iGRXY
Member
A lot more can go wrong for that area. Things have to be timed perfectly for areas west of the Apps.
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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
You would have loved the winters we had in the late 70's/early 80's in Birmingham.
December 2005... we’ve been saved by sleet a lot of times since then
Initial LP placement is good but would tend to ride up inside the coast unless that HP comes east more and shunts the LP more ene
LovingGulfLows
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- Jan 5, 2017
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With those temps and a deep, low snowgrowth layer, you'd have to think snow ratios would be between 15:1 and 20:1. Even with .3 QPF, that could easily be between 4.5-6 inches of snow.
I have a feeling after all is said and done with this pattern, you and I are going to wish the Appalachians didn't exist. La. Ms, Ala, and Tn peeps have to be in weenie heaven.
#winteriscoming 
GFS has over a foot here looking at the Kuchera ratio.
12Z GFS again has ZR at SAV. While very rare, this colder trend of the other models since 12Z yesterday along with the sub -5 AO progged for ~2/10-1 (hasn’t been a single day of sub -5 AO since Dec of 2010!!) tells me not to discount the possibility of something very rare like that.
Also, we’re really not in the range yet that the GFS is going to pick up well on CAD. The signal for it has been there for a few days in the ensembles. Now if the deeper cold air is available to tap into....
Right and if we swing the TPV a bit south over the GL instead just north. The whole board is going to be hoppin
CMC is finally getting a clue with its thick ass head 
Flotown
Member
anybody got sleet totals on that dat night system gfs showing?
iGRXY
Member
Ehhhhhh, Only thing killing us is the TPV being modeled too far west and that is trending further east. CAD is trending colder and colder now and that is almost the most sure fire thing to get winter weather in the southeast instead of relying on HP funneling down from the midwest where it doesn't either shred the wave to pieces or actually comes far enough south to bring in enough cold air. Guess my point is there are way more variables west of the apps where things have to be perfect. CAD is more common and trends better the closer you get to it. Only problem is the most common precip type is ice and that's what I think will likely be the end result out of this.
GFS has 4 straight days of highs under 10 for OKC starting this weekend. That is straight up insanity. Although if we get the snow cover it’s showing it’s probably possible.
Texas may turn into a glacier per GFS.
Warm regards
Warm regards
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