now lives in Atlanta. Cannot tell you how glad I am to hear she is not in the midst of a hurricane! Last year they decided to "ride out" Irma. Now she gets to sit and worry about us! And sitting here just below Charlotte so far we have wind and about .50" of rain. Power flickered off last night but came back on.
 
Rain Cold said:
I’m glad you mentioned the HRSPS. As silly as it sounds, I’ve been watching that model for the last few days, and it seems to have done quite well. I meant to say something about it the other day, but I forgot. I’ve been impressed with it with this storm.
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Yeah the HRSPS has been very good and right now it’s showing a brief lull before the fire hose comes back. I wish it showed the rest of the country.


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How likely is it that the upper winds will work down to the surface as the Euro is showing? I didn't find any other models that were showing 50-70 mph winds at the surface in the western half of NC.
TW
 
It does well in winter quite often as well. If correct as BHS mentioned, after a lull you guys will be under the gun again, heck even gets decent amounts up here. Wish we could see how it's handling Florence's movement. Is it turning north sooner or just showing a much more expansive rain shield
Rain Cold said:
I’m glad you mentioned the HRSPS. As silly as it sounds, I’ve been watching that model for the last few days, and it seems to have done quite well. I meant to say something about it the other day, but I forgot. I’ve been impressed with it with this storm.
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metwannabe said:
It does well in winter quite often as well. If correct as BHS mentioned, after a lull you guys will be under the gun again, heck even gets decent amounts up here. Wish we could see how it's handling Florence's movement. Is it turning north sooner or just showing a much more expansive rain shield

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Yeah, they need a SE view on that thing!
 
metwannabe said:
It does well in winter quite often as well. If correct as BHS mentioned, after a lull you guys will be under the gun again, heck even gets decent amounts up here. Wish we could see how it's handling Florence's movement. Is it turning north sooner or just showing a much more expansive rain shield

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I’m thinking it’s just an expanding rain shield as the flow becomes more from the south.


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