ForsythSnow
Moderator
110mph 962 mb at 8 am. Almost a major.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Delta
- Thread starter Ollie Williams
- Start date
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- Tags
- tropical
snowlover91
Member
And based on this pressure is probably 959-960 when adjusted. This likely makes a run at cat 5 if an EWRC doesn’t hinder it.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Well it only has to close its eyewall and then it will really bomb off. Here's the latest VDM. Note the bolded is the eye radius in miles. Last one earlier was 8 and it's now 6 NM.
Shaggy
Member
That's insane. We know what happened with wilma when her eye was that small but she was moving slower. Gonna be an interesting 24 hours.
I know most models clip the Yucatan and I think have shifted west some over the last couple of days, but don't be surprised to see this gain a little latitude and shoot the gap between Yucatan and Cuba. When models miss, it's usually to the N or NE due to strong TC pulling poleward.
Dawgdaze22
Member
What are the chances this thing makes landfall east of NOLA. With models seeming around NOLA and a little west, how much can they shift?
I agree, I Think this could stay off the coast near the Yucatan. I could be wrong, but this time of the year with an incoming trof (as it approaches the US) they love to hook NE quickly.
Dawgdaze22
Member
I’ve had the same feeling. Idk why, but i think landfall East of Nola
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Not very high at the moment. Consensus is tight except the HMON which is a worst-case scenario for NOLA. What should be worrying is that a lot of modeling intensifies in the Gulf still after land interaction.
That being said it is a very small storm at the moment and likely will be a major any moment.
Showmeyourtds
Member
Isn't this kind of movement something that is generally climo-favored? I know Opal, Nate & Michael seemed to ease towards the East over time. Seems like there's some sort of weak block that extends out from Western FL into the central GOM that is wanting to force this thing farther west before adjusting East.
That is me thinking out loud, typically these do trend/ease eastward with time (this time of the year). That doesn't mean it is going to happen that way for sure, because I could see a western LA landfall as well. Time will tell for sure.
Shaggy
Member
That high over the mid Atlantic doesnt seem in any major hurry and drops SE instead of progressing east and out to sea. The 06z gefs seems pretty tightly clustered minus speed differences. I'm not sold on an east trend yet but climo says expect it at some point.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Climo and pretty much every gulf storm this year has done so. Had the euro taking the last one into Houston about 48 hours before landfall only for it to be in the MS/LA area.
Yeah, just in a vacuum I would expect that quick hook East.
Shaggy
Member
I dont disagree. I'm simply looking at the high placement and movement on the GFS. If the high was going from central Pa to off cape cod I'd be 100% sold on the east correction. Instead the high drifts SE from PA to off Va/NC. That progression is key in how much east correction we get.......but this is just my opinion........maybe a met can interject some better understanding of the pattern?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
So data from recon on the prior pass where they measured 957mb stated the eyewall is now closed. Probably why on IR we see an eye trying to form.
I think its time to say this has fully been cleared for take-off!
farleydawg792
Member
Climo of early Oct storms, especially in La Nina, also suggests tracks as far west as the TX/LA border are quite believable. So, for now I’m going with LA west of New Orleans since it has good model support.
Agreed