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Pattern Magnificent March

yeah, we had 12+ inches at the end of the 5 day forecast.. everyone thought the weathermen had gone insane.
 
91C67DBC-0F14-48B7-82FC-99AD37872274.png This is for a week after Monday’s potential, hmmmm..... 3/1960 redux
 
Some 6” per hour rates yesterday in CT, PA , with the Nor’easter! Now that’s a true death band! More snow in an hour than I’ve seen in 3 winters! :(
 
Euro much drier. anyone who sees flakes would not see rates enough to amount to anything I think. Solutions still pretty far apart though. Need a bomb this time of year. And a little button hook move would be cool too, ...
 
Looks like the Raleigh folks have one to track





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A friend in Marion, NC just SE of the blue ridge has told me it's snowing there some snow showers managed to make it over the Appalachians and are creeping up on the Charlotte metro. Not sure if any of the returns in southern Randolph county & northern Montgomery county are reaching the ground, it's probably virga but they've been growing ever more impressive the last 30-45 minutes or so. The bottom of the 0.5 degree elevation angle beam is about 4000 feet off the ground so it's probably snowing down to that level and it wouldn't surprise me if some flurries are reaching the ground in the Uwharries.

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Jon said:
Looks like the Raleigh folks have one to track





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And just like that the 6Z GFS says the same. I wouldn't be on anything, but it could bring snow to TN if it does NC. Too bad it'll be just too warm down here, but that's what we get for March.
 
Nomanslandva said:
Euro much drier. anyone who sees flakes would not see rates enough to amount to anything I think. Solutions still pretty far apart though. Need a bomb this time of year. And a little button hook move would be cool too, ...
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Yep all kinds of BL issues. Token flakes are better than nothing this time of year . Like you said , better pray for good rates if you’re expecting anything out of this system . A phased bomb obviously changes things but that seems less likely at this point and the southern stream wave just doesn’t want to slow down enough


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As depicted in this 12z GSO sounding, any moisture starved virga/light snow showers forming around 750-800 hPa that manage to make it over the mountains will have to contend w/ dry air in the lowest few thousand feet and low-level CAA. The modest cyclonic vorticity advection at the base of this upper level trough over the lower Great Lakes seems to be providing the forcing for ascent here. I can see this low-level dry layer being overcome in a few spots if the virga is heavy and persistent enough.

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mrdaddyman said:
12Z UKMET:

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00Z UKMET:


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What I wonder are the temp profiles. I'm sure that looking at that, there isn't much cold wrapping into the system. The models seem to say that the further south it goes, the less phasing that happens. Given that, I would only expect a few backside flurries or snow showers on the northern fringe per the 0Z solution.
 
ForsythSnow said:
What I wonder are the temp profiles. I'm sure that looking at that, there isn't much cold wrapping into the system. The models seem to say that the further south it goes, the less phasing that happens. Given that, I would only expect a few backside flurries or snow showers on the northern fringe per the 0Z solution.
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It’ll make its own cold air, it’s origins are from Canada!
 
Saw 6z Gefs on amx. Very nice trend/uptick, espeacilly Northern/Western NC and Southern VA. Starting to shade or shadow down into SC as well.
 
Verbatim the 12z GFS would probably be snowing even over RDU, the unsaturated adiabatic mixed layer in the lowest 100mb is an artifact and failed to materialize in the two most recent storms in the NE US.
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Oh man. 850’s look solid on the wraparound but let’s get that low moving over the Florida Panhandle..if possible :(
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Yeah, it's not a good track for points SE of RDU. Seems to be the case 99% of the time.:(
 
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Would be nice if there was a high anywhere east of the Rockies and south of the Hudson Bay. Granted there was recently a ton of snow from Wilmington, DE & points NE, I found a case on March 7-8 1947 w/ a similar snow map to what the 12z NAM showed and there was at least a nice 1036 high on the western shore of the Hudson Bay, we have a low pressure area there in this instance.

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Another more applicable case later that month on the 27th-28th at least had a 1027 high over the Arklatex but as the NAM and most other NWP is depicting we really don't have a nice cold high in the right spot and there's a decent ridge over the West Coast (arguably the one associated w/ the upcoming system looks stronger) it's one of the few examples I can find in the last 125 years that didn't have a "nice" surface high to our north to continuously resupply cold air, however a few winter storms had already struck earlier in the month so it was already blatantly obvious that March 1947 was capable of spitting out more winter storms. Even still, if you account for bgd warming of the climate and the fact that this storm occurred 2-2.5 weeks later in March, I think something like this is legitimately possible if everything goes our way. In spite of the various setbacks that had to be overcome, this storm on March 27-28 1947 managed to produce some decent accumulating snow in climatologically favored areas of NC from the Triangle and points NWward.
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Webberweather53 said:
Would be nice if there was a high anywhere east of the Rockies and south of the Hudson Bay. Granted there was recently a ton of snow from Wilmington, DE & points NE, I found a case on March 7-8 1947 w/ a similar snow map to what the 12z NAM showed and there was at least a nice 1036 high on the western shore of the Hudson Bay, we have a low pressure area there in this instance.

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Another more applicable case later that month on the 27th-28th at least had a 1027 high over the Arklatex but as the NAM and most other NWP is depicting we really don't have a nice cold high in the right spot and there's a decent ridge over the West Coast (arguably the one associated w/ the upcoming system looks stronger) it's one of the few examples I can find in the last 125 years that didn't have a "nice" surface high to our north to continuously resupply cold air, however a few winter storms had already struck earlier in the month so it was already blatantly obvious that March 1947 was capable of spitting out more winter storms. Even still, if you account for bgd warming of the climate and the fact that this storm occurred 2-2.5 weeks later in March, I think something like this is legitimately possible if everything goes our way. In spite of the various setbacks that had to be overcome, this storm on March 27-28 1947 managed to produce some decent accumulating snow in climatologically favored areas of NC from the Triangle and points NWward.
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Oth, the GFS seems to be a bit more enthused in a general sense even if the precipitation type output doesn't flesh this out w/ a decent cold high over the Dakotas extending to the Great Lakes
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Starting to see more intense returns over north-central Alamance and Orange counties, probably some snow TV incoming for areas near or just north of the Triangle if those rain/snow showers can hold together
 
Let me go ahead and congratulate all the I-40 N peeps on your obligatory and yearly March snow. I will enjoy my good rich soaking of yearly brutally cold March rain.
 
This ought to sound familiar to many of you (esp Larry), once again the ECMWF is living in denial that the MJO is actually capable of propagating into the Maritime Continent. The day 2 verification is already well outside the spread of the Euro monthly forecast at day 2, this is absolutely embarrassing.

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Someone said the UK had the low tracking across the FL panhandle? If so, money
 
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