Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

[Metwannabe]

Cannot get much more of a consensus than that.

To summarize the 12z runs...
GFS - East shift, stalls off the coast then shoved west and inland.
FV3 - Nearly the same track with landfall between ILM and MHX.
HWRF - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
Euro - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
HMON - Slight west shift, landfall near MHX
ICON - Shifts west to MHX stall and then drifts north to VA
UK - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX
JMA - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX

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[thekidcurtis]

To summarize the 12z runs...
GFS - East shift, stalls off the coast then shoved west and inland.
FV3 - Nearly the same track with landfall between ILM and MHX.
HWRF - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
Euro - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
HMON - Slight west shift, landfall near MHX
ICON - Shifts west to MHX stall and then drifts north to VA
UK - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX
JMA - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX

These are great, thanks for doing them for a number of runs now!


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[BHS1975]

Wow... devastating

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I think prayer is in order.


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[WeatherLC]

Yep Fayetteville is spot on. Wish me luck

 

[SD]

Geez

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[accu35]

Just wanted to say, I hope everyone says a prayer for one another as this is a life threatening situation . Please by all means, take care of your family, freinds, and yourself before and after this storm hit, don't let time go by and don't let this weather forum hold you back from you getting ready for this catastrophic hurricane. God Bless everyone.

 

[SC_Wildcat]

I hate to be bothersome, but as a new user can someone give a quick guide to the locations that are being abbreviated? I can figure MYR is Myrtle Beach but not sure on others.

 

[ncskywarn]

South Carolina's Governor ordering evacuation of entire SC coast.

https://www.postandcourier.com/news...cle_ecae59d2-b507-11e8-b430-c30c881683a8.html

 

[TheBatman]

Geez

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That’s is just unreal!!!! Hope it doesn’t happen.

 

[Brick Tamland]

To summarize the 12z runs...
GFS - East shift, stalls off the coast then shoved west and inland.
FV3 - Nearly the same track with landfall between ILM and MHX.
HWRF - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
Euro - Shifts north, landfall near ILM
HMON - Slight west shift, landfall near MHX
ICON - Shifts west to MHX stall and then drifts north to VA
UK - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX
JMA - Shifts west with landfall between ILM and MHX

Looks like Wilmington to Morehead City is a strong consensus.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

So maybe the south shift is done. Maybe just Maybe no South Carolina landfall.

 

[snowlover91]

I hate to be bothersome, but as a new user can someone give a quick guide to the locations that are being abbreviated? I can figure MYR is Myrtle Beach but not sure on others.

ILM is for Wilmington, NC and MHX is Morehead City. Right now the consensus is pretty close to the NHC track and I would go with their forecast as they have been nailing it thus far and the consensus is pretty close to their track with potential landfall near ILM to MHX area. There is still time for that to change but all the reliable guidance is targeting this area right now.

 

[Metwannabe]

I was just going to post that under realistic conditions I could not paint a much worse scenario for the Triangle than what the 12z Euro just predicted.

I've got a sickening feeling in my gut..... praying for a last minute OTS miracle

 

[SC_Wildcat]

So maybe the south shift is done. Maybe just Maybe no South Carolina landfall.

Who knows at this point as Florence seemingly has a mind of its own.

 

[snowlover91]

What a monster.. you can even see the mesovortices in the eyewall.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Geez

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Good grief look at that buzzsaw

 

[snowlover91]

Everyone checkout this loop if you can... it's simply incredible to look at the detail of the eye, stadium effect, mesovortices, etc.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...mber_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

 

[malak05]

Everyone checkout this loop if you can... it's simply incredible to look at the detail of the eye, stadium effect, mesovortices, etc.
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...mber_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

That's pretty awesome visuals

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This is not looking good for many here on SouthernWX but should make for some epic board commentary

 

[Metwannabe]

Euro has central NC up to northern NC in 45+ wind gust for over 24 hours.... with some gust over hurricane force, this duration of wind with rain will be massive number of trees down, power outages, etc. Dang!