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Tropical Major Hurricane Delta

18Z HWRF: A major H hit on LA in the 950s though well west of NO. That's very strong for Oct in the N Gulf. Michael was a once in a lifetime Oct hit and Opal is a rarity.
 
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BHS1975 said:
Those SSTs are boiling. The sky is the limit.
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But not boiling in the N Gulf thank goodness! They're near normal for early October with nice cooling from the peak thanks to several cold fronts. But if Delta were to come in as a cat 4 like the HWRF shows and with it not moving slowly, LA would still likely be looking at a cat 3 landfall.
 
GaWx said:
But not boiling in the N Gulf thank goodness! They're near normal for early October with nice cooling from the peak thanks to several cold fronts. But if Delta were to come in as a cat 4 like the HWRF shows and with it not moving slowly, LA would still likely be looking at a cat 3 landfall.
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yeah THCP weaksauce in the gulf.
 

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Good news with this one is we will not have a peaking storm making landfall. Delta will be in the decline or even rapid decline by the time it’s close to the US coast.

Doesn’t mean impacts will be small or insignificant but thankfully we aren’t looking at a “doomsday” scenario.

26.5c is regarded as the bottom end threshold for hurricanes. With a nice portion of the gulf below that point Delta will be a declining storm upon landfall. The question is how high does it get before temps drop off.

12z euro gets it into the 960s before declining to the 990s at landfall.
The recent hwrf is a bomb but also weakens abt 30mb from peak before landfall.

All good news!
64150C0D-D029-4998-870F-60B015FA8067.png188CD5D2-2872-4C4E-9615-525AA531BD13.png
 
I make these all the time with our tropical systems. Should post them more.

Delta looks ready to rock and roll tonight on WV. Nice symmetrical “CDO” with a fully wrapped center. Very organized compared to recent systems we have seen in their early stages.

Delta also has a nice big envelope of moisture and the dry air in front is moving with Delta not against. I don’t see any dry air being a problem. It’s first roadblock is probably land interaction from the relatively flat Yucatán peninsula.

44C6E0BD-0A91-4F2A-AE03-587A4ECF8D8D.jpeg

A storm this symmetrical in the early stages usually goes on to be a nice specimen in the coming 24-36hrs.

Recent radar loop also shows a nice symmetrical eyewall forming. Slow GIF.2BA45A2C-0B5F-4A16-8DAB-2E056209EA3E.gif

Here is a good site to bookmark to search out radars in the Caribbean and the rest of the world.

https://tropicalatlantic.com/radars/
 
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NCSNOW said:
Katrina was a 5 and made LF as a 3,Right? Even though it was weakening at LF,the cat 5 surge was well on its way. Correct me if im wrong. Thats what I always worry about in NO,is the surge, pressure on the levees etc.
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Correct
 
Fountainguy97 said:
Good news with this one is we will not have a peaking storm making landfall. Delta will be in the decline or even rapid decline by the time it’s close to the US coast.

Doesn’t mean impacts will be small or insignificant but thankfully we aren’t looking at a “doomsday” scenario.

26.5c is regarded as the bottom end threshold for hurricanes. With a nice portion of the gulf below that point Delta will be a declining storm upon landfall. The question is how high does it get before temps drop off.

12z euro gets it into the 960s before declining to the 990s at landfall.
The recent hwrf is a bomb but also weakens abt 30mb from peak before landfall.

All good news!
View attachment 49825View attachment 49826
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Can the water temps warm over the next few days before arrival?
 
BHS1975 said:
They will cool a bit if anything.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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It's not even just water temperature there will be increasing shear with the recurvature

Not that I'm downplaying at all even a weakening Cat 2/3 from a possible 4 is a bad deal
 
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