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Pattern Magnificent March

yeah, we had 12+ inches at the end of the 5 day forecast.. everyone thought the weathermen had gone insane.
 
91C67DBC-0F14-48B7-82FC-99AD37872274.png This is for a week after Monday’s potential, hmmmm..... 3/1960 redux
 
Some 6” per hour rates yesterday in CT, PA , with the Nor’easter! Now that’s a true death band! More snow in an hour than I’ve seen in 3 winters! :(
 
Euro much drier. anyone who sees flakes would not see rates enough to amount to anything I think. Solutions still pretty far apart though. Need a bomb this time of year. And a little button hook move would be cool too, ...
 
Looks like the Raleigh folks have one to track





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A friend in Marion, NC just SE of the blue ridge has told me it's snowing there some snow showers managed to make it over the Appalachians and are creeping up on the Charlotte metro. Not sure if any of the returns in southern Randolph county & northern Montgomery county are reaching the ground, it's probably virga but they've been growing ever more impressive the last 30-45 minutes or so. The bottom of the 0.5 degree elevation angle beam is about 4000 feet off the ground so it's probably snowing down to that level and it wouldn't surprise me if some flurries are reaching the ground in the Uwharries.

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Looks like the Raleigh folks have one to track





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And just like that the 6Z GFS says the same. I wouldn't be on anything, but it could bring snow to TN if it does NC. Too bad it'll be just too warm down here, but that's what we get for March.
 
Euro much drier. anyone who sees flakes would not see rates enough to amount to anything I think. Solutions still pretty far apart though. Need a bomb this time of year. And a little button hook move would be cool too, ...

Yep all kinds of BL issues. Token flakes are better than nothing this time of year . Like you said , better pray for good rates if you’re expecting anything out of this system . A phased bomb obviously changes things but that seems less likely at this point and the southern stream wave just doesn’t want to slow down enough


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As depicted in this 12z GSO sounding, any moisture starved virga/light snow showers forming around 750-800 hPa that manage to make it over the mountains will have to contend w/ dry air in the lowest few thousand feet and low-level CAA. The modest cyclonic vorticity advection at the base of this upper level trough over the lower Great Lakes seems to be providing the forcing for ascent here. I can see this low-level dry layer being overcome in a few spots if the virga is heavy and persistent enough.

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What I wonder are the temp profiles. I'm sure that looking at that, there isn't much cold wrapping into the system. The models seem to say that the further south it goes, the less phasing that happens. Given that, I would only expect a few backside flurries or snow showers on the northern fringe per the 0Z solution.
 
What I wonder are the temp profiles. I'm sure that looking at that, there isn't much cold wrapping into the system. The models seem to say that the further south it goes, the less phasing that happens. Given that, I would only expect a few backside flurries or snow showers on the northern fringe per the 0Z solution.
It’ll make its own cold air, it’s origins are from Canada!
 
Saw 6z Gefs on amx. Very nice trend/uptick, espeacilly Northern/Western NC and Southern VA. Starting to shade or shadow down into SC as well.
 
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