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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Yup. It's not all about the CADs. TX/LA/MS and Alabama are in a good setup this time.

Remember we ALL thought we were sitting good a few days ago. All I am saying is with all these moving pieces we should probably temper our expectations a bit until we are within 3 days or so of an actual storm. We are going to see a lot of fluctuation these next few days.
 
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If that happens, where the Arctic boundary never clears the SE coast, it might be time to call it quits for people east of Appalachians. I hope the GFS and the GFES are wrong the SE ridge being that much of factor past the 5-6 day range and more cold air is able to bleed east of the Mountains.
The overall theme this winter is that closer we get in the time period the SER comes more muted. I hope the moves pick up on this very soon! Let's push this front to the coast!
 
Remember we ALL thought we were sitting good a few days ago. All I am saying is with all these moving pieces we should probably temper all expectations a bit until we are within 3 days or so of an actual storm. We are going to see a lot of fluctuation these next few days.
Oh yeah, I totally understand. I hope we all score
 
Round 2 coming in better
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Member 20 isn’t much different from yesterday. Very wild and impressive seeing that member show out


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TPV swinging through the Great Lakes by the end of the UKMET run. Big Improvement! ?
View attachment 72706


Wow!? I actually like the UKMET progression of the PV more than the GFS and the GEFS progression of the PV .Even people east of the Appalachians might extremely cold(which would increase the chance of us of not having to relay on CAD) if the UKMET is correct.
 
Now East of the apps, that’s a good look ?
Want a parent S/W more south tho View attachment 72708View attachment 72709

Good trends.......us east of the mts folks will be fine, I am still 100% on board with my at least 6" or more call for MBY next week.....this is gonna happen, going to be a epic period with 2-4 waves for a lot of the South...could be one of those rare snow on snow events....

Need the Euro to continue the hot streak......
 
If the GFS didn't squash the TPV on the north side of the lakes and kept pushing south or SE, then east of the mtns and south (GA) would get in on the fun as well.
Appreciate you chasing/chiming In. I know its always if and buts where cherry an nuts...
But if we can get just a couple more favorable wiggles to get the TPV in perfect spot, a lot of folks really could score multiple times over a 10 day stretch. So close here.
 
GFS advertising a quarter inch of ice for my location while the Canadian is advertising over half an inch. Wondering when or if Memphis will pull the trigger before long for advisories, etc.
NWMS Guy, I as well live in Senatobia, I don’t think Memphis will do anything until they see the Euro come on board, which could very well be the case at the 12z run, I tend to think Memphis will play this on the conservative side because of the model disagreement.
 
I'll be visiting family in Jackson MS Friday afternoon, leaving before the ice and snow comes. I guess I should be ok until Saturday evening?
 
Not with this setup


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I'd rather be living in Hattiesburg than Athens Ga. for this period. That arctic front and its low-level cold air at least for a time is going to get nearly stalled out west of the mountains with multiple opportunities from NW Ga through Texas for some seriously impactful winter weather.

I wouldn't rule out Lake Ponchatrain lake effect given this level of cold LOL.
 
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