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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Trending to a WC ridge on the GEFS with the Aleutian low, remember back when the GEFS/EPS was hinting at it ? There it is A386559B-966B-4D18-95F0-36A03134730C.gifB81D06F6-2BC4-4DBF-9AAF-4EBE1EDC1C05.gif
You can still see that jet extension... I wonder if a +PNA can trend better over time 697D82AA-30F4-454C-8787-722AE02DAEFC.png
 
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Looks like a dry cold for the western Gulf coast for Saturday through Wednesday. That's what's hurting precip chances. We have the cold ingredients, but it's a question of getting moisture into it during this time frame.
 
I’ll say this and the chances appear slim at best. But if we do get snow sat-Wednesday timeframe Georgia nc South Carolina the ratios could be high. With this cold showing up. 15 to 1 even 20 to 1


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Larry Cosgrove

6m ·

The harshest part of winter will be visiting North America. Be ready, because this episode could last for a while.
Let me explain the thought process here. A blocking ridge keeps appearing over Baffin Island/Greenland. The various numerical models show this feature having a continued cycle of growth, retrogression and replacement from now through most of March. Complicating the situation is an active storm sequence ejecting out of an Arctic motherlode over Siberia.
Every time these disturbances dive under the ridge complex, a pocket of bitter cold air is forced to deviate far southward in association with the storms. Bitter chilled cAk values crush the warmer values, sweeping through the Great Lakes and Mississippi River watershed. Only Florida and the American Southwest miss the Arctic air.
The complication with the arrival of the cold in Canada and the U.S. is that the aforementioned storms will work with a subtropical jet stream and create precipitation. Snow and ice are going to be a big problem. I have identified the system near the Aleutian Islands as being the biggest threat, setting up cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico that moves into lower Appalachia, and quite possible will redevelop off of the Virginia Capes this weekend. This weekend looks to be "rough sledding".
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Jessy89 said:
I’ll say this and the chances appear slim at best. But if we do get snow sat-Wednesday timeframe Georgia nc South Carolina the ratios could be high. With this cold showing up. 15 to 1 even 20 to 1


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Looking at the ensembles, I actually would lean towards the idea of there being a significant ice/sleet event in the Friday to Sunday timeframe for the Carolinas and Northern GA. There has been fairly strong CAD signal now for a couple days... even with the warmer model runs. Unfortunately, I just don’t think we’re gonna have anymore than a 72 hour lead time into any specific winter storm potential. There is obviously something with models that is giving them a hard time figuring out what to do what that TPV lobe... we’re literally seeing 100s miles differences from model to model and run to run.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Larry Cosgrove

6m ·

The harshest part of winter will be visiting North America. Be ready, because this episode could last for a while.
Let me explain the thought process here. A blocking ridge keeps appearing over Baffin Island/Greenland. The various numerical models show this feature having a continued cycle of growth, retrogression and replacement from now through most of March. Complicating the situation is an active storm sequence ejecting out of an Arctic motherlode over Siberia.
Every time these disturbances dive under the ridge complex, a pocket of bitter cold air is forced to deviate far southward in association with the storms. Bitter chilled cAk values crush the warmer values, sweeping through the Great Lakes and Mississippi River watershed. Only Florida and the American Southwest miss the Arctic air.
The complication with the arrival of the cold in Canada and the U.S. is that the aforementioned storms will work with a subtropical jet stream and create precipitation. Snow and ice are going to be a big problem. I have identified the system near the Aleutian Islands as being the biggest threat, setting up cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico that moves into lower Appalachia, and quite possible will redevelop off of the Virginia Capes this weekend. This weekend looks to be "rough sledding".
View attachment 72655


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If Larry is right, then the Carolinas and Northern GA stand a decent chance of scoring at once. The fact that he points out that Florida would be spared is a good sign of that. It always seems to me that if Florida is in the freezer, everything is going to get suppressed and leave us bone dry.
 
Poimen said:
The cold helps but ratios are dependent upon other factors too.
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Thank you for pointing this out. I’ve always felt that a lot of folks get too caught up in surface temps when talking about snow ratios. High ratio snows are just not very common in the south. Even January 1988 gave CLT around a 12:1 ratio and that was the fluffiest snow that many of us around here can remember.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I hope we trend like the Jan 27-28 storm this time there would be a lot more cold air available if we lined everything up. Could give us a chance for a board wide event vs mostly cad centric ice and rain if the vortex comes more SE
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Im calling GFS to have FAY at 35 and rain ?
 
FallsLake said:
RAH also unsure how things will play out (understandably):

.....A cold front will bring drier northerly flow and decreasing chances
of precipitation from NW to SE on Friday. However, it appears the
front will again stall to the south, with possible waves of low
pressure riding along it, which would continue light precipitation
chances for the weekend especially in the SE. However, timing these
systems this far out is nearly impossible. For now have mainly
slight chance POPs in NW zones and low chance POPs in the SE. The
00z ECMWF also finally shows the polar vortex moving east to SE
Canada, resulting in cold Arctic air that has been locked over the
Midwest finally moving to the eastern US. This could also mean a
chance for wintry precipitation in central NC so continue mention of
mixed precipitation in the weather grids for the weekend. However,
confidence of this is low at this time.

As for temperatures, the cold Arctic air will remain bottled over
the central US through at least Friday, so highs near or slightly
below normal (upper-40s to 50s) are expected during this period,
with clouds and moisture keeping lows above normal (mid-30s to mid-
40s). Behind the cold frontal passage on Friday, temperatures will
be cooler for the weekend, but exactly how much so is uncertain. The
GFS is very warm again by Sunday with an upper ridge over the
eastern US, but this is not supported by its ensembles, the NBM, or
the ECMWF, so lean toward the cooler solution and continue highs in
the 40s.
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Yeah it's kind of funny to see rn/sn in the forecast for Sat night and Sun.... I mean 7 days out always has a little uncertainty but not like this.
 
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