This is a “king” 
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Jessy89
Member
It could certainly flop back to ice. But with that look on that run I think you’d get cold rain. Maybe northern Pickens Greenville Spartanburg north and east see a little ice. A lot can and will change
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At this point, I think a sig winter wx event is bound to happen, especially for the CAD regions. As has been stated above there is just way to much snowpack to our north for the CAD regions of NC, SC, and GA not to see something. Areas to the west like Middle TN and N AL are more up in the air. I could see them possibly being too warm for the sig snowfalls or ice that some models are spitting out. Only because they are depending on TPV. But W TN. TX, and LA stand a better chance at least at this point. Not really looking forward to ice though. Would love to see this trend towards more snow/sleet but CAD always seems to spell ice for CLT, RAH, and even the Midlands at this juncture. I think the Triad areas may be able to escape an all or mostly ZR event. Time will tell. Definitely am intrigued to say the very least.
I think CLT-GSO could get lucky and escape with IP
SnowNiner
Member
If it cuts or nots is a big deal for me. If it cuts, I don't have a lot of faith that whatever cold makes it east can hold on for the WAA created by a storm to our west. Then it's likely to be freezing rain "best" case scenario, likely at onset. Too amped is bad. The SE ridge ain't helping matters.
Today is a good example of how much trouble models have with CAD. Most guidance today had the CLT metro getting to the upper 50s today, but I’m stuck at 50 right now after briefly getting to 52. No precip... just a constant, light NE wind. So actual temperatures are off from guidance just 24 hours ago by 6-8 degrees and this is very weak CAD right now
packfan98
Moderator
It will be interesting to see what the EPS does. I know that the 6z run was better than the 0z. I'm sure @Myfrotho704_ will keep us updated. Thank you to everyone who keeps the thread popping with the play-by-play and posting the model runs.
Well, lets hope so. I still think CLT will be a mix of both ZR and IP. We always ride that fine line so that's why I am saying ZR. Especially for me being a bit SE of 85.
Yeah, the temp actually dropped in the last 2 hours. It's supposed to be in the mid 50's tomorrow but I don't see that happening TBH.
ATLwxfan
Member
We could hit 70. No CAD issues whatsoever here. Just a ridge doing what ridges do.
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Stormlover
Member
GEFS mon night 
Thur night
Thur night
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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The 12/2002 ice storm had ALOT more sleet than forecasted! It was supposed to be all ZR, but thank goodness, there was a lot of sleet! Never saw 1 flake of snow in GSP, unlike up towards Gastonia and up. Was a great storm! Just re emphasizing your point, it’s trick up until go time
This is why no one can look at any of these runs and say that there’s is any sort of trend one way or another...that was the case with both yesterday’s warm runs and today’s colder runs. Personally I’m trying to look back to 3 days ago and see the location of the TPV on the runs that we’re holding back west longer or even having move west. I’m wanting to say that it’s actually verified to be very far to the east just based on memory though.
LovingGulfLows
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I honestly believe there's some potential with the second wave for areas a bit further east than those getting snow from the 1st wave on Monday/Tuesday. It really depends on if the ridge can relax some and make things a bit flatter. It's nice to see the GEFS supports it's own operational model with the 2nd system.
The “king” doesn’t like folding in one run it likes to take its time so people don’t look at it too funny.. in reality we all know how the euro has been performing lately and as kylo said earlier it’s nothing like what it used to be in my book
iGRXY
Member
EPS is colder than 0Z.
What I was thinking or more specifically, maybe slowing down (stabilizing) from the more radical changes/flips run-to-run.
baroowoofr
Member
For you UKMET lovers, thought I'd drop this. F5 has a 10km UKMET that goes out to hr 168 (not sure if it is the same model data, just extended, or if it has updated under the hood, so to speak.
H5 evolution (vort panels not loading on F5 for some reason):
Precip:
The ice is something to behold on that one, but no ice accum panels on F5
H5 evolution (vort panels not loading on F5 for some reason):
Precip:
The ice is something to behold on that one, but no ice accum panels on F5
packfan98
Moderator
How about 6z? If so, that's a solid trend.
Here’s just a short explanation of our different solutions right now, this ain’t a accumulation map or anything but just a map to give a example, some options on the table with this storm that’s 5-6 days away 
ICON is the new King, anyways. My new ride ‘n die! All hail the King!!!
ICON was a crazy solution, though. Basically one of the deepest CAD depictions I’ve seen. It’s possible, but seems a bit extreme.
EPS is warmer then 06z but colder then 00z last night
ATLwxfan
Member
How has the NAM been doing?
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And it’s the first to show it’s cards! Not like the euro that likes to steal the show for the last model of the cycle
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
This time stamp is after the storm tho. Just to be transparent.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
You’re right. I was in Concord at the time and we were only forecasted to get a little sleet mixed in at the onset. Instead we got snow right at the start and then around a 1/2 inch of sleet before it switch out that steady light freezing rain accrued I can’t imagine how the ice accrual would have been if it had all started as all ZR
That's right as precip would be ending. So yeah, maybe front end ice in cad areas but it quickly warms per EPS.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Nah unless you’re talking about away from CAD areas.
Here are all the members just as precip starts. You could argue the CAD might be stronger on the ones showing cad but on the blowtorch members that's not cad modeled incorrectly.
packfan98
Moderator
Dang! That's a lot of different looks. So volatile with the smallest feature changing the sensible weather in the CAD regions.
SouthSideYankee
Member
If we're about to dump ice, sleet and snow I can see the Thurs system track further south than this show.
Yep agreed, it could go either way but I look at that and think the cold is having a hard time making east...
Maybe the western areas, I77 corridor, gets a crazy harsh ice storm, but for the RDU folks it's going to be tough. We haven't had a significant impacting ice storm in 20 years. They are just so rare and it's rare for a reason.
ATLwxfan
Member
The SER has been the most consistently modeled element in the last 7 days of runs.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Gonna have to press [x] doubt on those warm members. You're having to bank on a super amped cyclone running straight into a giant cold high to the north w/ a deep snow cover over the lower Lakes & NE US which will stabilize the boundary layer and force the storm track SE & even then those warm members erode the CAD in < 12 hours, which is extremely hard to do even if a giant low like that is realized.
Like I said earlier, good luck w/ that.
As much as I'd like to see that happen I doubt it unless the synoptic pattern dramatically changes
NCSNOW
Member
I'm pulling the Carpet Burn Watch off the Table: Said I would wait till 12z today and decide if it needed to be upgraded to a warning: We are inside the 5 day benchmark with a enough consensus and still plenty of volatility to not be able to exactly nail down specefics.
However This is the 1st time in the almost 2 weeks we've been tracking this TPV out of the Strat event that began a few weeks back, that an actual threat of a winter storm hasn't faded, the rug get yanked out from underneath us as we approached the 120hr mark(5 days). Thanks to the iCON,Ukmet and lesser extent New GFS old GFS and parts of the Eps. Highly likely the CAD region will see Warning Criteria Ice at a minimum in several locations. My hunch is this will be more widespread and intense than what is being shown, talked about nws , tv mets etc.
However This is the 1st time in the almost 2 weeks we've been tracking this TPV out of the Strat event that began a few weeks back, that an actual threat of a winter storm hasn't faded, the rug get yanked out from underneath us as we approached the 120hr mark(5 days). Thanks to the iCON,Ukmet and lesser extent New GFS old GFS and parts of the Eps. Highly likely the CAD region will see Warning Criteria Ice at a minimum in several locations. My hunch is this will be more widespread and intense than what is being shown, talked about nws , tv mets etc.
packfan98
Moderator
Fair point. I think if the shortwave is a little weaker and more progressive we can get a more favorable Miller B transfer off the SC coast. The GFS has been overamped several times this winter at this lead time. It will be interesting to see what feature wins - Strong HP, SER, TPV confluence, etc... From what I've seen in the runs today, the confluence has been hanging in there a little stronger pushing everything a little further south (including the SER). Tricky part is if it hangs around too long like on some of yesterday's runs, it blocks the High Pressure from getting in a favorable position for filtering in the cold. Pretty cool to track this and watch it unfold.
JLL1973
Member
What the heck. 17 inches imby. Don’t think I e ever seen that much modeled here. I’ll take a third and call it a winter