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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

KyloG said:
That's a stout ridge to the east though? It really has nowhere to go.

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This z500 looks really just means you're getting a lot of warm air pumped into the mid-levels not at the sfc, it helps amp the wave to the west but it would have to be extremely amped to knock out a CAD like this & they usually don't erode in 12 hours even w/ ideal sfc divergence from a sfc low south of the Lakes, so I'm still not buying what some of the EPS is selling. Worth noting too that on a per ensemble member basis (& this applies to both GEFS & EPS), they're worse than the operational models at handling CAD because the resolution of the ensemble members is coarser.

Also be careful what you wish for, the more this z500 amps, it'll trend towards an even deeper CAD because the confluence & deep-layer sinking will be enhanced over SE Canada & the NE US ahead of our wave >> higher sfc pressures over the CAD source region.
 
To compliment my earlier season-to-date snow/sleet accumulation map for NC, here's a map of the number of winter storms thus far in 2020-21. Storms that produced at least a glaze of freezing rain or a dusting of snow (0.2"+) were included

I see @packfan98 & @NCSNOW are living life dangerously, 5 events near Randleman vs 0 in Asheboro.
Winter of 2020-21 Number of Winter Storms.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Gonna have to press [x] doubt on those warm members. You're having to bank on a super amped cyclone running straight into a giant cold high to the north w/ a deep snow cover over the lower Lakes & NE US which will stabilize the boundary layer and force the storm track SE & even then those warm members erode the CAD in < 12 hours, which is extremely hard to do even if a giant low like that is realized.

Like I said earlier, good luck w/ that.

As much as I'd like to see that happen I doubt it unless the synoptic pattern dramatically changes
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Well isn't that HP retreating per the EURO which would allow it to cut?
 
Webberweather53 said:
This z500 looks really just means you're getting a lot of warm air pumped into the mid-levels not at the sfc, it helps amp the wave to the west but it would have to be extremely amped to knock out a CAD like this & they usually don't erode in 12 hours even w/ ideal sfc divergence from a sfc low south of the Lakes, so I'm still not buying what some of the EPS is selling. Worth noting too that on a per ensemble member basis (& this applies to both GEFS & EPS), they're worse than the operational models at handling CAD because the resolution of the ensemble members is coarser.

Also be careful what you wish for, the more this z500 amps, it'll trend towards an even deeper CAD because the confluence & deep-layer sinking will be enhanced over SE Canada & the NE US ahead of our wave >> higher sfc pressures over the CAD source region.
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Another thing with those EPS members that go full on blowtorch is that they go widely away from anything we’ve seen this season. Some of those have temperatures shooting up 15-20 degrees above average over areas with very healthy snowpack.
 
Jessy89 said:
Because at this point it looks like rain with that Track.


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Honestly though, I read their discussion and I was very confused. The discussion mentions that models are in much better agreement now for the timeframe (I don’t in anyway see that). Also the discussion really didn’t mesh with Blackburn’s discussion or WPC guidance. Blacksburg even mentions how all over the place models are right now and any forecast at that range has very low confidence.
 
Mets are all over too. I know WRAL and TWC have the system riding up through eastern TN, basically giving CAD regions some onset ice b4 quick changeover to rain. Hope there is still some variable chance that it doesn't do that....
 
Avalanche said:
Mets are all over too. I know WRAL and TWC have the system riding up through eastern TN, basically giving CAD regions some onset ice b4 quick changeover to rain. Hope there is still some variable chance that it doesn't do that....
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It’s hard to feel confident about any forecast right now. I’m at 48 degrees right now... 10 degrees cooler than what the forecast was saying just 24 hours ago
 
Webberweather53 said:
To compliment my earlier season-to-date snow/sleet accumulation map for NC, here's a map of the number of winter storms thus far in 2020-21. Storms that produced at least a glaze of freezing rain or a dusting of snow (0.2"+) were included

I see @packfan98 & @NCSNOW are living life dangerously, 5 events near Randleman vs 0 in Asheboro.
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Should only be 1 here in SW Durham FYI. Only time we’ve even gotten all snow to fall from the sky was the system in late January, and that was an inch of slush, at best, that melted so quickly. :(

Cool map, regardless, though!! :)
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
Does anyone have details on Feb 1-4 1996 ice storm and if that setup is similar to what this could be? Can't find anything in RAH's past events or Webb's stellar site. Just found this:
https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/event_details?e=163

And then this at BMX:
https://www.weather.gov/bmx/winter_02021996
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We had about 4 inches of sleet here and a couple inches of snow on top of it. It started in the evening and continued well into the next day. There was snow/ice on the ground for at least 4-5 days. It was just pouring sleet. One of my favorite winter storms due to rarity in sleet totals and how long it lasted.
 
HSV AFD


A challenging long term forecast to say the least. Will start off
Saturday morning with some lingering light shower activity, but this
activity should come to an end by the afternoon hours. With the
colder air rushing into the area, there is a small chance for some
very light freezing rain over extreme northwest AL Saturday morning,
but leaning mostly toward sfc temperatures above freezing through the
early morning hours. Will see cooler temperatures on Saturday as
northerly flow continues to advect a much colder airmass into the
area, with a deepening trough entering the Central and Southern
Plains. Overnight lows will dip into the 20s, and an even colder day
will follow on Sunday, with highs near 40 and gusty afternoon winds
making it feel like the mid 30s at the warmest.

All eyes will be on the next system that will follow early next
week, as another, better amplified trough swings over the Southern
Plains on Monday. Blended guidance has backed off a little on the
cold temperatures ahead of this feature, but that will mean little to
those looking forward to warmer weather. Daily highs will be in the
40s with overnight lows in the 20s through the remainder of the
extended.

Now concerning the upper trough on Monday/Tuesday, this system seems
to be trending slightly better amplified over the past 24 hours,
making for a tight temperature gradient around the sfc low. This
would accelerate the arrival of cold temperatures near the sfc, while
a nose of warmer air above ~500m could be the difference between
snow and sleet/freezing rain. The GFS remains the most aggressive
with this system, and would result in some pretty significant icing
over the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. The CMC seems to be
on board with this trend, and maybe more concerning, the ECMWF has
been hinting at a similar solution for the past 48 hours now. Will
say the ECMWF has seemed to have a better handle on the magnitude of
these cold air blasts lately, and currently keeps the worst of the
ice just to our north and west. Will wait before we start to really
buy into any particular solution due to some recent cold biases in
model guidance, but this will definitely bear watching as we go into
the weekend.
 
Not a bad CAD signal on the 12z GEPS ensemble hr 144
e98de2740efff1975d11ea3fc23ac501.gif


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Jessy89 said:
Because at this point it looks like rain with that Track.


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Based on one model run? If we manage to end up with all rain and a high of 51 on Monday I will eat crow. This pattern just screams a classic CAD set up. Yes, things can change of course. And things will certainly jump around between now and then, I do expect them to because well... modeling. But I will be listening to the pro's on this board like @Webberweather53 and @Myfrotho704_ before I go off one or two model runs. They know their stuff!
 
ryan1234 said:
Based on one model run? If we manage to end up with all rain and a high of 51 on Monday I will eat crow. This pattern just screams a classic CAD set up. Yes, things can change of course. And things will certainly jump around between now and then, I do expect them to because well... modeling. But I will be listening to the pro's on this board like @Webberweather53 and @Myfrotho704_ before I go off one or two model runs. They know their stuff!
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I’m not saying it can’t change. I’m just saying what I think the outcome will be based on the Track the Gfs and Euro showed. I think eastern nc to about Asheville sees some ice maybe even extreme northern Pickens Greenville Spartanburg county. But to me this looks like cold rain for a lot of upstate sc and NE Georgia. Now could that change absolutely! So stay tuned


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StormStalker said:
We had about 4 inches of sleet here and a couple inches of snow on top of it. It started in the evening and continued well into the next day. There was snow/ice on the ground for at least 4-5 days. It was just pouring sleet. One of my favorite winter storms due to rarity in sleet totals and how long it lasted.
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Thanks. 4'' of sleet is impressive. We got a 1-2'' sleet here, but less snow and more zr than you did.

There is not a lot of info on this storm compared to others. Maybe it's been overshadowed over the years by other storms.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Dang, icon really backed off at H5,
12z
View attachment 7359918zView attachment 73598
If there’s one thing that’s been popping up time to time, it’s a tail of vorticity that gets left behind, still might be ZR but not as impressive of a H5 look
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Past few runs have trended much warmer. The Atlantic ridge is no joke. Falling in line with warmer euro.
 
Webberweather53 said:
To compliment my earlier season-to-date snow/sleet accumulation map for NC, here's a map of the number of winter storms thus far in 2020-21. Storms that produced at least a glaze of freezing rain or a dusting of snow (0.2"+) were included

I see @packfan98 & @NCSNOW are living life dangerously, 5 events near Randleman vs 0 in Asheboro.
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You are spot on this year. This happens alot in our county. Usually more pronounced from seagrove or Farmer up to Asheboro. You gain elevation. The Dec 2009 Storm, I lived out toward Farmer. Had white Rain, went 3 miles up to hwy 64 and 3 inches was on the gorund before they mixed.
 
KyloG said:
Past few runs have trended much warmer. The Atlantic ridge is no joke. Falling in line with warmer euro.
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This is the first ICON run to be warmer since 12z yesterday and it comes after the 12z EURO and EPS were colder. Again... no trends just models swinging back and forth.
 
Webberweather53 said:
To compliment my earlier season-to-date snow/sleet accumulation map for NC, here's a map of the number of winter storms thus far in 2020-21. Storms that produced at least a glaze of freezing rain or a dusting of snow (0.2"+) were included

I see @packfan98 & @NCSNOW are living life dangerously, 5 events near Randleman vs 0 in Asheboro.
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Thank you Webber
By recent years standards it has been an epic winter in the NC High Country.

Over 4500’ since November 29 there has been at least partial snow cover for 72 of the last 74 days.

That makes for a great memorable winter.

I wish everyone had snow in all areas and I also wish more people who like snow would head to the mountains to enjoy it .

In areas where I have cross country skied the last 2 weekends I did not see a single person. Just deep virgin untouched snow
 
KyloG said:
Compare the runs today...all warmer with stronger ridge.


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I should correct myself... I’m looking solely at how the models are handling that TPV, because that appears to be the key in this whole set up. The ICON was further SE on every run since 12z yesterday, while the 12z Euro today was SE. Also it should be mentioned that the model runs from 3 days ago that were showing that TPV so far west have missed greatly. It’s much further east which is why so many global model runs have performed so poorly with temperatures out in the Plains
 
I thought we agreed to toss the 18Z runs? Webb said they do not have new data ingested like the 12 and 00Z does
 
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