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Tropical Major Hurricane Delta

Gfs doesnt budge at 12z. Seems to be zeroing in on the central coast and correct me if I'm wrong but it was at 971mb at 6z and stronger down in low 960s at 12z.
 

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Does anyone have a close in surge forecast map for NO/LA area?
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Would a stronger hurricane mean a more westerly track ?
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Typically a stronger hurricane would want to pull more northward quicker which would argue for a more East track. However that’s not what we’re seeing in the models this morning. I do wonder if it’s being pulled a little more to the west due to the remnant low from Gamma. Either way from the models I’m looking at this morning no matter when the turn NE actually occurs, it looks to be fairly sharp turn.
 
Watch Levi video he explains all about the direction the storm can take. Still long ways out and expect changes
 
Cooler water eastern gulf and warmer waters west gulf is the reason models are predicting a powerful storm because of Delta moving in that direction. The problem is if it slows a bit in the western gulf, it will have nothing but warm water until landfall coming from the sw to the ne.
 
accu35 said:
Cooler water eastern gulf and warmer waters west gulf is the reason models are predicting a powerful storm because of Delta moving in that direction. The problem is if it slows a bit in the western gulf, it will have nothing but warm water until landfall coming from the sw to the ne.
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Plus more time to pull northeast
 
And the 12Z UKMET now joins the further west party. Also, it is very strong at landfall I’m Central LA at 948 mb! ?

HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 82.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2020 0 18.0N 82.3W 977 61
0000UTC 07.10.2020 12 19.2N 84.8W 968 66
1200UTC 07.10.2020 24 21.2N 87.4W 972 60
0000UTC 08.10.2020 36 22.5N 90.3W 964 64
1200UTC 08.10.2020 48 23.8N 92.3W 964 65
0000UTC 09.10.2020 60 25.2N 93.1W 956 71
1200UTC 09.10.2020 72 27.0N 93.2W 946 75
0000UTC 10.10.2020 84 29.5N 92.2W 948 78
1200UTC 10.10.2020 96 32.0N 91.4W 984 33
0000UTC 11.10.2020 108 33.3N 90.0W 994 24
1200UTC 11.10.2020 120 34.9N 87.7W 999 22
0000UTC 12.10.2020 132 38.1N 84.6W 999 30
1200UTC 12.10.2020 144 41.0N 82.1W 999 35
 
I do see recon showing a little more Northerly component (to the WNW movement) *shorter term movement* Biggest thing is can this avoid a landfall over the Yucatan.
 
GaWx said:
And the 12Z UKMET now joins the further west party. Also, it is very strong at landfall I’m Central LA at 948 mb! ?

HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 82.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2020 0 18.0N 82.3W 977 61
0000UTC 07.10.2020 12 19.2N 84.8W 968 66
1200UTC 07.10.2020 24 21.2N 87.4W 972 60
0000UTC 08.10.2020 36 22.5N 90.3W 964 64
1200UTC 08.10.2020 48 23.8N 92.3W 964 65
0000UTC 09.10.2020 60 25.2N 93.1W 956 71
1200UTC 09.10.2020 72 27.0N 93.2W 946 75
0000UTC 10.10.2020 84 29.5N 92.2W 948 78
1200UTC 10.10.2020 96 32.0N 91.4W 984 33
0000UTC 11.10.2020 108 33.3N 90.0W 994 24
1200UTC 11.10.2020 120 34.9N 87.7W 999 22
0000UTC 12.10.2020 132 38.1N 84.6W 999 30
1200UTC 12.10.2020 144 41.0N 82.1W 999 35
Click to expand...
Geez.
 
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