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Tropical Major Hurricane Delta

Gfs doesnt budge at 12z. Seems to be zeroing in on the central coast and correct me if I'm wrong but it was at 971mb at 6z and stronger down in low 960s at 12z.
 

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Dewpoint Dan said:
Would a stronger hurricane mean a more westerly track ?
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Typically a stronger hurricane would want to pull more northward quicker which would argue for a more East track. However that’s not what we’re seeing in the models this morning. I do wonder if it’s being pulled a little more to the west due to the remnant low from Gamma. Either way from the models I’m looking at this morning no matter when the turn NE actually occurs, it looks to be fairly sharp turn.
 
Watch Levi video he explains all about the direction the storm can take. Still long ways out and expect changes
 
Cooler water eastern gulf and warmer waters west gulf is the reason models are predicting a powerful storm because of Delta moving in that direction. The problem is if it slows a bit in the western gulf, it will have nothing but warm water until landfall coming from the sw to the ne.
 
accu35 said:
Cooler water eastern gulf and warmer waters west gulf is the reason models are predicting a powerful storm because of Delta moving in that direction. The problem is if it slows a bit in the western gulf, it will have nothing but warm water until landfall coming from the sw to the ne.
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Plus more time to pull northeast
 
And the 12Z UKMET now joins the further west party. Also, it is very strong at landfall I’m Central LA at 948 mb! ?

HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 82.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2020 0 18.0N 82.3W 977 61
0000UTC 07.10.2020 12 19.2N 84.8W 968 66
1200UTC 07.10.2020 24 21.2N 87.4W 972 60
0000UTC 08.10.2020 36 22.5N 90.3W 964 64
1200UTC 08.10.2020 48 23.8N 92.3W 964 65
0000UTC 09.10.2020 60 25.2N 93.1W 956 71
1200UTC 09.10.2020 72 27.0N 93.2W 946 75
0000UTC 10.10.2020 84 29.5N 92.2W 948 78
1200UTC 10.10.2020 96 32.0N 91.4W 984 33
0000UTC 11.10.2020 108 33.3N 90.0W 994 24
1200UTC 11.10.2020 120 34.9N 87.7W 999 22
0000UTC 12.10.2020 132 38.1N 84.6W 999 30
1200UTC 12.10.2020 144 41.0N 82.1W 999 35
 
I do see recon showing a little more Northerly component (to the WNW movement) *shorter term movement* Biggest thing is can this avoid a landfall over the Yucatan.
 
GaWx said:
And the 12Z UKMET now joins the further west party. Also, it is very strong at landfall I’m Central LA at 948 mb! ?

HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 82.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2020 0 18.0N 82.3W 977 61
0000UTC 07.10.2020 12 19.2N 84.8W 968 66
1200UTC 07.10.2020 24 21.2N 87.4W 972 60
0000UTC 08.10.2020 36 22.5N 90.3W 964 64
1200UTC 08.10.2020 48 23.8N 92.3W 964 65
0000UTC 09.10.2020 60 25.2N 93.1W 956 71
1200UTC 09.10.2020 72 27.0N 93.2W 946 75
0000UTC 10.10.2020 84 29.5N 92.2W 948 78
1200UTC 10.10.2020 96 32.0N 91.4W 984 33
0000UTC 11.10.2020 108 33.3N 90.0W 994 24
1200UTC 11.10.2020 120 34.9N 87.7W 999 22
0000UTC 12.10.2020 132 38.1N 84.6W 999 30
1200UTC 12.10.2020 144 41.0N 82.1W 999 35
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Geez.
 
deltadog03 said:
I do see recon showing a little more Northerly component (to the WNW movement) *shorter term movement* Biggest thing is can this avoid a landfall over the Yucatan.
Click to expand...
I agree it does show a Northerly component. Levi also mentioned if Delta doesn't entwine with Gamma due to Gamma sw movement than expect a east trend in the future.
 
SD said:
Really thought that it would start to weaken as it approached the coast.... Maybe not
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Next frame is actually 964 at landfall so some minor weakening, also shows some monster rain totals NE Ga/upstate SC, WNC thinks to some serious upsloping
 
RI continues

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
 
Brent said:
RI continues

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
Click to expand...
Can we just take a second and gawk at the 100 mph gain this thing has made in 30 hours?
 
CAT 4 approaching CAT 5 and we still don’t have a cleared out eye? Hmmmm I haven’t seen a storm with no cleared out eye that is this strong .. very interesting .. would assume she has to pop one out here soon we can’t go CAT 5 with NO clear eye right?
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
CAT 4 approaching CAT 5 and we still don’t have a cleared out eye? Hmmmm I haven’t seen a storm with no cleared out eye that is this strong .. very interesting .. would assume she has to pop one out here soon we can’t go CAT 5 with NO clear eye right?
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Has to do with the RI and size of the eye. It's visible on IR to some degree but because it was a TS around 24 hours ago and its eye is now only 4 miles wide, it's hard to clear with the pressure it has is my guess.
 
Wow the most recent images on IR show a recent almost instantaneous blow up of thunderstorms around what appears to be that extremely tiny eye ... truly something I have not seen in my short years of tracking hurricanes ... just insane stuff
 

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