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Tropical Major Hurricane Delta

This has been a crazy year for the tropics, and looks like it is going out with a bang. NHC has it hitting as a cat 2 hurricane. I think we're very lucky that we haven't had more landfall hurricanes than we did this year.
 
Brick Tamland said:
This has been a crazy year for the tropics, and looks like it is going out with a bang. NHC has it hitting as a cat 2 hurricane. I think we're very lucky that we haven't had more landfall hurricanes than we did this year.
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"Haven't had more landfall hurricanes than we did this year"? This makes what number 4 hitting the US?? And that's not counting the current storm in the gulf headed towards Texas/Mexico
 
I think the further east this can stay and if it can hook a bit at the end that's probably how it could get that strong IMHO.
 
Oct 1-10 TC genesis climo tracks: Note that there have been in the W Caribbean only ~37 geneses (when adding Nate and Michael) documented during Oct 1-10 since 1851 and about the same number for Oct 11-15. Yes, many were likely missed before 1960. But regardless, getting 2 during just Oct 1-10 is sort of verifying the idea that the very warm and largely untouched W Car waters in combo with ENSO based analogs (weak to moderate La Nina following a weak to moderate El Nino) was strongly suggesting that there'd be this level of activity there and for the CONUS among other locations to be vigilant:

Z9UzTbN.png


Note also that climo says that tracks all the way to as far west as LA are very believable. However, that same climo tells me that folks as far E as the FL Big Bend should be watching this very closely. Regardless of the exact track, the threat of more very heavy rains where Sally gave flooding historic rains is very real and may once again end up a big story.
 
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18z EPS favors a LA landfall but with heaviest rainfall risk from E LA to SW AL:

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Arcc said:
Probably a significant inland wind threat with this one if it can ramp up to cat 2-3. It’s the season for these things to be hauling butt at landfall.
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Very good point. And if its strong and hooks NE and starts to accelerate then I fully agree with you.
 
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