Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

[DixieBlizzard]

Sry for the dumb question. But where are the cad areas?

In the Carolinas, from GSP to RDU N&W.


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Cold Air Damming: Setup, Forecast Methods/Challenges for the Eastern US

@Flo Here's a good read on the subject.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Now we're talking...maybe. Just maybe.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

We're not getting this look again.

IDK, I still think it's plausible. We're really not too far from something similar playing out Sunday-Monday.

 

[Winter Storm]

Icon looks good for early next week. Hope it's a trend.

 

[DixieBlizzard]

During the strongest CAD it can go well past the ATL metro and into AL. Although, I am not sure how often that translates to winter wx for those areas. Especially western GA and AL.

Not often but when it does, it can be brutal pretty far west. At least in the 80's and early 2000's, it used to be.

 

[deltadog03]

Ridge looks taller on West Coast so far.
6z vs 12z

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[deltadog03]

 

[NWMSGuy]

Looks like a little bit of a better push with ice in Extreme Northwest MS at hour 72 to 78 than what the 06z was showing.

 

[deltadog03]

If these trends keep up, it's going to be really bad. CAD is almost always going to be undermodeled at this range.

2m temps always as well.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Some differences between this time frame (ICON more stout) but geez any wedging and we tap into that deeper cold source

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[deltadog03]

I like these trends so far yall!!
6z vs 12z run

 

[Rain Cold]

View attachment 72682

Not sure I like the look of the S/W crashing into the Pac NW like that. Would ideally like the western ridge intact and taller and inland a bit from the west coast.

 

[GaWx]

12Z GFS is now clearly going to be the coldest in many runs!

 

[Storm5]

That energy over Cali

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[Myfrotho704_]

Now it’s really reflecting

 

[Ollie Williams]

Nice 850 trend!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Incoming

 

[deltadog03]