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Pattern Magnificent March

Silly NAM....
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I do love a purdy clown map....
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Verbatim the 12z GFS would probably be snowing even over RDU, the unsaturated adiabatic mixed layer in the lowest 100mb is an artifact and failed to materialize in the two most recent storms in the NE US.
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Oh man. 850’s look solid on the wraparound but let’s get that low moving over the Florida Panhandle..if possible :(
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Yeah, it's not a good track for points SE of RDU. Seems to be the case 99% of the time.:(
 
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Would be nice if there was a high anywhere east of the Rockies and south of the Hudson Bay. Granted there was recently a ton of snow from Wilmington, DE & points NE, I found a case on March 7-8 1947 w/ a similar snow map to what the 12z NAM showed and there was at least a nice 1036 high on the western shore of the Hudson Bay, we have a low pressure area there in this instance.

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March 7-8 1947 NC Snowmap.png


Another more applicable case later that month on the 27th-28th at least had a 1027 high over the Arklatex but as the NAM and most other NWP is depicting we really don't have a nice cold high in the right spot and there's a decent ridge over the West Coast (arguably the one associated w/ the upcoming system looks stronger) it's one of the few examples I can find in the last 125 years that didn't have a "nice" surface high to our north to continuously resupply cold air, however a few winter storms had already struck earlier in the month so it was already blatantly obvious that March 1947 was capable of spitting out more winter storms. Even still, if you account for bgd warming of the climate and the fact that this storm occurred 2-2.5 weeks later in March, I think something like this is legitimately possible if everything goes our way. In spite of the various setbacks that had to be overcome, this storm on March 27-28 1947 managed to produce some decent accumulating snow in climatologically favored areas of NC from the Triangle and points NWward.
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March 27-28 1947 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Would be nice if there was a high anywhere east of the Rockies and south of the Hudson Bay. Granted there was recently a ton of snow from Wilmington, DE & points NE, I found a case on March 7-8 1947 w/ a similar snow map to what the 12z NAM showed and there was at least a nice 1036 high on the western shore of the Hudson Bay, we have a low pressure area there in this instance.

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Another more applicable case later that month on the 27th-28th at least had a 1027 high over the Arklatex but as the NAM and most other NWP is depicting we really don't have a nice cold high in the right spot and there's a decent ridge over the West Coast (arguably the one associated w/ the upcoming system looks stronger) it's one of the few examples I can find in the last 125 years that didn't have a "nice" surface high to our north to continuously resupply cold air, however a few winter storms had already struck earlier in the month so it was already blatantly obvious that March 1947 was capable of spitting out more winter storms. Even still, if you account for bgd warming of the climate and the fact that this storm occurred 2-2.5 weeks later in March, I think something like this is legitimately possible if everything goes our way. In spite of the various setbacks that had to be overcome, this storm on March 27-28 1947 managed to produce some decent accumulating snow in climatologically favored areas of NC from the Triangle and points NWward.
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Oth, the GFS seems to be a bit more enthused in a general sense even if the precipitation type output doesn't flesh this out w/ a decent cold high over the Dakotas extending to the Great Lakes
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Starting to see more intense returns over north-central Alamance and Orange counties, probably some snow TV incoming for areas near or just north of the Triangle if those rain/snow showers can hold together
 
Let me go ahead and congratulate all the I-40 N peeps on your obligatory and yearly March snow. I will enjoy my good rich soaking of yearly brutally cold March rain.
 
This ought to sound familiar to many of you (esp Larry), once again the ECMWF is living in denial that the MJO is actually capable of propagating into the Maritime Continent. The day 2 verification is already well outside the spread of the Euro monthly forecast at day 2, this is absolutely embarrassing.

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Someone said the UK had the low tracking across the FL panhandle? If so, money
 
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