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Pattern Magnificent March

LovingGulfLows said:
It might have potential if the 500mb closes off like the 12z UKMET was showing. That being said, the surface temps are a mess.
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540 thickness line is runing through central nc. But yea surface / BL are always issue.

Anyway gfs continues to eek further south each run. 0z smashes Boone to Richmond. Ukie is off SC COAST, MYB WILM. LOOKS intriguing from l.p. position. Thinking this has some southern slider potential .I'D be getting little excited in northern mtns and along NC/ VA border
 
The Mag March continues. The next 3 days will average near the normal for the dead of winter! Enjoy and thank you -NAO! We deserve this after the ridiculous Feb we just had to endure.
 
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Great coffee drinking, porch sitting, seat rocking weather. What more can you ask for
 
Getting sucked in. Wouldn't be shocked to see a few snowflakes outside of the mountains late this weekend into Monday
 
SD said:
Getting sucked in. Wouldn't be shocked to see a few snowflakes outside of the mountains late this weekend into Monday
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Painful to see this setup develop, if only this was mid/late February. Even so, NW NC into VA looks promising. The BC/Alberta ridge connected to NAO region is typically good sign for Raleigh snowfalls. I recall 1300m posted composites, wish I knew where they were.

Aleutian ridge building into AK, EPO tanks, and it looks to get solidly below normal.

I am flying to Northern Virginia on Sunday, I could be flying right over a big snowfall.

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Kylo said:
Painful to see this setup develop, if only this was mid/late February. Even so, NW NC into VA looks promising. The BC/Alberta ridge connected to NAO region is typically good sign for Raleigh snowfalls. I recall 1300m posted composites, wish I knew where they were.

Aleutian ridge building into AK, EPO tanks, and it looks to get solidly below normal.

I am flying to Northern Virginia on Sunday, I could be flying right over a big snowfall.

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Yes, very painful. All this does is extend the jacket wearing season and prolong the time it's too cold to roll down my windows in the car. Boo. And I'm good on rain for a while please. I thought Nina's were supposed to be dry?

lol. No, but really this seems to happen every early spring.
 
Kylo said:
Painful to see this setup develop, if only this was mid/late February. Even so, NW NC into VA looks promising. The BC/Alberta ridge connected to NAO region is typically good sign for Raleigh snowfalls. I recall 1300m posted composites, wish I knew where they were.

Aleutian ridge building into AK, EPO tanks, and it looks to get solidly below normal.

I am flying to Northern Virginia on Sunday, I could be flying right over a big snowfall.

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This truly is best case given how warm feb was for almost everyone but the SE. I know it’s frustrating but anyone trashing the -NAO hype is obviously located in one region...the one without snow, lol. We just couldn’t quite get the HP needed for us to cash in, but the moisture logging of the SE will continue.

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Tired of the rain and cold now. If we aren't going to get snow, I'd rather it just be warm and dry, and have some chances at following severe weather.
 
Jon said:
This truly is best case given how warm feb was for almost everyone but the SE. I know it’s frustrating but anyone trashing the -NAO hype is obviously located in one region...the one without snow, lol. We just couldn’t quite get the HP needed for us to cash in, but the moisture logging of the SE will continue.

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The NAO is impressive that's for sure.

The 12z UK run is just nuts for western NC and into the middle atlantic and northeast. Full fledge phase with the digging upper low and polar vortex dropping down. For as good as the 12z GFS looked for those areas the UK looks bigger.
 
Per 12Z GFS, Phil gets back down into the 30s 3/14-5!

SAV near freeze 3/15 per 12Z GFS.

Someone pinch me. Is this fantasy or real? The walking is going to be great!
 
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1300m said:
One of the issues that I've been saying is an issue and continues to be an issue is the fact that the air mass is not cold and dry enough. Most of the really cold and dry stuff went into Europe after the PV split. If this would have happened before we lost all of the cold locked up in Canada back in mid to late February, then yes, I am confident this pattern would have produced.

Unfortunately, we are now dealing with a modified air mass and a March sun angle that will only continue to worsen that. Even much of the northeast are dealing with mixing and rain issues with their storm today, although many of them will still end up getting a big, wet snow with temps at or just above freezing.





P.S. Here's the composite chart I think you were referencing. Certainly based on the evolution of the pattern the next storm would be the one to watch if the storm track were further south overall and we had more cold/dry air available.

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Thanks! This is a fairly cold ULL, but like you said it doesn't dig far enough southeast for us. Boundary would have been a problem, but when isn't it. Atleast we won't have to worry about temps this time, who cares with a cold rain.

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GaWx said:
Per 12Z GFS, Phil gets back down into the 30s 3/14-5!

SAV near freeze 3/15 per 12Z GFS.

Someone pinch me. Is this fantasy or real? The walking is going to be great!
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Larry,
Supposed to also be in the 30's the next two nights way down here at the Southern Command Outpost, as well.
Consumed with work, so haven't looked at the GFS, but if the 14th and 15th, man oh man what great walking weather.
:D
Best!
Phil
 
The 12Z Euro has zero days in the SE US totally warmer than normal of the next 10 with only 3/10-11 being near normal! The other 8 days are colder than normal Beautiful to see! A March to remember.
 
Clear skies, a full March sun and I’m sitting at 48 degrees at 2:50pm on March 7th


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47.8 here and that is the high so far. Feels cold after the 70s we had not long ago for sure. Forecast low tonight is 29 according to my point forecast...if the winds keep up though I don't see it getting quite that cold.
 
18z a little south and interesting for border counties and apps
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Jon said:
18z a little south and interesting for border counties and apps
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If you account for the GFS's garbage low-level thermal profiles that are related to its boundary layer scheme (note the spurious unsaturated mixed layer in the lowest 50-75 mb of the sounding, this same feature has been observed in the last 2 storms in the NE US and both times the GFS ended up being way too warm and the layer was saturated and cooler (not to say that automatically means more snow but it's an intriguing observation worth keeping in the back of your mind here), I would concur that this could support some wintry precipitation in climatologically favored areas of NC, including the mountains, far NW piedmont, and VA border counties.
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SD said:
Das icon. Need some BL help though
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Excluding non-negligible diurnal impacts that would be evident here, a strong cold-core ULL diving SE out of the Canadian Prairies w/ very cold mid level temps in the wake of a nice coastal low gives us about as much help as we could ask for to limit BL issues and allow snow to fall even if surface temps are well above freezing. One can certainly hope but alas it's the 18z ICON at day 5...
 
Tarheel1 said:
It’s trended Southe the last two days! The MA thread is priceless now!
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The gfs has been as steady as it gets , if that’s possible . The euro was further north vs it’s 00z run. It’s all timing . They need a full phase . The 18z GEFS is boom or bust for them . I’m all in since I’ll be up there but I’m sure it will trend just south enough to give me partly cloudy skies and flurries


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The GFS has been scary consistent but does no good if it's wrong. The Euro will be right because in the last few days it has had Arkansas/ Missouri,Tennessee/Kentucky, Virginia/NC and nobody as the bullseye. When it comes to models, they all suck.:)
 
Since Feburnary sucked so hard , might take a Sunday afternoon trip to the N.C. mountains and take advantage of the extra hour of daylight and see some snow!:weenie:
 
Storm5 said:
The gfs has been as steady as it gets , if that’s possible . The euro was further north vs it’s 00z run. It’s all timing . They need a full phase . The 18z GEFS is boom or bust for them . I’m all in since I’ll be up there but I’m sure it will trend just south enough to give me partly cloudy skies and flurries


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The GFS had the LP up in Ky, southern WV last night. Now has it south coming across Northern MS, AL . Ukie track.
 
NCSNOW said:
The GFS had the LP up in Ky, southern WV last night. Now has it south coming across Northern MS, AL . Ukie track.
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The 12z ukmet nuked the MA and the NE and is a great track for them . The gfs track is SE of the ukmet


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GFS has LP over northern Alabama at hour 84. NAM has it over northern Florida at the same time.
 
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whamby said:
I wonder where the current Gfs would have had the march 93 storm... probably would have sent the low to Cuba.
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I remember that the models ... at least whatever the weather channel used ... were seeing that a long way out. seemed like they had that one pegged.
 
GaWx said:
I also distinctly remember this. A very well predicted storm to say the least!
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You ain't kidding. Pegged from 5 days out on media. One of the best forecasting jobs of all time. Kicker is it was a triple phaser. Complex trying to time and pinpoint phased pieces of energy/ jets 24 to 48 hrs out in todays time.
 
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