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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Snowfan said:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png
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Is there anyway we can keep that low from cutting inland?
 
ATLwxfan said:
Thank the good lord. The ridge is our friend. That was a close call though.


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It really wasn’t. The GFS was going to have an ice storm there. It parked the TPV out of nowhere and wouldn’t allow Hp to slide east and build in. The odds of that happening are slim to none IMO
 
Stormsfury said:
Verbatim ... no...
But in actuality... should be yes... the high is entrenching down and the SFC low should be forced to go around and/or transfer east offshore into the western wall of the Gulf Stream...
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actually yes, devastating ice in nw ala 1612930759583.png
 

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Looks like south Louisiana gets smacked with ice and temps falling into the teens and single digits by Tuesday morning. What a run! I still wish it would line up for snow. That low takes a track too close to the Gulf coast after emerging from south Texas.
 
NCSNOW said:
Im not upgrading the carpet burn watch to a warning tonight. Seen enough to say maybe the rug want get pulled out from underneath us. Next decession will the 12z tommorow.
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I might hang out for the UKMET. The nut case shrink formally known as Doc can wait until morning.
 
iGRXY said:
It really wasn’t. The GFS was going to have an ice storm there. It parked the TPV out of nowhere and wouldn’t allow Hp to slide east and build in. The odds of that happening are slim to none IMO
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Except that this look has shown up several times going back a week though pushed out further as time has gone on. I posted about how ridiculous it seemed then. The fact that it keeps showing up means we just can’t dismiss it.


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ATLwxfan said:
Except that this look has shown up several times going back a week though pushed out further as time has gone on. I posted about how ridiculous it seemed then. The fact that it keeps showing up means we just can’t dismiss it.


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Not exactly. You gotten a bad look but from different reasons. We’ve gone from the TPV trended west and almost dropping into Montana, to finally it pushing east, but getting weaker, now it’s not as weak but it just randomly stops after trucking along? That’s not trends. That’s the complete opposite. Yes you don’t get a wintry look but how it gets there is completely different and this latest look on the GFS is the most unlikely one of the 3 to happen.
 
iGRXY said:
Not exactly. You gotten a bad look but from different reasons. We’ve gone from the TPV trended west and almost dropping into Montana, to finally it pushing east, but getting weaker, now it’s not as weak but it just randomly stops after trucking along? That’s not trends. That’s the complete opposite. Yes you don’t get a wintry look but how it gets there is completely different and this latest look on the GFS is the most unlikely one of the 3 to happen.
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A week ago we had modeling showing a equally impressive propagation of a stout PV with frigid conditions to the Louisiana coast and a significant moderation in temps with the ridging into GA and SC. Yes it then trended west.


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