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Pattern Magnificent March

Clear skies, a full March sun and I’m sitting at 48 degrees at 2:50pm on March 7th


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47.8 here and that is the high so far. Feels cold after the 70s we had not long ago for sure. Forecast low tonight is 29 according to my point forecast...if the winds keep up though I don't see it getting quite that cold.
 
18z a little south and interesting for border counties and apps
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Jon said:
18z a little south and interesting for border counties and apps
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If you account for the GFS's garbage low-level thermal profiles that are related to its boundary layer scheme (note the spurious unsaturated mixed layer in the lowest 50-75 mb of the sounding, this same feature has been observed in the last 2 storms in the NE US and both times the GFS ended up being way too warm and the layer was saturated and cooler (not to say that automatically means more snow but it's an intriguing observation worth keeping in the back of your mind here), I would concur that this could support some wintry precipitation in climatologically favored areas of NC, including the mountains, far NW piedmont, and VA border counties.
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SD said:
Das icon. Need some BL help though
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Excluding non-negligible diurnal impacts that would be evident here, a strong cold-core ULL diving SE out of the Canadian Prairies w/ very cold mid level temps in the wake of a nice coastal low gives us about as much help as we could ask for to limit BL issues and allow snow to fall even if surface temps are well above freezing. One can certainly hope but alas it's the 18z ICON at day 5...
 
Tarheel1 said:
It’s trended Southe the last two days! The MA thread is priceless now!
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The gfs has been as steady as it gets , if that’s possible . The euro was further north vs it’s 00z run. It’s all timing . They need a full phase . The 18z GEFS is boom or bust for them . I’m all in since I’ll be up there but I’m sure it will trend just south enough to give me partly cloudy skies and flurries


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The GFS has been scary consistent but does no good if it's wrong. The Euro will be right because in the last few days it has had Arkansas/ Missouri,Tennessee/Kentucky, Virginia/NC and nobody as the bullseye. When it comes to models, they all suck.:)
 
Since Feburnary sucked so hard , might take a Sunday afternoon trip to the N.C. mountains and take advantage of the extra hour of daylight and see some snow!:weenie:
 
Storm5 said:
The gfs has been as steady as it gets , if that’s possible . The euro was further north vs it’s 00z run. It’s all timing . They need a full phase . The 18z GEFS is boom or bust for them . I’m all in since I’ll be up there but I’m sure it will trend just south enough to give me partly cloudy skies and flurries


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The GFS had the LP up in Ky, southern WV last night. Now has it south coming across Northern MS, AL . Ukie track.
 
NCSNOW said:
The GFS had the LP up in Ky, southern WV last night. Now has it south coming across Northern MS, AL . Ukie track.
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The 12z ukmet nuked the MA and the NE and is a great track for them . The gfs track is SE of the ukmet


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GFS has LP over northern Alabama at hour 84. NAM has it over northern Florida at the same time.
 
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whamby said:
I wonder where the current Gfs would have had the march 93 storm... probably would have sent the low to Cuba.
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I remember that the models ... at least whatever the weather channel used ... were seeing that a long way out. seemed like they had that one pegged.
 
GaWx said:
I also distinctly remember this. A very well predicted storm to say the least!
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You ain't kidding. Pegged from 5 days out on media. One of the best forecasting jobs of all time. Kicker is it was a triple phaser. Complex trying to time and pinpoint phased pieces of energy/ jets 24 to 48 hrs out in todays time.
 
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