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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

metwannabe said:
I know your frustrated and also being somewhat sarcastic, but give me drought over 100 mph gust and 15 inches of rain any day .... if you're spared, count your blessings.

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I have a sister in Roxboro and one in Apex! They are not leaving! I’m praying for them!
 
Target zone is beginning to narrow we probably have enough information now to hone in on somewhere between Morehead City and Charleston, with Wilmington and Myrtle Beach obviously in the thick of things.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Target zone is beginning to narrow we probably have enough information now to hone in on somewhere between Morehead City and Charleston, with Wilmington and Myrtle Beach obviously in the thick of things.
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Is Florence currently on track with the NWS prediction or south? I've heard that the stronger it gets, it might move as much in latitude, could this cause a lot of members going to SC? Makes me wonder what a SC landfull will do to impacts in the Triangle.
 
Again, you know i wasnt making a forecast, but the trends have shifted north and east, even a few ots members today. If it keeps on that same trajectory in the next 48, then yeah, triangle would be spared and landfall would occur around norfolk. Simple math tells you that if it goes from myrtle to morehead in less than 24 hours, that same trajectory would extrapolate much farther north and east in 48 hours. Not trying to be sarcastic, i enjoy every member and poster here. When i stated the northward trend the replies i got were that there was no northern trend. Moments later posts are made that there was in fact a northern trend. Im in no way forecasting or suggesting anyone not be prepared or let the guard down, but you have to be pleased at the fact that landfall has been trending northward today. The triangle does not need the track of fayetteville through southern triad, which was being depicted yesterday. Now we have a better chance of the right front quadrant at least passing us to the north. As for me and my house, we support this trend.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Target zone is beginning to narrow we probably have enough information now to hone in on somewhere between Morehead City and Charleston, with Wilmington and Myrtle Beach obviously in the thick of things.
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Agree. Has anyone noticed or payed attn to the trends on the stall phase, forward motion speed. So busy looking at landfall points, trends. Still looks to me like its gonna slam on brakes somewhere at some point. Does it wait and start slowing down 12 hours after landfall, before landfall etc.
 
Given I'm in Dillon,SC is there much of a difference in what I'd see if Florence made landfall in Myrtle Beach or Wilmington? I'd assume it's just a little more wind with a Myrtle Beach landfall correct?
 
Almost immediately after landfall and puts on the brakes or slows tremendously. Would be great if that could occur before landfall
NCSNOW said:
Agree. Has anyone noticed or payed attn to the trends on the stall phase, forward motion speed. So busy looking at landfall points, trends. Still looks to me like its gonna slam on brakes somewhere at some point. Does it wait and start slowing down 12 hours after landfall, before landfall etc.
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One thing to note, regardless of hour to hour forecast, the national hc has stayed the course for their trajectory.
 
TVCN has shifted north a touch after the 12z data, expect the NHC to slightly adjust their track N at 5pm as they usually follow this pretty closely.
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SC_Wildcat said:
Given I'm in Dillon,SC is there much of a difference in what I'd see if Florence made landfall in Myrtle Beach or Wilmington? I'd assume it's just a little more wind with a Myrtle Beach landfall correct?
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Well the constant with current modeling anybody in the main path are gonna be getting a ton of flooding potential and power outages but in terms of Wind speed etc it's gonna vary depending on main varibles such as what quadrant (NE/E/SE are stronger then Western) of the storm your on as it passes and how far inland
 
I would say that I will update my map when I get home. Definitely a little further east on the landfall point
 
Avalanche said:
Again, you know i wasnt making a forecast, but the trends have shifted north and east, even a few ots members today. If it keeps on that same trajectory in the next 48, then yeah, triangle would be spared and landfall would occur around norfolk. Simple math tells you that if it goes from myrtle to morehead in less than 24 hours, that same trajectory would extrapolate much farther north and east in 48 hours. Not trying to be sarcastic, i enjoy every member and poster here. When i stated the northward trend the replies i got were that there was no northern trend. Moments later posts are made that there was in fact a northern trend. Im in no way forecasting or suggesting anyone not be prepared or let the guard down, but you have to be pleased at the fact that landfall has been trending northward today. The triangle does not need the track of fayetteville through southern triad, which was being depicted yesterday. Now we have a better chance of the right front quadrant at least passing us to the north. As for me and my house, we support this trend.
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Most of the latest model runs had Flo making landfall between Wilmington and Morehead City. Nothing has trended so far north to think it could make landfall at Norfolk.
 
metwannabe said:
Still a long ways to go, but it does appear to have shifted north some... l

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That is a pretty good spread. But the tightest clusters appear to be between the SC/NC border and Morehead City. Right now that looks like the are to bet on for landfall. Of course, where and what direction she goes after hitting land has a big implication on how bad things will be inland.
 
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