Ron Burgundy
Member
It’s almost as if the models had the storm in the long range, lost it in the mid range and are picking it back up again in the short range. If only someone had informed us of this possibility! ?
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
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LovingGulfLows
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Things are trending better for the western parts of the South(and naturally better for us downstream as well). I think as long as the TPV moves east, they'll definitely get something wintry. I already thought days ago, they're in a much better spot than GA/Carolinas are when it comes to waves diving under the ridge. I think the thing we all wanted to see the most was a PV in southeastern Canada or over the great lakes instead of western Canada and that is happening.
Overall, even though it isn't showing any snow or sleet or ice over my area yet, I'm pleased with what I'm seeing.
Look out. Coastal, engage.
Did we simply just get played again into thinking we were going to get warm ?? I took the bait too ?? I should have known that our storms .. our big storms.. usually get lost in long range-medium range and get found again short- medium range .. I guess we also have had very unfortunate forecast conditions and variables such as that .. but wow this is turning into the King Kong trends
Feb 16’ish looking very interesting for CAD
Storm5
Member
Eastern area potential would be after the front pushes through. Western areas as the initial Arctic front stalls west of the mountains. Low forming and riding the boundary as it continues to move eastward.
I think so but we’ll see.
Jessy89
Member
Isn’t that similar to what happen this past Saturday?
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NWMSGuy
Member
GFS advertising a quarter inch of ice for my location while the Canadian is advertising over half an inch. Wondering when or if Memphis will pull the trigger before long for advisories, etc.
I think this might be a little different. This airmass (as modeled at 12z) puts a lot more in play.
East of the mountains is going to have a hard time scoring with this look. That's a lot of cold rain for us. Fortunately, this is the Canadian and it is still trying to figure out where the TPV is going.
For areas east for the mountains were gonna have to time a vortex exiting off under the -NAO block then set up cold air damming, it isn’t a snow setup tbh but ice/sleet
Storm5
Member
I get that I was talking about the everything has to be perfect comment for areas west of the apps
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LovingGulfLows
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It's going to be heartbreaking if this arctic boundary stalls right along the apps. I really really hope it doesn't or once again, I'll be on the outside looking in.
BelmontWX79
Member
TPV swinging through the Great Lakes by the end of the UKMET run. Big Improvement! ?
If that happens, where the Arctic boundary never clears the SE coast, it might be time to call it quits for people east of Appalachians. I hope the GFS and the GFES are wrong the SE ridge being that much of factor past the 5-6 day range and more cold air is able to bleed east of the Mountains.