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Tropical Major Hurricane Delta

Clayton said:
What the heck is going on with this storm?! How did we go from 4 mile eye to 20 miles wide?!
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Probably similar to an ERC the tiny eye collapsed basically which is why it weakened so much the winds will spread out now most likely even if it doesn't necessarily bomb(although that can't be ruled out at all)
 
Looks like that weird sloppy look on IR has definitely gotten better and think by the later morning she’ll be really trying to throw that eye out for all to see .. let’s see how the next few hours treat her
 
Hopefully the recon that just took off can get a center fix before landfall....should make it maybe a hr to go till the center is over land...
 
Well, I was wrong, I actually thought the models would swing east with time...doesn't appear that way this time. Looks like the bulk of the weather will be from bama west.
 
deltadog03 said:
Well, I was wrong, I actually thought the models would swing east with time...doesn't appear that way this time. Looks like the bulk of the weather will be from bama west.
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Yeah I had my doubts yesterday we would see the east shift but the models haven't even moved more than 50 miles for the last 36 to 48 hours which is very strong consistency. With Laura they had the forecast point within a few miles for days. We may see a repeat of that accuracy here.
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah I had my doubts yesterday we would see the east shift but the models haven't even moved more than 50 miles for the last 36 to 48 hours which is very strong consistency. With Laura they had the forecast point within a few miles for days. We may see a repeat of that accuracy here.
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Yeah there isn't a lot here to change the landfall point, the bigger adjustments would be farther inland
 
I know it is the NAM (3K) but look at the pressure:oops: LF is east of other models too.

Edit: looked at prior runs and it has been stupid low as far back as I can go. disregard!
 
Looks like Delta has been moving more NW of the models
 
Gonna make a difference if the hurricane gets pulled up earlier than what's modeled. That's when you will know what part of Louisiana its gonna hit. I'm betting east Louisiana
 
TWC is really touting weakening as it approaches land fall! I sure hope they are right! Saying the ‘ cooler’ waters near shore, will cause it to weaken
 
We already saw it go from a cat 1 to a 4 in less than 24 hours. Wouldn't be surprised to see it blow up to at least a cat 3 again at landfall.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with
higher gusts. Re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves
over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and
Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again. Some weakening is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on
Friday.

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Brent said:
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with
higher gusts. Re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves
over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and
Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again. Some weakening is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on
Friday.

View attachment 49905
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Is it seriously gonna strengthening to a cat 3 again moving at that pace?
 
MichaelJ said:
I think it has already previously peaked and will not regain the cat4 status
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I wouldn’t be so sure I think other factors were at play before that ended up to its weakening but I believe we could get a more clear eye to pop overnight and if that’s the case it’s off to the races for at least the next 12 hours or so .. cat 4 could be tough but never underestimate the gulf combination with tropical systems
 
36 mile wide eye!!

URNT12 KNHC 080001
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL262020
A. 07/23:45:00Z
B. 22.32 deg N 090.15 deg W
C. 700 mb 2874 m
D. 974 mb
E. 075 deg 16 kt
F. OPEN NE
G. C36
H. 69 kt
I. 024 deg 14 nm 23:41:00Z
J. 105 deg 94 kt
K. 024 deg 14 nm 23:41:00Z
L. 71 kt
M. 222 deg 13 nm 23:49:00Z
N. 327 deg 71 kt
O. 223 deg 17 nm 23:50:00Z
P. 12 C / 3044 m
Q. 18 C / 3056 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 0.75 nm
U. AF309 1126A DELTA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 94 KT 024 / 14 NM 23:41:00Z
;
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I wouldn’t be so sure I think other factors were at play before that ended up to its weakening but I believe we could get a more clear eye to pop overnight and if that’s the case it’s off to the races for at least the next 12 hours or so .. cat 4 could be tough but never underestimate the gulf combination with tropical systems
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Whether it gets back to cat4 or not, you can already tell it has a bigger circulation and wider wind field than it did before going over land. This is going to lead to a larger area of coastal effects
 
Will this intensify fast again? I think we're starting to already see it intensify again. Its old eye was small and unstable. New one is larger and more stable probably in addition to having a true wind field. Pressure is dropping again so it's going to intensify for sure. I wouldn't rule out another burst of RI if the eye shrinks and pressure drops more.
 
As big as this storm gonna be any wobble to the east will effect even more for Bama
 
Delta suppose to slow a bit while at the north turn in the far western gulf but can it actually turn sooner? I understand its hitting Louisiana but seems to slow a bit and maybe feeling the effects of the trough out west? Maybe a early turn?
 
accu35 said:
Delta suppose to slow a bit while at the north turn in the far western gulf but can it actually turn sooner? I understand its hitting Louisiana but seems to slow a bit and maybe feeling the effects of the trough out west? Maybe a early turn?
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Models are pretty much unanimous on a track toward western LA and then moving NNE from there for a good 200 miles or so. Rarely does such model agreement occur.

Based on analogs and what the storm is now doing, I'm quite concerned that there will be a cat 3 H hit on LA despite the cooler shelf waters.
 
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