mydoortotheworld
Member
UKMET (as I've come to know it) usually hints at what the EURO may show...
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
I still believe that the SER is over done and will translate this in future runs. That is why I think UKMET did not show a cutter. Maybe is starting to recognize it. Who knows!
I'm very shocked the UKMET showed this sort of solution. I was expecting that the Midlands of SC would get another cold rain event. Assuming the UKMET doesn't completely change within the next 12-24,I probably have to rethink about this being a pure rain event for the Augusta/Aiken/Columbia area.
Snownut
Member
Yeah and hopefully more sleet than ZR!Well, the UKMET put SC and GA back into play. I definitely wasn't expecting that. Here's the "snowfall" map, but most of this would be ip/fzrn:
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D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Do we still have -nao? Doesn't that tend to push back the SE ridge?
Stormsfury
Member
Well today, more surprises as usual.. the GFS current currently stands alone on an island with cutting...
I'll sum it up in one meme I made..
I'll sum it up in one meme I made..
PARSONBROWN
Member
Jason Simpson.........
Going to go out a limb here and call for no significant snow or ice in Alabama through the first part of next week. There is a window for a little freezing rain or sleet late Friday/early Saturday, but that's it - and even that is marginal and looks low-to-no impact right now.
I've read several comments from folks who hear we're getting snow or we're getting ice from somewhere...it's not impossible, but it is not a realistic scenario as I see it this Wednesday morning, February 10th.
Might I change my mind? Maybe. Probably not, though. Sometimes there are slam dunk, obvious threats on the horizon. Nothing that the medium range forecast guidance shows me is obvious. The pattern supports colder-than-average weather. It supports some wet weather. As to whether those will time out just right to produce a winter storm for Alabama, it's not perfectly clear.
So, to recap:
Jason doesn't expect the weather to be all that bad Friday night/Saturday. A little ice/sleet? Possible. Travel problems? Unlikely.
Jason also calls bull on most everything the GFS model has
been showing for Alabama and Southern Tennessee for the weekend/early next week.
Jason says he does not expect the modeling that shows a major winter weather event or temperatures in the single digits to be correct. A much more legitimate solution is similar to the cold we've already had this winter: 20s at night, 30s/40s by day.
Jason also thinks we probably have a better shot at thunderstorms with next week's system than an ice or snow storm.
Going to go out a limb here and call for no significant snow or ice in Alabama through the first part of next week. There is a window for a little freezing rain or sleet late Friday/early Saturday, but that's it - and even that is marginal and looks low-to-no impact right now.
I've read several comments from folks who hear we're getting snow or we're getting ice from somewhere...it's not impossible, but it is not a realistic scenario as I see it this Wednesday morning, February 10th.
Might I change my mind? Maybe. Probably not, though. Sometimes there are slam dunk, obvious threats on the horizon. Nothing that the medium range forecast guidance shows me is obvious. The pattern supports colder-than-average weather. It supports some wet weather. As to whether those will time out just right to produce a winter storm for Alabama, it's not perfectly clear.
So, to recap:
Jason doesn't expect the weather to be all that bad Friday night/Saturday. A little ice/sleet? Possible. Travel problems? Unlikely.
Jason also calls bull on most everything the GFS model has
been showing for Alabama and Southern Tennessee for the weekend/early next week.
Jason says he does not expect the modeling that shows a major winter weather event or temperatures in the single digits to be correct. A much more legitimate solution is similar to the cold we've already had this winter: 20s at night, 30s/40s by day.
Jason also thinks we probably have a better shot at thunderstorms with next week's system than an ice or snow storm.
FamouslyHot
Member
This has potential to be a STRONG Cad event. 1040+ mb high with snowpack to the north is how you get CAD that supports wintry wx down into the midlands. Even if it cuts CAE has potential to see some onset ice. If it doesn't cut then the whole Midlands could be in store for something larger.
PARSONBROWN
Member
He seems angry
I would say the Icon have been very very consistent and now Ukmet and V16 Gfs just moved toward its idea. Wow the effect of the snow cover further north.
Yes we do from my understanding.
Brent
Member
Yeah this could make up for 5 years of nothing in one swoop the way it's looking
I've been trying not to get into the hype but it's becoming impossible lol
Avalanche
Member
I don't blame him. One model run doesn't make a forecast.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I think it'd be pretty fitting if as it turned out, we end up flip flopping from mainly having the GFS (although the Euro had also said yes a couple times), to the Euro/UKMET/ICON.
Stormlover
Member
This was before the 12Z runs. Have no clue why he's being like that. The potential is huge. He's going against the NWS too.
SnowNiner
Member
Nah, I'm sure the EURO will come in with another cutter and snap the last grasp of hope we had. I honestly couldn't care less what the Icon or Canadian show. It's UKMET, EPS, EURO, GEFS in that order for me. You're right though I agree, I'm very surprised the UKMET trended strong cold there.
PARSONBROWN
Member
Yes he is. Never seen him like that before
FamouslyHot
Member
It is slightly negative and looks to hang around slightly neg/neutral for the near future.
I expect the EURO will look a lot like the UKMET
Ukmet shows how this could be super nasty for many areas. However, I expect it, and all the models to flop around until maybe this weekend.
I was actually about to give up but after the UKMET trended to the ICON, I started to think the ICON is maybe on to something. Interesting to see what the Euro shows.
SnowNiner
Member
This may be a separate discussion in the flaming dumpster fire February thread. But the NAO has really been very weak most of the winter. One standard deviation? Perhaps that's why it's really hasn't done much for us this year other than keep us cool. No solid, consistent 50/50 low, only good Atlantic ridging.
Snownut
Member
If that ukmet verifies, then the CAD areas are in trouble. That would cause lots of ice
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Same here.
FamouslyHot
Member
I'd say it's done some good keeping us cool rather than baking in a SE ridge, but it hasn't helped to deliver strong cold due to the Pacific. Now for this storm the NAO I would say is a non-issue. The location of the TPV is what will be the main driver of this event.
Jessy89
Member
Where was the track of the low on the ukmet? If we can get it off the coast we could get mostly sleet or even snow. But seems unlikely because it’s probably gonna cut
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MichaelJ
Member
Here are the NAO charts from Weatherbell
I agree... any snow with this type of set up would come from an initial band due to WAA. Which could be intense, but also wouldn’t be picked until inside the very short term
Tarheelwx
Member
While I can only see the Pivotal Freebies, it would appear the UKMET is very, very close to the Canadian except for a much quicker transfer to the coast and therefore pulling deeper cold air in east of the mountains. This is very close to my thinking, but a bit further south.
TW
TW
lj0109
Member
12Z Icon once again holds serve with a legit ZR threat deep into the Carolinas and Georgia. Interesting to see the UKMet showing this signal as well. As @deltadog03 @Stormsfury @Webberweather53 and others have stated, the waffling will most definitely continue the next few days but its tough to ignore the potential significant CAD signal showing this far out. Thanks to all for the continued great discussion.
Obviously, this is a lot of ice, but look at the GEFS chart for Memphis. DAMN
ATLwxfan
Member
Mellish says he would not trust the models at all until 72 hours. They are not able to interpret our current weather patterns.
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What did the GEFS members show?
Already some differences right off the bat 
The good DOC is up...let's see what the song choice will be.
Here comes the differences
It appears the 12Z Euro starts with the PV already east of the 0Z run with a slightly stronger Northwestern Ridge. The Euro can't even the very short range pattern right. So it's safe that we may should/should've tossed the 0Z Euro being that it probably was a fluke.