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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

deltadog03 said:
Ready for more model mayhem today?
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I just want to see some model agreement throughout the day of our TPV not getting too strung out and set up shop around or just north of the Great Lakes by Friday. We're really getting into that 96-120 hour range where the models should be able to converge on some consensus of the main feature placement for the end of the week.

Last night's EMCF, ICON, and the 6z GFS are hopefully the start of a good day of runs!
 
Ok I would like to do a little analysis here - perhaps it has been done before. I don't post often but maybe can contribute in some way.

We talk often about the continuous "roll over" to the "next ten days out" in other words. Storm "A" shows on the GFS at the 10-day mark and would arrive Feb. 14, but 7-days out it has fizzled out and Storm "B" shows up with a hit 4 days later, with an arrival date of Feb. 17. So there is this perpetual "10-day out" storm always brewing, that always fizzles out. I would like to do a little analysis of which long-range model has done the best job of nailing an accurate 10-day forecast.

Any ideas in where to collect that kind of data in a table or list format that would make analysis more straightforward or point me in the direction of an existing analysis?

Mods please feel free to move this if there is a more accurate thread. Maybe a running long range model analysis accuracy thread that could be updated regularly over time.

Thanks!
 
Drscottsmith said:
Ok I would like to do a little analysis here - perhaps it has been done before. I don't post often but maybe can contribute in some way.

We talk often about the continuous "roll over" to the "next ten days out" in other words. Storm "A" shows on the GFS at the 10-day mark and would arrive Feb. 14, but 7-days out it has fizzled out and Storm "B" shows up with a hit 4 days later, with an arrival date of Feb. 17. So there is this perpetual "10-day out" storm always brewing, that always fizzles out. I would like to do a little analysis of which long-range model has done the best job of nailing an accurate 10-day forecast.

Any ideas in where to collect that kind of data in a table or list format that would make analysis more straightforward or point me in the direction of an existing analysis?

Mods please feel free to move this if there is a more accurate thread. Maybe a running long range model analysis accuracy thread that could be updated regularly over time.

Thanks!
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Another intriguing question to me is to be able to assign numerical values to statements made here like "the inevitable NW trend" - we often make these statements and they end up being true, but what REAL number is assigned to that truth, 90% of the time, 88% of the time that happens? Does one long or short-range tend to so this more often? Do we see these percentages change over time?

Kind of like Webb's great historical snowfall maps that give us referrals to real-life analogs from the past.
 
it's been a while since an arctic mass of this magnitude has threatened my area of the southeast, but one thing I remember happening with the models is their ability to forecast ,even in the fairly short term the low level cold. even the 12znam at 8am projects the freezing line about 50 north of actuality in western Tex and Okl. this is not a comfort to me, because ,if anything will mean a greater chance of frrreezing rain deeper into the SE.
 
Right now I'd say the best possible wintry solution in the southeast right now is a ice storm in the CAD regions of NC/SC/NE GA. Things have been flip flopping way too much beyond 3 days. We still don't know if the TPV is going to be sitting on the west coast, Central canada, The GL, or over Quebec.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I hope we trend like the Jan 27-28 storm this time there would be a lot more cold air available if we lined everything up. Could give us a chance for a board wide event vs mostly cad centric ice and rain if the vortex comes more SE
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I agree. Wouldn’t it be ironic if somehow we trend back to that first initial few runs? Lmao
 
Chazwin said:
Thank you for pointing this out. I’ve always felt that a lot of folks get too caught up in surface temps when talking about snow ratios. High ratio snows are just not very common in the south. Even January 1988 gave CLT around a 12:1 ratio and that was the fluffiest snow that many of us around here can remember.
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No, in 2003, Charlotte had a storm where the ratios were 49 to 1.That is the driest snow I have seen. 8.5 niches and you could walk through it without picking up your feet. Used a leaf blower to clean the drive.
 
We might see some meh trends with 12z stuff, NAM went West with the TPV A bit
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree. Wouldn’t it be ironic if somehow we trend back to that first initial few runs? Lmao
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You mean something like this one? While I'd have preferred a solution to still be on the table from that 02/03 12z run, the placement of the TPV on that run was further east than now appears even remotely possible. Something resembling this 18z run is still plausible Saturday-Sunday.
1612795853410.png
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
You mean something like this one? While I'd have preferred a solution to still be on the table from that 02/03 12z run, the placement of the TPV on that run was further east than now appears even remotely possible. Something resembling this 18z run is still plausible Saturday-Sunday.
View attachment 72662
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ya that would be amazing!
 
These kinds of extreme systems are very interesting to watch. You get an opportunity to see if increased technology can keep up with the most powerful elements. I think we see the struggle with the flip flops of the models already!
 
Not trying to post banner material by any means. But does anyone have a explanation as to why Models are struggling so much? This really has been a case since last year. There not even reliable inside 3 days


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Jessy89 said:
Not trying to post banner material by any means. But does anyone have a explanation as to why Models are struggling so much? This really has been a case since last year. There not even reliable inside 3 days


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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1. Reduced air travel from COVID-19 = less OBS of the upper air pattern
2. Just like ULLs, TPVs are extremely hard to forecast even in the short range
3. Model biases
4. Not often you have a TPV like that around here in the first place so it’s pattern that’s not gonna be handled easily by models
 
So through 84, the ICON has trended a bit north with the TPV and is bringing an SW ashore into Oregan that hasn't been there. Let's see how this plays out in time.
 
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