• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Delta

Brent said:
I mean we went from a PTC to a hurricane in a day

The sky is the limit the next couple of days other than the Yucatan
Click to expand...
Yup....NHC says reasonable to believe that rapid intensification will continue in the short term.
 
TS winds out only 60 miles from center.....got to watch these small tight cores.....tend to go boom in that part of the world....
 
A center relocation in a hurricane? Odd

POORLY DEFINED EYE W/RAGGED BANDS ON S SIDE, OPEN N.
WEAK RADAR SIGNATURE ~5 MI NE OF FIX (ONLY 2 MI WIDE) INDICATED NEW
PSBL LLC DEVELOPING, BUT FL WINDS DID NOT YET SUPPORT THIS FEATURE.
;

If this gets a 2 mile wide eye though Cancun is screwed
 
Brent said:
A center relocation in a hurricane? Odd

POORLY DEFINED EYE W/RAGGED BANDS ON S SIDE, OPEN N.
WEAK RADAR SIGNATURE ~5 MI NE OF FIX (ONLY 2 MI WIDE) INDICATED NEW
PSBL LLC DEVELOPING, BUT FL WINDS DID NOT YET SUPPORT THIS FEATURE.
;

If this gets a 2 mile wide eye though Cancun is screwed
Click to expand...

Yeah that is a bit weird, its just about to get in the 150 mile range of Caymen's radar so maybe that will help, it does look much worse the last hr or two....at least with the banding...

 
The HWRF basically has a Cat 5 hitting Cancun

This storm was headed for Western Cuba yesterday...

hwrf_ref_26L_12 (1).pnghwrf_satIR_26L_7.png
 
HWRF second round of strengthening late Wednesday into Thursday hwrf_satIR_26L_12.png.

and then as it approaches landfall on Friday you definitely see signs of weakening up into the 950s but it's still a very formidable hurricane here

hwrf_satIR_26L_16.pnghwrf_ref_26L_31.png
 
Euro is really far west like where Laura hit actually from 72 to 96 almost looks like it's gonna hit Texas but of course it turns right last night it was north of New Orleans here!prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc (4).png
 
Last edited:
Pressure 974, center still looks like its struggling a bit on radar, luckily for Cayman the circulation is so small right now.
 
Well she doesn’t seem to be struggling that’s for sure .. rapidly just intensified into a CAT 2 hurricane ... buckle up we have all day of warm water and great conditions for this thing.. boutta see it pop an eye any hour now
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Well she doesn’t seem to be struggling that’s for sure .. rapidly just intensified into a CAT 2 hurricane ... buckle up we have all day of warm water and great conditions for this thing.. boutta see it pop an eye any hour now
Click to expand...

Radar is looking better the core is small so it doesnt take much NHC very bullish....the pressure hung out at 974 for a few passes as the eyewall reorganized and it appears it is off to the races again...

"The hurricane is in the midst of a very impressive rapid
intensification episode, having strengthened over 50 kt during the
past 24 hours. I honestly don't see much that will stop it until it
reaches Yucatan, due to low vertical wind shear, high deep-layer
moisture, and the very warm and deep waters of the northwestern
Caribbean. This is also supported by SHIPS rapid intensification
probabilities that are well above 50 percent for most categories.
Thus, the intensity forecast is raised to 115 kt near Yucatan
landfall, closest to the HWRF forecast model, which has been a
good performer this year, especially after ingesting NOAA radar
data. "
 
They were saying yesterday it might make it to a car 2, now NHC saying cat 4 is possible now! Now dropped 74 MB in 24 hours, per TWC
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top