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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

I think the models are all locked in on ice for the mid south. West of the mountains right now east of the mountains I would say rain for most ice for a few NE NC Virginia etc. but to me the most uncertainty is east of the mountains with how the models have flip flopped


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Jessy89 said:
I think the models are all locked in on ice for the mid south. West of the mountains right now east of the mountains I would say rain for most ice for a few NE NC Virginia etc. but to me the most uncertainty is east of the mountains with how the models have flip flopped


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Making a call for areas east of the apps is not ideal, anything is on the table from thunderstorms to a sleet storm
 
Man that SER isn't budging at all

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_32.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Patterns just don’t do what they used to do, I thought -NAOs produced snow for NC
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This probably registers as a -NAO, but it is not ideal. Doesn't mean the GFS is correct, though. We must have a well-positioned ridge or block up north if we're not going to get help from ridging out west. In this run, we're not getting any. But we still probably have a -NAO in terms of the calculation.
 
This is an actual afd in Dallas ? this is gonna be in the history books out here

The freezer door will then be propped open on Sunday as mid level
ridging amplifies over the Northwest U.S. and our polar low over
Southern Canada pivots eastward allowing a chunk of arctic air to
spread southward through the Plains. A 1050 mb high will surge
southward behind a strong cold front but ahead of a compact
shortwave ejecting out of the southwest U.S. This will set the
stage for some exceptionally cold air to spread into North Texas
over the latter half of the weekend into early next week. We're
becoming increasingly concerned for a prolonged cold spell with
actual air temperatures falling into the single digits to near 0
across parts of the region by Monday. While the GFS is currently
the coldest guidance, other global guidance and ensemble members
indicate 850 mb temps falling into the -12 to -17 degree range
which would be in the coldest 10% of temperatures in our observed
sounding data. In addition, a pool of moisture will reside across
much of East Texas and should quickly surge northwestward into the
region as strong forcing overspreads North Texas late Sunday into
Monday. With column temperatures as cold as currently forecast,
widespread moderate to heavy snow would be expected to develop as
the shortwave spreads across the Southern Plains. The current
forecast will reflect these trends with all snow by late Sunday
night and continuing into Monday. While it's a little early to pin
down exact accumulations, as of now, it appears that widespread
snowfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible over a large
area of the region. Column temperatures would be cold enough to
support higher snowfall ratios than we typically see which could
result in significantly heaftier snow totals. North winds 15 to 25
mph could also result in significant reductions to visibility
during the snow. This will be a fast moving system, but definitely
has the potential for significant impacts to travel and
infrastructure across the region. Extremely cold weather will
continue into the middle of next week.

It should be stressed that this bout of extreme cold may have
significant impact to infrastructure over the latter part of the
weekend into early next week. Exposed pipes are likely to burst in
the prolonged cold. Preparations should be made now to protect
exposed pipes or other infrastructure sensitive to the cold. Plans
should be made for pets and people.

While significant snow is forecast for Monday, the extreme cold
and wind will make travel dangerous and snow clearing operations
much more difficult. The snowpack is likely to linger and become
compacted further complicating the clearing efforts.
 
Here is How I see it right now. GA and Carolinas got to hope we get the high over in time for CAD ZR or IP or both. My confidence in that is low, but still plenty of time to see how changes are going to work out. I really think this is an AL, TN, MS, LA TX and AR system. I have lived in TX and the blue norther is the real deal. I think that the Apps are going to work against us, and the TPV is shearing out and and not really making for a good CAD look. I know there is more time, and yes I am not giving up for GA and the Carolinas, but I think the trends are enough to see we might have wintry weather issues....Time will tell for sure though.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
Does anyone have details on Feb 1-4 1996 ice storm and if that setup is similar to what this could be? Can't find anything in RAH's past events or Webb's stellar site. Just found this:
https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/event_details?e=163

And then this at BMX:
https://www.weather.gov/bmx/winter_02021996
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Yeah that's a storm that's always been on my radar of ones to do at some point & I almost analyzed it a few years back. There would be a lot of data to sift through and potentially bias correct or cross-validate, as the reporting errors are arguably larger than most other storms at many stations across east-central NC.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah that's a storm that's always been on my radar of ones to do at some point & I almost analyzed it a few years back. There would be a lot of data to sift through and potentially bias correct or cross-validate, as the reporting errors are arguably larger than most other storms at many stations across east-central NC.
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Thanks Webb. I'd imagine there would have been a lot of reporting errors. I lived not far from GSO airport at the time and distinctly remember observing every precip type during the event. IP was predominant though.

Also, best sledding conditions I ever experienced.
 
ATLwxfan said:
I’m going to look at mesoscale models only. At first glance, CAD considerably stronger on NAM, WRF, RGEM vs GFS


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THIS! All the LR models have been atrocious all winter. I am done looking at them as well. They have offered very little insight, other than pattern recognition and even that has been laughable. Like @Myfrotho704_ said we won't really have a great understanding until Friday when they start coming into range. But for everyone's sanity, stop looking at trash. And that's putting it nicely.
 
Jessy89 said:
I’m leaning that way to


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Personally I think everything is still on the table with the respects to this system. Ultimately it’s going to come down to what ends up happening to that TPV lobe. If it’s held back then the CAD won’t be as strong and it’s pretty much rain. If the TPV moves SE to a good position, then CAD is much stronger and a significant winter storm is very much on the table. Right now we can’t get any clarity with that because we can continue to see such back and forth with the models. All we can do to any sort of real feel for it is seeing how it’s verifying compared to past model run... right compared to runs from 3 days ago the TPV is significantly more east than what those runs were indicating for this time period.
 
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