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Pattern Magnificent March

LovingGulfLows said:
It might have potential if the 500mb closes off like the 12z UKMET was showing. That being said, the surface temps are a mess.
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540 thickness line is runing through central nc. But yea surface / BL are always issue.

Anyway gfs continues to eek further south each run. 0z smashes Boone to Richmond. Ukie is off SC COAST, MYB WILM. LOOKS intriguing from l.p. position. Thinking this has some southern slider potential .I'D be getting little excited in northern mtns and along NC/ VA border
 
The Mag March continues. The next 3 days will average near the normal for the dead of winter! Enjoy and thank you -NAO! We deserve this after the ridiculous Feb we just had to endure.
 
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Great coffee drinking, porch sitting, seat rocking weather. What more can you ask for
 
Getting sucked in. Wouldn't be shocked to see a few snowflakes outside of the mountains late this weekend into Monday
 
SD said:
Getting sucked in. Wouldn't be shocked to see a few snowflakes outside of the mountains late this weekend into Monday
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Painful to see this setup develop, if only this was mid/late February. Even so, NW NC into VA looks promising. The BC/Alberta ridge connected to NAO region is typically good sign for Raleigh snowfalls. I recall 1300m posted composites, wish I knew where they were.

Aleutian ridge building into AK, EPO tanks, and it looks to get solidly below normal.

I am flying to Northern Virginia on Sunday, I could be flying right over a big snowfall.

EPStrends.gif
 
Kylo said:
Painful to see this setup develop, if only this was mid/late February. Even so, NW NC into VA looks promising. The BC/Alberta ridge connected to NAO region is typically good sign for Raleigh snowfalls. I recall 1300m posted composites, wish I knew where they were.

Aleutian ridge building into AK, EPO tanks, and it looks to get solidly below normal.

I am flying to Northern Virginia on Sunday, I could be flying right over a big snowfall.

View attachment 4341
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Yes, very painful. All this does is extend the jacket wearing season and prolong the time it's too cold to roll down my windows in the car. Boo. And I'm good on rain for a while please. I thought Nina's were supposed to be dry?

lol. No, but really this seems to happen every early spring.
 
Kylo said:
Painful to see this setup develop, if only this was mid/late February. Even so, NW NC into VA looks promising. The BC/Alberta ridge connected to NAO region is typically good sign for Raleigh snowfalls. I recall 1300m posted composites, wish I knew where they were.

Aleutian ridge building into AK, EPO tanks, and it looks to get solidly below normal.

I am flying to Northern Virginia on Sunday, I could be flying right over a big snowfall.

View attachment 4341
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This truly is best case given how warm feb was for almost everyone but the SE. I know it’s frustrating but anyone trashing the -NAO hype is obviously located in one region...the one without snow, lol. We just couldn’t quite get the HP needed for us to cash in, but the moisture logging of the SE will continue.

8cb7edf0af757cbd30b68115a5d1404d.jpg



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Tired of the rain and cold now. If we aren't going to get snow, I'd rather it just be warm and dry, and have some chances at following severe weather.
 
Jon said:
This truly is best case given how warm feb was for almost everyone but the SE. I know it’s frustrating but anyone trashing the -NAO hype is obviously located in one region...the one without snow, lol. We just couldn’t quite get the HP needed for us to cash in, but the moisture logging of the SE will continue.

8cb7edf0af757cbd30b68115a5d1404d.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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The NAO is impressive that's for sure.

The 12z UK run is just nuts for western NC and into the middle atlantic and northeast. Full fledge phase with the digging upper low and polar vortex dropping down. For as good as the 12z GFS looked for those areas the UK looks bigger.
 
Per 12Z GFS, Phil gets back down into the 30s 3/14-5!

SAV near freeze 3/15 per 12Z GFS.

Someone pinch me. Is this fantasy or real? The walking is going to be great!
 
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1300m said:
One of the issues that I've been saying is an issue and continues to be an issue is the fact that the air mass is not cold and dry enough. Most of the really cold and dry stuff went into Europe after the PV split. If this would have happened before we lost all of the cold locked up in Canada back in mid to late February, then yes, I am confident this pattern would have produced.

Unfortunately, we are now dealing with a modified air mass and a March sun angle that will only continue to worsen that. Even much of the northeast are dealing with mixing and rain issues with their storm today, although many of them will still end up getting a big, wet snow with temps at or just above freezing.





P.S. Here's the composite chart I think you were referencing. Certainly based on the evolution of the pattern the next storm would be the one to watch if the storm track were further south overall and we had more cold/dry air available.

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Thanks! This is a fairly cold ULL, but like you said it doesn't dig far enough southeast for us. Boundary would have been a problem, but when isn't it. Atleast we won't have to worry about temps this time, who cares with a cold rain.

gfs_T850a_us_19.png


gfs_T850a_us_22.png
 
GaWx said:
Per 12Z GFS, Phil gets back down into the 30s 3/14-5!

SAV near freeze 3/15 per 12Z GFS.

Someone pinch me. Is this fantasy or real? The walking is going to be great!
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Larry,
Supposed to also be in the 30's the next two nights way down here at the Southern Command Outpost, as well.
Consumed with work, so haven't looked at the GFS, but if the 14th and 15th, man oh man what great walking weather.
:D
Best!
Phil
 
The 12Z Euro has zero days in the SE US totally warmer than normal of the next 10 with only 3/10-11 being near normal! The other 8 days are colder than normal Beautiful to see! A March to remember.
 
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