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Tropical Major Hurricane Delta

The eye looks much more symmetrical on visible satellite now. Looks to be moving pretty much NNW now too.
 
She’s cranking THATS for sure last few frames have really blown up some cold cloud tops (which I think has been the theme with this storm that is very intriguing to me that it’s been able to sustain such cloud tops through its whole cycle) as I believed before when she pops that eye it’s off to the races and I believe she is easily a CAT 3 right now and will make a run for CAT 4 ... don’t believe there will be enough time in the right conditions for anything around CAT 5 but a formidable storm in the making
 
Will Rossman said:
Visible imagery loops looks like Delta starting to make the turn to the north now. We'll see if it continues the trend in the next few hours.
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Yup I notice that. If that's so then we can see a trend east a little.
 
One think I would say is that we’re looking at a mid grade category 3 storm .. to get this to break through to category 4 would probably mean a more asymmetrical CDO to be able to form all around the center .. some clear problems on IR showing up on that eastern to South Eastern side .. she wraps up a bit more and we will probably be looking at a 4 ... I think she’ll make landfall as a strong category 3 though
 
We have a major again

...DELTA REGAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 93.4W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
 
GaWx said:
Based on analogs, how healthy the storm appears, and the near ideal conditions projected for the next 36 hours, I'm growing more and more concerned that there will be a cat 4 offshore and a subsequent 950-955ish mb cat 3 landfall on LA despite the cooler shelf waters.

Here are the analogs that are mainly from the same time of year (early Oct thus meaning very likely similarly cooler shelf waters) and mainly peaked in the N Gulf as a cat 4 in some cases after rapid intensification. In 4 of the 6 cases, landfall was in LA. In all but one case, ENSO is similar to today's. In 4 of the 6 cases, it had crossed or was just offshore the Yucatan:

1. Opal of 1995: in early Oct and came off Yucatan. It went from a TS to a 916 mb cat 4 in the N Gulf within only 48 hours! It then weakened but still landfalled as a cat 3 in the FL Panhandle.

2. Carmen of 1974: Only one not in Oct. Like Delta, it was very powerful before major weakening on the Yucatan as it weakened to only a TS. But soon after, he went from a TS to cat 4 H within only 48 hours just S of LA with SLP down into the 930s! He then turned left/weakened slightly and landfalled in LA as a cat 3 I think.

3. Hilda of 1964: in early October in the C GOM south of LA went from a TS to a cat 4 941 mb H (150 mph winds) within only a 36 hour period. She made landfall in LA as a cat 3 with 950 mb SLP.

4. 1893 storm #10: Even though it was early Oct., it rapidly strengthened into a 948 mb cat 4 in the shelf waters just off SE LA and it made landfall in SE LA as a cat 4.

5. 1886 storm #10: after crossing the corner of the Yucatan, it at about the same time in Oct became a cat 3 only within 100 miles offshore LA and made landfall in W LA with ~120 mph winds. Lowest pressure was 955 mb, which I assume was onshore.

6. 1877 storm # 4: only one with different ENSO (El Nino). After the center barely missed the Yucatan, it strengthened into a 960 mb cat 3 just offshore Apalachicola on October 2 and then came ashore as a cat 3.
Click to expand...

Bump. The 6 analogs (Opal, Carmen, Hilda, 1893 #10, 1886 #10, and 1877 #4) suggesting a good chance of this to get back to cat 4 and a landfall on LA at cat 3 are looking awfully good right now, unfortunately.
 
Maybe I'm wrong but it does looks as if Delta is moving at a good pace almost due north with some east wobbles.
 
accu35 said:
Maybe I'm wrong but it does looks as if Delta is moving at a good pace almost due north with some east wobbles.
Click to expand...
If that's so than it's making the turn earlier than expected.
 
accu35 said:
Maybe I'm wrong but it does looks as if Delta is moving at a good pace almost due north with some east wobbles.
Click to expand...

Apparently you’re wrong. The 8PM was at 93.5 W vs 93.4 W at 5 PM and movement was NNW as of then. Don’t be fooled by wobbles.
The furthest west on the track is 93.9 late tonight. I don’t know if it will get that far west though.
 
weatherboyy said:
Move at N .not nnw
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Nope, you’re wrong. Enough with your wishcasting it closer to Slidell:


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 93.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
 
accu35 said:
All due respect, Larry "GaWx" is very knowledgeable of what he does and if I was wrong he will let me know. I have alot of respect for him and learned alot from him over the years. Maybe you should do the same.
Click to expand...
I don't need to learn anything from him I know a lot too he don't live down here so he ain't been through a lot of hurricanes like we have
 
GaWx said:
Nope, you’re wrong. Enough with your wishcasting it closer to Slidell:


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 93.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
Click to expand...
In addition, the recon fixes are all coming in at NNW
recon_AF309-1626A-DELTA.png
 
GaWx said:
Nope, you’re wrong. Enough with your wishcasting it closer to Slidell:


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 93.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
Click to expand...

WELL SHE HAS SLOWED DOWN SOME SO IM INTERESTED TO SEE HOW THAT PLAYS OUT
 
Actually one reason some of us are rooting for this storm to make the turn sooner than later is so the storm will avoid the populated and battered city of Lake Charles. If it can go just a little further east the area isn't as populated, not as storm beaten from Laura.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts.
 
accu35 said:
Got to say this year has been crazy with the tropics, but I'm ready for my winter storms and my chase season
Click to expand...
Yeah, I'm starting to feel some hurricane fatigue. How soon can we in the south start tracking our board wide winter storms? Give me sleet, snow, ice, even a good blizzard. I'm done with these canes at this point.
 
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