• We've made some major changes to the website. You can view a short list : Here
  • Hello guests. Please take a minute to sign up and join in the conversation. It's free, quick, and easy!

Pattern Magnificent March (2 Viewers)

dsaur

Supporter
Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
527
Likes
673
Location
40 miles south of Atl
#5
I've always regretted not having a kite to fly during the Bliz :) Some good ripstop with graphite struts, gov grade nylon cord, and 75 mph plus winds...man, oh, man, with a big enough kite I could fly, lol. Maybe this March is my second chance! Something is coming because everything is budding out, and that's tempting the fates..shaking their plant butts at old man winter...not smart in the middle of Feb, no matter how the models look. Of course, I've seen it work out for the plants in recent winters, but the new climate norms will include big swings...so I think plants shaking their fannies at winter in Feb is hubris.
 

ForsythSnow

Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
5,294
Likes
5,273
Location
North Forsyth County, Georgia
#7
He has officially moved to March


Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
"Sudden spike" is 26 sunspots. That has to be the stupidest most desperate attempt to explain the MJO speed. He's also using who knows what model, likely the CFSV2 to show those temps in several weeks. I think we torch in March. We will get our last major intrusion for a few days in probably mid March, then maybe another one or two before April bringing only a frost at most.
 
Joined
Jan 27, 2017
Messages
1,084
Likes
573
Location
Nashville, TN
#9
Why does anyone listen to this guy...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I can't wait until next year when he starts chirping "December to remember", then "Oh well, January and February will make up for it".. Then come mid-January, he will start singing "Cold and stormy February... winter delayed but not denied"... It's like a broken record
 
Joined
Jan 27, 2017
Messages
1,084
Likes
573
Location
Nashville, TN
#10
"Sudden spike" is 26 sunspots. That has to be the stupidest most desperate attempt to explain the MJO speed. He's also using who knows what model, likely the CFSV2 to show those temps in several weeks. I think we torch in March. We will get our last major intrusion for a few days in probably mid March, then maybe another one or two before April bringing only a frost at most.
W
 
Joined
Dec 2, 2016
Messages
4,634
Likes
3,249
Location
Greenville,SC
#13
"Sudden spike" is 26 sunspots. That has to be the stupidest most desperate attempt to explain the MJO speed. He's also using who knows what model, likely the CFSV2 to show those temps in several weeks. I think we torch in March. We will get our last major intrusion for a few days in probably mid March, then maybe another one or two before April bringing only a frost at most.
He’s going with the Pioneer model!
 
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
5,556
Likes
9,813
Location
Charlotte, NC
#18
"Sudden spike" is 26 sunspots. That has to be the stupidest most desperate attempt to explain the MJO speed. He's also using who knows what model, likely the CFSV2 to show those temps in several weeks. I think we torch in March. We will get our last major intrusion for a few days in probably mid March, then maybe another one or two before April bringing only a frost at most.
This is most likely a better explain for the MJO's speed and/or is getting at the root cause(s). MJO speed can be dictated by a plethora of variables, projection onto the RMM's principal components is one, a big one is advection by the background flow (for example during La Ninas with a weaker, less extensive Pacific Jet like we observed in this case, (remember the lack of jet extension I mentioned a few weeks ago?) the slower jet advects the MJO less quickly into the W hem & via versa during El Niño), the amount of convection can also influence MJO phase speed since convection is often co-located within and in the wake of most convectively coupled equatorial waves, more convection will slow the MJO down, but there's a limit on how intense the convection can become. It's also possible that the movement of the MJO into the descending branch of the Walker Cell and the sudden stratospheric warming event could be influencing the distribution & intensity of convection associated with the MJO and the plethora of CC waves that comprise it
 
Last edited:
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
5,556
Likes
9,813
Location
Charlotte, NC
#22
EPS is following suit here in a general sense, regardless ooks like we may have a window for one last storm in the upper south in the first week-10 days of March or so. I'd preferably like to see the Aleutian ridge get squelched a little more but beggars can't be choosers
gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_65.png
gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png
 

Jon

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
606
Likes
1,287
Location
RDU, NC
#23
Amazing similarities between the pattern change Late Feb/Early March 1962 to what’s occurring on the ensembles:



Last frame of the GEFS (March 2) vs March 5-10 1962 average anomaly:



1962 had a very strong -NAO for March


The historic east coast storm of March 1962 had me hesitant to mention it as an analog (didn’t want to hype) but I’ll let y’all decide


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

Users Who Are Viewing This Thread (Users: 0, Guests: 2)

Top