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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Wow! Rain even into Central Mississippi on the 0Z Euro. As a matter of fact, the Euro tracks through Southeast MS. Maybe the eastern SE could make a run towards severe weather within the next few model runs?


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Well, congrats to the Ohio Valley on this one. storms maybe in GA this run and Carolinas...well, cool rain. West of there you have a shot. Euro almost does shut out AL tho as well.
We have also lost about 6mb on the high and it's not anchored in for us. Starting to see a little more consistency with the models now
 
The EURO is 25 degrees warmer over my area with that cutter vs all other modeling being south/east and much colder. I'll be absolutely stunned if it doesn't cave back to them over the next 48 hours. It's struggled big time this winter season on this side of the Apps. I can't think of a single event back to November 30th where it scooped the GFS/GGem/V16.

I don't know what's happened to it to cause it to swing so wildly all winter season.
 
I think what sucks is we are gonna waste a great airmass if your GA east south and NE. Just sucks. But her are you gonna do. This outcome will change for sure, but we are getting a little more run to run trends. Bad news is that they are good ones for some, jackpots for others.
 
deltadog03 said:
I think what sucks is we are gonna waste a great airmass if your GA east south and NE. Just sucks. But her are you gonna do. This outcome will change for sure, but we are getting a little more run to run trends. Bad news is that they are good ones for some, jackpots for others.
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That's wx! It has no feelings, Chris. It just is what it is. That's why I don't get mad. It is already predetermined what will happen. But we (models) are not smart enough to know. And it is that not knowing that makes model watching so much fun.
 
I’d rather have these changes right now in the medium range ... our storms come back short range ... I want NAM range anything is possible outside of there
 
Snowman63 said:
No, the previous two Euro runs were snow. This run is mostly ice.
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12z was rain in Memphis Thursday morning while most other modeling has been consistently showing ice. The Euro has been doing really badly at the surface with this Arctic airmass. It was showing Union City at 37 at 7pm Tuesday evening and it verified at 29. Missing by 8 degrees at 6 hours is a huge miss. In couple of days leading up to this it's moved the ice from southern Ohio/Indiana to the Tennessee Kentucky border. I don't know why, but it's been swinging wildly at short leads this year and even more wildly at long leads. At one point during the Christmas snow event lead up it had about a 5 run stretch from just a few days out where it showed basically every kind of weather possible in December imby. I noted at the time that at least one run had to be right because it was changing so much that it showed everything that could happen. Ironically it's closest run before inside 24 hours to what actually happened was when it showed it at D9. The GFSV16 also showed it at day 9 but was pretty rock solid with it all the way home.

This was today's 12z run that showed rain in Memphis and Northern Mississippi, now it's showing heavy freezing rain about 80 miles south of where it had been showing it. The snow you're referring to was around 5 days after this event.

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I hate to get all weenie on you guys (well not really), but the 6Z ICON is significantly colder than the 0Z thanks to the 6Z's center of the big sfc high (1049 mb) being a whopping 500 miles SSW of its 0Z position ( far NE NB vs N MN). The jumpiness from run to run of most models is insane and off the charts! This 500 mile change in the sfc high center is only out 120 hours!

I realize that the ICON isn't the most stable model from run to run and I'd highly doubt the GFS would have a change that drastic, but come on!
 
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GaWx said:
I hate to get all weenie on you guys (well not really), but the 6Z ICON is significantly colder than the 0Z thanks to the 6Z's center of the big sfc high (1049 mb) being a whopping 500 miles SSW of its 0Z position ( far NE NB vs N MN). The jumpiness from run to run of most models is insane and off the charts! This 500 mile change in the sfc high center is only out 120 hours!

I realize that the ICON isn't the most stable model from run to run and I'd highly doubt the GFS would have a change that drastic, but come on!
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I dunno seems the ICON is the least variable over the last day or so (which is saying something ) though it could just be me mixing it up.
 
Winter started off with TX and OK getting repeated winter storms and now will finish that way. 18 more days until March...can’t come soon enough.

Hopefully Brent gets hit next week with this. ?

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A lot of doom and gloom just for the GFS to bring the storm back and the Icon to get colder. None of these models are worth anything beyond 72 hours. Not the ensembles, not the OP, none of them. They change on a dime, they look nothing like they did the previous run, they spit out a whole knew solution or evolution to get to a solution.
 
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