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Pattern Magnificent March

Clayton said:
I'm not gonna lie. Although, I'd prefer big snow, the record highs that have been shattered in Atlanta the past few days are slightly exciting to say the least, along with this potential severe weather.
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Yeah the record highs going up in flames have been fun to watch here in the Carolinas. I wouldn't get too excited yet about anything more than some general thunder or marginally severe storms in your neck of the woods in this current pattern and bgd climatology. If anyone is going to see any substantial, widespread severe weather at this time of the year, it's most often going to be Dixie Alley.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Euro & GFS differ slightly on the timing, amplitude, and overall evolution of this feature in the medium range, but the large-scale ingredients may become at least marginally conducive for a widespread threat of severe weather over the Arklatex & Lower MS Valley around day 5. I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC mentions this particular system in future outlooks in the next 1-3 days as long as the models come into better agreement w/ this feature. View attachment 4170 View attachment 4171 View attachment 4172 View attachment 4173 View attachment 4174
View attachment 4169
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Right on cue, the SPC throws out a day 6 risk for the Arklatex region.Probably time to start another thread.
day6prob.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the record highs going up in flames have been fun to watch here in the Carolinas. I wouldn't get too excited yet about anything more than some general thunder or marginally severe storms in your neck of the woods in this current pattern and bgd climatology. If anyone is going to see any substantial, widespread severe weather at this time of the year, it's most often going to be Dixie Alley.
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Oh, that's fine with me. But I gotta admit, these record highs are kinda fun. Atlanta smashed it's record of 74 yesterday by 5 degrees at 79! The day before the record was shattered at 7+ when the previous record was 75. Crazy to have two record warm February's in a row in Atlanta since last year. I'm sure winter will makes it's return eventually to the South in years to come though. This is just the way weather is and we have to accept it bro.
 
Today's NCEP GEFS NAO forecast continues to have it dipping to near -2 on 3/1/18, a strong -NAO:

IMG_2569.GIF
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Euro & GFS differ slightly on the timing, amplitude, and overall evolution of this feature in the medium range, but the large-scale ingredients may become at least marginally conducive for a widespread threat of severe weather over the Arklatex & Lower MS Valley around day 5. I wouldn't be surprised if the SPC mentions this particular system in future outlooks in the next 1-3 days as long as the models come into better agreement w/ this feature. View attachment 4170 View attachment 4171 View attachment 4172 View attachment 4173 View attachment 4174
View attachment 4169
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Yay! Severe!
 
EastAtlwx said:
From what I have seen from Jon, he is definitely one of the ones to keep it objective. I see no problem in him “hyping” it as he has approached this very objectively and is just a reflection of his “confidence”. He’s not the one to spout the same “hyping” bs every time a single “piece” of evidence points anywhere. As far as I’m concerned, this is the first time I have seen him talk pattern change so strong and objectively. Hell, HM is on it too. Again, no problem in a little bit of “hyping” if it’s surrounded by an objective approach. The whole thing about posting the euro control. His point as I interpreted it is models are picking up a pattern that is more conducive for snow chances. That’s why they will probably start spewing out stuff like this a time progresses.
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Agreed.

I think we need to define hyping. If what Jon is considered hyping and we are now worried about people getting over excited over a clown run, then we need to ban half the forum for the travesty that occurred in the past few months when we had threads being created over a coating of freezing drizzle a week in advance.

What is next? When can I expect the line about people being sick wackos for being excited about supercells and tornadoes.

OK my rant is finished.
 
Arcc said:
Agreed.

I think we need to define hyping. If what Jon is considered hyping and we are now worried about people getting over excited over a clown run, then we need to ban half the forum for the travesty that occurred in the past few months when we had threads being created over a coating of freezing drizzle a week in advance.

What is next? When can I expect the line about people being sick wackos for being excited about supercells and tornadoes.

OK my rant is finished.
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To be clear. I no problem with someone hyping an up coming pattern. If I did I would have deleted Jon’s post. My issue comes when someone says they don’t understand the excitement or have missed the reason for the excitement after they themselves have posted a clown map. Clown maps are fun to look at and do show the possibilities of what could lay ahead. However, they also create higher expectations and excitement for what is coming that may or may not happen. Many on this forum understand that and their are some on here that don’t understand these facts.

I value greatly the information that Jon, Webber, 1300m, and others post on this forum. This was just an issue I had last night and I take full responsibility for those posts that I made last night. Some liked the posts and some didn’t. I hope everyone enjoys the upcoming day of model runs.


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I don't think anyone actually takes a LR Control run seriously and if they do they need to get their head checked. We all know how this will most likely turn out anyway and that is with us getting a cold rain and the NE getting plastered as usual. This is what we should expect in the middle of January and even more so in March.

Edit: I've learned a lot while on the forum and I really appreciate what Webberweather53, Jon, 1300M, deltadog03, and other knowledgeable folks on here bring to the table. Kudos to the Mods for a great job also.
 
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Man some guys need to lighten up a bit, it's only weather folks and there is nothing we can do to change it nor even forecast it accurately past 3-5 days. I enjoy posts from knowledgeable people here (professional mets or not) and only few I don't like to read, but I won't name them here :)
 
Jon said:
Hard freeze for the SE incoming....RIP flowered trees


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Yeah, and if the GFS has it it's way:
gfs_T2m_seus_45.png
 
Phil will be thrilled to know that the 11-15 day 12Z GFS has him with about the coldest anomaly in the SE US with 13 colder than normal. Lots of 30s lows and with G'ville's abilities to radiate, 1-2 sub 32s would be likely imo. Beautiful chilly dry weather. I wish I were there then to walk at Vets Memorial Park!

**Corrected
 
Although it often takes a while for massive blocks and their concomitant low PV to erode & stratospheric forcing appears favorable, long-term interrannual variability, the continued persistence of an Aleutian ridge and tropical forcing progressing into the Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent favor a faster demise of the NAO down the road in the 2nd half of March, of course by then winter will likely be just about over (if it isn't already) in the southern tier of the US.
 
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