Thunderstorms for me? for the win? LOL
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
That Vort tail that’s left behind over the lakes won’t cut it, that’s ruins the cold air damming setup and moves it in late 
packfan98
Moderator
Monster Winter Storm for TX, LA, AR, MS, Western TN. Low looks to cut through East TN on this run of the GFS. Rain for areas east of Mountains.
It is amazing how we have trended with this system. Weak high in NE and we (GA and Carolinas) are going to waste a good show with the TPV. (unless ICON is right as of now)
Jessy89
Member
Cold rain east of the mountains. The trends for cold rain was there yesterday. It’s doubling down today
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I think the Gfs is in its own little wonder land .. even the v16 looks like it’s coming in way colder
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,376
- Reaction score
- 3,613
What's gonna suck is that it's probably going to be years before we get another arctic outbreak like this and then we have to hope it either comes in January or we're in an El Nino pattern where the subtropical ridge doesn't screw us.
Lol if we completely got rid of confluence that’s a very very menacing severe weather look 
Snownut
Member
NCHighCountryWX
Member
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2016
- Messages
- 532
- Reaction score
- 1,466
WPC guidance to local offices....
V16 is much colder then the GFS lol 
Jessy89
Member
iGRXY
Member
GFS is on it's own.
V16 ?
packfan98
Moderator
PARSONBROWN
Member
IMO this has major major potential. If models underestimate the shallow cold air....this could get nasty for N. AL
iGRXY
Member
GFS V16 has the ice storm. One thing to note is even the V16 doesn't have the ability to see just how cold the wedge likely is and it still gets 1/2" of ice around here.
CAD CAD CAD cmon we know the globals dont see it well ... so why do we doubt it’s power now .. I’ll say it till the cows come home .. CAD will over come model predictions
Remember when we had 1060 mb HPs dropping in on the EPS mean, too? Oops!
BelmontWX79
Member
The difference between the old and future GFS is laughable!!! 144hrs
Old
V16
Old
V16
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,376
- Reaction score
- 3,613
GFS not very far away from heavy snow in Birmingham at hour 198 ? .
iGRXY
Member
Canadian looks much better with the TPV at 96. It's stronger.
Jessy89
Member
Almost seems like we are wasting a good pattern
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Montanasnow30
Member
Do you think the folks in central Alabama around the I20 corridor have any chance at something besides a cold rain?
It’s not a good pattern East of the mountains. Just some CAD
LovingGulfLows
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 1,376
- Reaction score
- 3,613
If the GFS's depiction of the upper levels is close to right with the big southern system at hour 192. certainly if the SE ridge can relax some...then you would move everything to the east and get more colder air there.
What’s funny is the Gfs has an almost identical storm right behind this one.. wow we’re getting busy ... something tells me if the first one throws down a blanket of ice the second one will either follow it’s tracks or be colder
Montanasnow30
Member
So basically from the looks of the 12z gfs it looks like the same folks who is about to get a winter storm looks to get another one for the same areas again around the 18 and 19 I’m not buying that
Stormlover
Member
man, I was in the wrong thread ..what a storm in a week 
This stuff hanging over the lakes isn’t it (or is it if you don’t want ice) 
This is closer for N AL.
Montanasnow30
Member
Man I would hate to be in Birmingham on the edge of that if it was to verify but we know anything is possible
Still the Canadian came in colder because it didn’t drop a piece of energy into the trough out west like last run 
Ron Burgundy
Member
So, 15 F in NW AL and 55 F in NE AL. Sounds reasonable.
iGRXY
Member
Canadian was very close in the CAD regions. Still got major ICE down to the I40 corridor.
Ew 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Plenty of time for the Piedmont to trend towards sleet over freezing rain. Admittedly a little concerned down here towards FKAY with that look on the globals
Damn sucks that snow is unlikely which such a deep CAD
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah except perhaps at the very onset for some when evaporative cooling can work some magic and keep more of the hydrometeors frozen