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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

PV for the Euro 12Z today for the the 13th is east of where it was this time yesterday. CAD might be stronger on Euro compared to yesterday

Edit: See a bit more SE ridging on this run,, so I'm not sure if how much we will improve on the Euro 12Z today compared to yesterday

ecmwf_z500a_us_5.pngecmwf_z500a_us_4.png
 
PARSONBROWN said:
Jason Simpson.........

Going to go out a limb here and call for no significant snow or ice in Alabama through the first part of next week. There is a window for a little freezing rain or sleet late Friday/early Saturday, but that's it - and even that is marginal and looks low-to-no impact right now.

I've read several comments from folks who hear we're getting snow or we're getting ice from somewhere...it's not impossible, but it is not a realistic scenario as I see it this Wednesday morning, February 10th.

Might I change my mind? Maybe. Probably not, though. Sometimes there are slam dunk, obvious threats on the horizon. Nothing that the medium range forecast guidance shows me is obvious. The pattern supports colder-than-average weather. It supports some wet weather. As to whether those will time out just right to produce a winter storm for Alabama, it's not perfectly clear.

So, to recap:

Jason doesn't expect the weather to be all that bad Friday night/Saturday. A little ice/sleet? Possible. Travel problems? Unlikely.

Jason also calls bull on most everything the GFS model has
been showing for Alabama and Southern Tennessee for the weekend/early next week.

Jason says he does not expect the modeling that shows a major winter weather event or temperatures in the single digits to be correct. A much more legitimate solution is similar to the cold we've already had this winter: 20s at night, 30s/40s by day.

Jason also thinks we probably have a better shot at thunderstorms with next week's system than an ice or snow storm.
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He's almost certainly correct. Lets see some model predictions inside of 48 hours and there will be a reason to get excited.
 
Given what we're seeing out of the globals already & how badly they've underestimated this shallow, cold air mass in the southern plains, I'd give a small nod to sleet over freezing rain in the NC piedmont for the moment, esp west of Raleigh-Durham in places like Charlotte & Greensboro. Oth, it's honestly still too early to be confident in that but that's my current gut feeling based on what I'm seeing evolve here. I'm definitely not liking where I currently stand here in Fayetteville though.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Given what we're seeing out of the globals already & how badly they've underestimated this shallow, cold air mass in the southern plains, I'd give a small nod to sleet over freezing rain in the NC piedmont for the moment, esp west of Raleigh-Durham in places like Charlotte & Greensboro. Oth, it's honestly still too early to be confident in that but that's my current gut feeling based on what I'm seeing evolve here. I'm definitely not liking where I currently stand here in Fayetteville though.
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GSP looking like sleet as well? I know we are usually borderline here between sleet and ZR
 
Webberweather53 said:
Given what we're seeing out of the globals already & how badly they've underestimated this shallow, cold air mass in the southern plains, I'd give a small nod to sleet over freezing rain in the NC piedmont for the moment, esp west of Raleigh-Durham in places like Charlotte & Greensboro. Oth, it's honestly still too early to be confident in that but that's my current gut feeling based on what I'm seeing evolve here. I'm definitely not liking where I currently stand here in Fayetteville though.
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You think CAD areas of NEGA are in a good spot?
 
iGRXY said:
GSP looking like sleet as well? I know we are usually borderline here between sleet and ZR
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Sleet vs ZR is always a difficult forecast because even if you get the profiles and precip rates exactly right, the distribution of cloud condensation nuclei types can still hamper this and give you one or the other even if you leave almost everything between 2 different setups exactly the same.
 
As bad as the euro has been with temps and these are sitting in the mid 30’s in the upstate, this isn’t a very good sign if you don’t want an ice storm. Euro took a big step to that here
 
I think the ICON/UKMET is more realistic tbh. With all of the snow cover up north, I believe the CAD will be stronger than forecasted on most of the global.s
 
hmm...Euro starts to cut and then seems to get shunted due east between 138 and 144. The next frame continued the primary low into Ohio instead of forming a secondary low of the SC coast. Look for that in future runs if the shortwave energy weakens any more.
 
deltadog03 said:
I think there is a very REAL shot at getting that down to me as well.
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Yeah absolutely, there certainly is if we make a few tweaks to the synoptic setup. This kind of air mass coupled w/ the snow cover we'll have all the way down to Virginia is very encouraging for a deep, extensive CAD that could make it very deep into SC & GA.
 
iGRXY said:
As bad as the euro has been with temps and these are sitting in the mid 30’s in the upstate, this isn’t a very good sign if you don’t want an ice storm. Euro took a big step to that here
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I still think these models are underestimating the CAD as they usually do.

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