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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Nomanslandva said:
For me still way upstream, it looks like models are initializing things too far SW. Fv3 18Z at 00z looked a good bit farther south than reality. Even 23z HRRR seems to be promising SW movement that does not seem to be there yet. I am just concerned that reality may be a little north now and that could mean much more rain pregame and on Sunday-Monday for us up here. I know people have it way worse than what is forecast here, but flooding in the mountains adds another dimension.

Hope all on the board are safe!!!
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You have reason to be concerned no doubt... the HRRR consistently this evening is too far south, the 23z literally shows no rain in that area around Central NC that is currently getting pummeled.
 
Rain Cold said:
I think I have close to 3”. I am ashamed to say that I don’t have a weather station. That is so bad. I need to get one. How have you been, buddy?
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Been doing well thanks for asking!! Hope you and your family is doing well! Stay safe down there........... I look forward to winter and them late night tracking, lol........ NWS says we may see big time flooding here in the foothills 6-10 inches of rain?
 
Looking to get details of certain highways/roads? Anyone have a good resource for this? Trying to get a friends friend back to Jacksonville.


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Rain Cold said:
I think I have close to 3”. I am ashamed to say that I don’t have a weather station. That is so bad. I need to get one. How have you been, buddy?
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You should be! Not even a 2$ plastic rain gauge?? Come on man!! I’ve had 0.0000 , don’t need a gauge for that!
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Been doing well thanks for asking!! Hope you and your family is doing well! Stay safe down there........... I look forward to winter and them late night tracking, lol........ NWS says we may see big time flooding here in the foothills 6-10 inches of rain?
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Thanks man. Going well now that the power is back. I don’t know if y’all will get that much, but you should do ok. Either way, the good thing is we will keep the soil moisture variable favorable for winter!
 
SD said:
Hrrr says supercells for everyone tomorrow
6006a6d35cf0a6b709a67a6df9759b0e.jpg


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That looks worse than today for tornado chances. Flo is in no hurry to leave.
 
Tarheel1 said:
You should be! Not even a 2$ plastic rain gauge?? Come on man!! I’ve had 0.0000 , don’t need a gauge for that!
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My MIL bought me an outdoor thermometer. But it broke. :(
 
DA09A87C-F2EA-462D-A58C-D5467E8C5868.png Some of WxSouths thoughts!
 
thekidcurtis said:
Looking to get details of certain highways/roads? Anyone have a good resource for this? Trying to get a friends friend back to Jacksonville.


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NCDOT link below, go to county of choice and then click incidents.... updated regularly.

https://tims.ncdot.gov/tims/
 
Kylo said:
Center of circulation is essentially over MYR, RGEM has it going as far south as Georgetown and then heading NW from there.
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HRRR has it coming even further. Part of the center does look like offshore but essentially drifting SW sitting over MYR
 
Tornado Warning
Tornado Warning
NCC061-107-150130-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0015.180915T0109Z-180915T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
909 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

The National Weather Service in Newport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Lenoir County in eastern North Carolina...
Northeastern Duplin County in eastern North Carolina...

* Until 930 PM EDT.
 
metwannabe said:
Tornado Warning
Tornado Warning
NCC061-107-150130-
/O.NEW.KMHX.TO.W.0015.180915T0109Z-180915T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
909 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2018

The National Weather Service in Newport has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Southwestern Lenoir County in eastern North Carolina...
Northeastern Duplin County in eastern North Carolina...

* Until 930 PM EDT.
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That whole firehose band is nothing but trouble

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SD said:
That whole firehose band is nothing but trouble

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Pointed right at you too man. I was awakened at 3:30 am this morning by a tor warning, if HRRR is right might happen again in the morning

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Stormsfury said:
HRRR has it coming even further. Part of the center does look like offshore but essentially drifting SW sitting over MYR
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Now that I look at it some more, maybe I am looking at the wrong center of circulation. Is it the white one or the purple one? At first I though it was the purple one. Curious to see what NHC identifies at 11pm. If it's the white one, then it's further north and moving more west. I think I have been staring at the radar to much today!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KMHX/latestloop_long.gif

Screen Shot 2018-09-14 at 9.43.06 PM.png
 
Currently raining the hardest it’s rained all day. Been pouring for a while now. Looks like we’re socked in for a while.
 
Rain Cold said:
3k NAM goes like 10 miles west in 13 hours.
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Yep and scary part for you is the 3k NAM while accurate with the storm center continues to show that fire hose too far south. you and Shane going to have some incredible totals when all is said and done
 
Kylo said:
Now that I look at it some more, maybe I am looking at the wrong center of circulation. Is it the white one or the purple one? At first I though it was the purple one. Curious to see what NHC identifies at 11pm. If it's the white one, then it's further north and moving more west. I think I have been staring at the radar to much today!

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/KMHX/latestloop_long.gif

View attachment 6410
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I've been looking at vis/ir night channel satellite on TT. Really looks like its drifted SW. I know the center is west of MYR as they have SW winds now. Still very close enough to the shore that she's not weakening overly fast.
 
metwannabe said:
Yep and scary part for you is the 3k NAM while accurate with the storm center continues to show that fire hose too far south. you and Shane going to have some incredible totals when all is said and done
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Looks like just short of an additional foot here on the 12 km

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