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Tropical Major Hurricane Delta

000
WTNT31 KNHC 051452
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...DELTA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 78.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Click to expand...
 
This is another situation where models are far west towards Louisiana but will probably start correcting east before landfall. That's scary for places like Mobile to Florida panhandle.
 
accu35 said:
This is another situation where models are far west towards Louisiana but will probably start correcting east before landfall. That's scary for places like Mobile to Florida panhandle.
Click to expand...
The interaction with Gamma may cause a little model fluctuation here. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out, less interaction is probably father east more interaction may be west
 
Already 60 mph I wouldn't be surprised if it's a hurricane by this evening

...DELTA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE CARIBBEAN...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 79.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
metwannabe said:
Not expecting this buuuuut, have we ever had to retire a greek named storm? I don't think so but this is 2020 right
Click to expand...

I don't think any Greek names were retired in 2005. If my memory serves me correct, we had Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan
&
Wilma


That said, I do know a Greek guy named Stan...so perhaps?
 
I hope this can bring Shetley some much needed rain! ?
 
Interesting note the Gamma recon for this evening has been redirected to Delta so we won't have as much of a gap if it is rapidly intensifying now

The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index gives a
better than 50 percent chance of a 35-40 kt increase in wind speed
over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follow suit by
calling for rapid intensification over the next day or so, and
Delta is forecast to be a major hurricane when is passes near or
over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula.
 
Current SSTs for the Gulf and W Caribbean: per the progged path, the waters Delta will be crossing won't be getting below 29 C/84 F for another 72 hours or so. :eek: :eek:

cqXs9kO.gif


Normals for Oct: Based on this, the W Car and S Gulf are a good 1C/2 F or so warmer than normal whereas the N Gulf is near normal vs the much near record warmth for early Oct just preceding Michael in 2018:

yNdBh9Z.gif
 
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