• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Magnificent March

If Jon and Eric were being misinterpreted on the pattern talk, I think there would be a lot more talk on here, lol.

Honestly I'm not enthused by a possible period of very unseasonably cool weather in March again though. I'm going to be very irritated if my dad's blueberries are lost again and he's said his peaches have flowers already (they have a bug issue though, but that's a different story for another time). I badly want to get back to seasonable but if we see a possible hard freeze I'm legit going to get mad this year.
 
1300m said:
And if that exact same scenario unfolds in mid March the boundary layer would not cool down due to the increased sun angle of March, so I am a bit confused as to why you would use that as an example.
Click to expand...

If the boundary layer is protected by a thick cloud deck (& occasionally capped w/ several kilometers of moderate-deep cb convection) as is often the case in most big storms, the sun angle becomes increasingly less relevant. It's definitely non-negligible but akin to warm ground temperatures its impact is often overstated in winter storms here. I chose this particular example because the depth of the near-surface warm layer was very profound for a major-very major accumulating snowstorm in parts of GA, AL, & MS and our climatology is similar in mid-March and early December. The air temperatures are usually cooler in December but the dynamical forcing mainly from convective precipitation is more intense late in the season esp from mid-February and beyond which offsets the impacts attributable to more intense incident shortwave radiation which leads to little-no net change in the overall amount of snow. The non-linear nature of convective precipitation widens the distribution and increases the ceiling of events if the dynamical cooling is particularly intense which is why you see more intense snow storms per capita in early-mid March vs early December and this is fleshed out in the 125-year record of winter events here in NC.
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
I don't disagree. But there's a lot of talk about potential that I think will translate to a winter storm being deemed likely in some people's minds. I'm already predicting that if the first half of March ends up cold dominated without a significant winter storm in much of the area that there will be plenty of whining about it getting cold with little wintry precip. despite no winter storm being predicted.
Click to expand...

I wouldn’t get caught up in what others think. People have odd ways of interpreting things. I have no doubt some will call bust if the SE doesn’t get snow, but that’s not our problem, that’s their misinterpretation and not understanding the odds and/or having unrealistic expectations.
 
Jon said:
If that gets folks rocks off it’s not really my problem. I was more or less doing a two things:
1. Justifying the pattern in general supports a storm on the eastern seaboard
2. Poking fun at model run-to-run model watchers who continue to slide into my DM’s telling me the runs have been warm (they’ve since piped down) and the fact that, for some reason, people need a fantasy storm on an Op for “proof” a pattern is capable of producing which I think is coming hence my 100 posts an hour comment.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Nice! You were justifying the upcoming pattern with the euro control. And yes it is your problem when you feed into the hearts and minds of winter weenies with fantasy storms (such as using the euro control to prove your point). It certainly does nothing to help keep people’s expectations within normal reason/excitement. I know I’m guilty of doing the same thing at times. I like your posts Jon and to say you don’t understand the level of people’s excitement after posting the euro control from last night is interesting.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
whatalife said:
Nice! You were justifying the upcoming pattern with the euro control. And yes it is your problem when you feed into the hearts and minds of winter weenies with fantasy storms (such as using the euro control to prove your point). It certainly does nothing to help keep people’s expectations within normal reason/excitement. I know I’m guilty of doing the same thing at times. I like your posts Jon and to say you don’t understand the level of people’s excitement after posting the euro control from last night is interesting.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Thanks! You missed my second point.

I don’t see the influx of excitement from my euro control post and it was obviously not a serious post. I did call for wild solutions, which I stand by (see the 18z GFS - that was close). But it’s not like I said NC is going to get 10”+ snow, did I? If I did, someone hacked my account.

Really though, it’s not my problem or responsibility to monitor or keep people’s excitement in check. I’m sure folks can handle themselves. I deal with people misinterpreting my posts on twitter all the time. Conveying a message online is incredibly difficult and it’s not something I want to spend my time worrying about.
 
Last edited:
Jon said:
Thanks! You missed my second point.

I don’t see the influx of excitement from my euro control post and it was obviously not a serious post. I did call for wild solutions, which I stand by (see the 18z GFS - that was close). But it’s not like I said NC is going to get 10”+ snow, did I? If I did, someone hacked my account.

Really though, it’s not my problem or responsibility to monitor or keep people’s excitement in check. I’m sure folks can handle themselves. I deal with people misinterpreting my posts on twitter all the time. Conveying a message online is incredibly difficult and it’s not something I want to spend my time worrying about.
Click to expand...

No. I got your second point and you are absolutely correct in saying it’s not your responsibility in monitoring people’s excitement. You are only responsible for what you post.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
whatalife said:
No. I got your second point and you are absolutely correct in saying it’s not your responsibility in monitoring people’s excitement. You are only responsible for what you post.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I take full responsibility.

Oh geez Ryan Maue just posted the control to 71,000 followers, which dumps feet of snow in NE. I’m off the hook I think.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jon said:
I take full responsibility.

Oh geez Ryan Maue just posted the control to 71,000 followers, which dumps feet of snow in NE. I’m off the hook I think.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...


So do we live in the NE or the SE? Was the control from last night in the NE or the SE that you posted?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
whatalife said:
So do we live in the NE or the SE? Was the control from last night in the NE or the SE that you posted?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

You know the answer. I’m bored with the pointless back and forth. Apparently I hyped the whole forum up with the control. Lmao. Cheers dude.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
From what I have seen from Jon, he is definitely one of the ones to keep it objective. I see no problem in him “hyping” it as he has approached this very objectively and is just a reflection of his “confidence”. He’s not the one to spout the same “hyping” bs every time a single “piece” of evidence points anywhere. As far as I’m concerned, this is the first time I have seen him talk pattern change so strong and objectively. Hell, HM is on it too. Again, no problem in a little bit of “hyping” if it’s surrounded by an objective approach. The whole thing about posting the euro control. His point as I interpreted it is models are picking up a pattern that is more conducive for snow chances. That’s why they will probably start spewing out stuff like this a time progresses.
 
Well. Just as temperatures begin to cooperate at the beginning of March it just looks like a bunch of NW flow events from the 3rd through the 7th...we suck at winter. See you guys next year. I can't wait to forget this winter
 
The Euro & GFS differ slightly on the timing, amplitude, and overall evolution of this feature in the medium range, but the large-scale ingredients may become at least marginally conducive for a widespread threat of severe weather over the Arklatex & Lower MS Valley around day 5. I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC mentions this particular system in future outlooks in the next 1-3 days as long as the models come into better agreement w/ this feature. us_f144 (4).png us_f144 (3).png us_f144 (2).png us_f144 (1).png us_f144.png
us_f144 (5).png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Euro & GFS differ slightly on the timing, amplitude, and overall evolution of this feature in the medium range, but the large-scale ingredients may become at least marginally conducive for a widespread threat of severe weather over the Arklatex & Lower MS Valley around day 5. I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC mentions this particular system in future outlooks in the next 1-3 days as long as the models come into better agreement w/ this feature. View attachment 4170 View attachment 4171 View attachment 4172 View attachment 4173 View attachment 4174
View attachment 4169
Click to expand...

This threat really doesn't scream large outbreak potential barring low-level instability doesn't shoot through the roof somehow and it honestly looks fairly similar to the day 3-4 threat already outlined by the SPC. Granted, areas in the Carolinas and GA might experience a bit more action in terms of precipitation as the retrograding Greenland blocking high squashes the SE US ridge and allows out s/w to come further southeastward before eventually going bonkers underneath the block somewhere in the western Atlantic
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Euro & GFS differ slightly on the timing, amplitude, and overall evolution of this feature in the medium range, but the large-scale ingredients may become at least marginally conducive for a widespread threat of severe weather over the Arklatex & Lower MS Valley around day 5. I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC mentions this particular system in future outlooks in the next 1-3 days as long as the models come into better agreement w/ this feature. View attachment 4170 View attachment 4171 View attachment 4172 View attachment 4173 View attachment 4174
View attachment 4169
Click to expand...
I'm not gonna lie. Although, I'd prefer big snow, the record highs that have been shattered in Atlanta the past few days are slightly exciting to say the least, along with this potential severe weather.
 
Jon said:
The excitement in this thread is out of control apparently. Missed on me as well.

I’ll leave this here, again, because people don’t get it.

1f1e12427b244f49fea32bc1cd8b0b07.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I hear you brother. But it’s like telling your kid he gets to Carowinds for his birthday like last year, but when he gets there, you don’t let him ride any rides and all he gets is a plate of frog legs for lunch.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top