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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

Wilmington Police confirm that a mother and her infant died when a tree fell on a home on Mercer Ave. Father in hospital with injuries.
 
Finally have some legitimate rain. Probably will stop again in 2 minutes.
 
Looks CJ is calling for Winds of 30 MPH with Gust of 50 for about 24 hours in GSP. Looks like more for Charlotte and points north. Hugging the Euro now.
 
Webberweather53 said:
UKMET is pretty much in line with what the WPC produced, hard to see exactly where the gradients line up on weathermodels.
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Really sharp gradient. Monroe, NC to Rutherfordton, NC on 74 6-10 inches including Charlotte. On a line from Greenville SC to Columbia 2-4 inches but increasing greatly just NW of that line. NC foothills 8-12 inches.
 
SD said:
I wish I had looked at my weather station and saw it took 9volt instead of AA for the battery backup. Sigh

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I’m creeping up on 2”, according to Doppler estimates. I’ve had a few gust near 50, according to Rain Cold estimates!
 
Gonna be something if it just keeps on headed W into GA and goes all the way across SC. Then those 6-10" would be right.

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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
My house sits on top of a hill with some trees in the back but I’m a little exposed to the west which is usually where my strongest thunderstorm winds come from. Curious to see how this plays out with winds from the northeast
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You’ll be ok! The trees have been tested before, with a good wedge, you’ll get an occasional gust to 20mph, that the worst I’d expect for us this weekend!
 
No snow for you said:
Looks CJ is calling for Winds of 30 MPH with Gust of 50 for about 24 hours in GSP. Looks like more for Charlotte and points north. Hugging the Euro now.
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No way that happens! No way we sustain at 30 mph for 2 hours, much less 24
 
FWIW, the 18z 3k NAM is quite a bit farther north with the track than the 12z.

BTW, I love weather. I don’t love loss of life and devastation, but I love tracking things like this and experiencing the wind and rain.
 
Rain Cold said:
FWIW, the 18z 3k NAM is quite a bit farther north with the track than the 12z.

BTW, I love weather. I don’t love loss of life and devastation, but I love tracking things like this and experiencing the wind and rain.
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Was just looking at that. The 12km NAM was too.

nam.refcmp_ptype.us_ma.trend.gif
 
Rain Cold said:
FWIW, the 18z 3k NAM is quite a bit farther north with the track than the 12z.

BTW, I love weather. I don’t love loss of life and devastation, but I love tracking things like this and experiencing the wind and rain.
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You’ve pretty much nailed the track so far


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Rain Cold said:
FWIW, the 18z 3k NAM is quite a bit farther north with the track than the 12z.

BTW, I love weather. I don’t love loss of life and devastation, but I love tracking things like this and experiencing the wind and rain.
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It’s now casting time! Throw models out the window, except the HRRR!
 
Rain Cold said:
FWIW, the 18z 3k NAM is quite a bit farther north with the track than the 12z.

BTW, I love weather. I don’t love loss of life and devastation, but I love tracking things like this and experiencing the wind and rain.
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If these maps are accurate then no wonder and another shift northward would not surprise me...
wg8dlm4.GIF
 
pcbjr said:
Do not know if they are "accurate" but it's one of the 2 "maps" this old Curmudgeon has used time and again ... including this time, and the accuracy rate for one old Curmudgeon is exceedingly high ... FWIW
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I would agree, I've used it many times before also..... I'm no expert but sure looks like a trough dipping down between the decaying Atlantic ridge and the ridge to Flo's west, one would think this would pull it north. But I'm just a wannabe...
 
093826CB-2993-4E62-8797-F2AA68211551.png Ouch! Cut totals in half on the afternoon update!:(
 
Kylo said:
Looks like the 3km essentially tracks Flo due west from here.
View attachment 6406
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Most likely the track it will take but I was just throwing out some food for thought... side note I finally got in on some of those decent bands up here
 
Thing has slowed to 3mph! OUCH Not good for those being Affected!

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Storm5 said:
You’ve pretty much nailed the track so far


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Thanks. The Euro track seemed highly unlikely to me. Dramatic ridging seems to usually turns out to be a bit less than forecast. Not impossible, but just less likely, IMO.
 
metwannabe said:
Most likely the track it will take but I was just throwing out some food for thought... side note I finally got in on some of those decent bands up here
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Definitely, the 3km doesn't think it's going south. Flo hasn't moved, I would think the slower the further north it will stay or potentially go as it rounds the corner in SC.
 
Kylo said:
Definitely, the 3km doesn't think it's going south. Flo hasn't moved, I would think the slower the further north it will stay or potentially go as it rounds the corner in SC.
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New NHC track doesn’t really having going much farther south than its current location. Going W at 3.
 
Rain Cold said:
New NHC track doesn’t really having going much farther south than its current location. Going W at 3.
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Yippeeee! Being on the Southwest side of the storm, will be devastating!
 
Things are pretty bad in Jacksonville. I have some family there and they have 5 kids. They didn’t stock up on enough food or water so only have enough to last 2 days at best. Power is out and they are under a boil water advisory which they can’t do since they have no power. They can’t leave their house due to power lines and trees blocking both ends of the road. The power company said they won’t be out there for another 1-2 days at the earliest due to all the rain, flooding and trees down everywhere plus the winds. Very bad situation and I’m hoping things improve soon. This is the ugly side of hurricanes that people don’t think about and have no idea what it’s like until they or family members go through it.
 
Tornado warning just S of Roxboro!!!!
 
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