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Pattern Magnificent March

A rule of thumb I've been using successfully with the Canadian is to add anywhere between 5-8F/C for 2m temperatures on it's coldest guidance.
 
The 12Z GFS has to be smoking something. Such a weird feature.
gfs_T850_seus_40.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
The 12Z GFS has to be smoking something. Such a weird feature.
gfs_T850_seus_40.png
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What's so weird about cold air advection in the wake of a massive low pressure system bombing out over the western Atlantic underneath the Greenland Blocking high? Specifics/details will vary but something along these lines isn't that unrealistic given the pattern. Apparently every model is smoking something because a solution like that is being captured in nearly every piece of NWP in that frame give or take a few days.
 
Yeah, a very strong, wrapped up low will drag all that air in on the back end. The 850 map looks fine per GFS, if the setup were to occur with the system.
 
Shawn said:
Yeah, a very strong, wrapped up low will drag all that air in on the back end. The 850 map looks fine per GFS, if the setup were to occur with the system.
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That specific solution, the intensity and precise placement of the low will vary considerably but something like that is virtually probable at some point in some way, shape, or form in a pattern like this.
 
Webberweather53 said:
That specific solution, the intensity and precise placement of the low will vary considerably but something like that is virtually probable at some point in some way, shape, or form in a pattern like this.
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Its likely too deep/south into Florida like that, but who knows. Definitely not impossible.
 
Shawn said:
Its likely too deep/south into Florida like that, but who knows. Definitely not impossible.
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We don't really know that or are capable of assigning precise probabilities to a specific solution like this until we're at least in the medium range. It's not to be ignored, discounted, or deemed near impossible when you have a massive blocking high over Greenland and Eastern Canada.
 
It’s starting to look more and more likely that we will have a record breaking heat wave in February followed by a cold start to March for the 2nd year in a row. Snow or no snow I’ll be more then happy with just cooler temps.
 
Folks likely won't be thrilled about the 12Z EPS for early March as it is warmer than the prior run.
 
It will be fascinating to watch the possible evolution of the blocking and what could potentially happen, not saying March of '62 is gonna happen but if it did the ramifications up and down the East Coast will be monumental.

Gotta love the weather and all the possibilities it brings.
 
GaWx said:
Folks likely won't be thrilled about the 12Z EPS for early March as it is warmer than the prior run.
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I only care about March 6-10 lol....DCA north gets the first chance, although I wouldn’t be surprised if a clipper like system influences NC around 3/3 if it’s cold enough at 850


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GaWx said:
Folks likely won't be thrilled about the 12Z EPS for early March as it is warmer than the prior run.
Click to expand...

The run to run variability is too much to allow a single run to thrill or disappoint. We know it’s getting colder that much is a safe bet.


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The 18z GFS actually looks pretty cool at the end of its run for the SE.
 
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