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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

Euro not doing well with the low level cold out west as well...this is the 12Z forecast of around now.....

euro surface mid.png

Reality is OKC is at 20, and all but the very SE corner of OK is well below freezing and places in north TX where this shows 41-45 are currently in the upper 20's, that's a pretty darn big error in this range.....this wont matter much for us here in NC though if the PV does not actually get in here lol.....but if it does then chances are the Euro wont be cold enough with the temps.
 
Everyone is saying calm down, I get that. But there's another dimension to this though. General public expects that a seven day forecast shown to them on news at night is generally correct or close to correct. Let's just assume the models are STILL wrong, and there won't be a SE ridge. Let's say the forecast is a high of 44 with rain on next Tuesday in Atlanta and this gets shown on Channel 2 news or something. The general public would believe it. But then let's say it changes and we end up with 30 as a high with significant ice storm Tuesday. People will be shocked at the sudden changes, perhaps outraged because they expect a 7 day forecast to have a CLUE of what's going to happen. The fact the we can't trust that a strong arctic front can pass in 7 days to properly plan for it is outrageous or at least can cause a measure of uncertainty in planning. As long as forecasting has been occuring you'd think you can have a general idea of what will happen in 7 days. But this flip-flopping is ridiculous and when models flip back to warm or near warm we believe them because models hardly ever seem to be wrong about SER, but never really get cold air right. That's legitimate cause for complain is all I'm saying.
 
Downeastnc said:
Euro not doing well with the low level cold out west as well...this is the 12Z forecast of around now.....

View attachment 73249

Reality is OKC is at 20, and all but the very SE corner of OK is well below freezing and places in north TX where this shows 41-45 are currently in the upper 20's, that's a pretty darn big error in this range.....this wont matter much for us here in NC though if the PV does not actually get in here lol.....but if it does then chances are the Euro wont be cold enough with the temps.
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You said it. I think the extent of the cold is underestimated where the PV had advanced but since it isn’t really forecasted to make it here...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Clayton said:
Everyone is saying calm down, I get that. But there's another dimension to this though. General public expects that a seven day forecast shown to them on news at night is generally correct or close to correct. Let's just assume the models are STILL wrong, and there won't be a SE ridge. Let's say the forecast is a high of 44 with rain on next Tuesday in Atlanta and this gets shown on Channel 2 news or something. The general public would believe it. But then let's say it changes and we end up with 30 as a high with significant ice storm Tuesday. People will be shocked at the sudden changes, perhaps outraged because they expect a 7 day forecast to have a CLUE of what's going to happen. The fact the we can't trust that a strong arctic front can pass in 7 days to properly plan for it is outrageous or at least can cause a measure of uncertainty in planning. As long as forecasting has been occuring you'd think you can have a general idea of what will happen in 7 days. But this flip-flopping is ridiculous and when models flip back to warm or near warm we believe them because models hardly ever seem to be wrong about SER, but never really get cold air right. That's legitimate cause for complain is all I'm saying.
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A 5 day forecast is probably a better idea given how models are after 5 days.
 
Clayton said:
Everyone is saying calm down, I get that. But there's another dimension to this though. General public expects that a seven day forecast shown to them on news at night is generally correct or close to correct. Let's just assume the models are STILL wrong, and there won't be a SE ridge. Let's say the forecast is a high of 44 with rain on next Tuesday in Atlanta and this gets shown on Channel 2 news or something. The general public would believe it. But then let's say it changes and we end up with 30 as a high with significant ice storm Tuesday. People will be shocked at the sudden changes, perhaps outraged because they expect a 7 day forecast to have a CLUE of what's going to happen. The fact the we can't trust that a strong arctic front can pass in 7 days to properly plan for it is outrageous or at least can cause a measure of uncertainty in planning. As long as forecasting has been occuring you'd think you can have a general idea of what will happen in 7 days. But this flip-flopping is ridiculous and when models flip back to warm or near warm we believe them because models hardly ever seem to be wrong about SER, but never really get cold air right. That's legitimate cause for complain is all I'm saying.
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Honestly we haven't gotten this Arctic air inside 7 days yet. So I wouldn't day its flip flopping as bad as some think. After 7 days sure, but inside 7 days it's been pretty consistent telling us it's not coming.
 
When you have two solutions as drastic as the 12z and 18z GFS runs...... then you know models don’t have a clue. A crushing winter storm for SC/NC then an apps runner?? Please........... 0Z will be another totally different solution. Everyone needs to expect a bumpy ride until late week w modeling.

would be cool to get a glimpse at some of the in house modeling such as the IBM GRAF
 
Clayton said:
Everyone is saying calm down, I get that. But there's another dimension to this though. General public expects that a seven day forecast shown to them on news at night is generally correct or close to correct. Let's just assume the models are STILL wrong, and there won't be a SE ridge. Let's say the forecast is a high of 44 with rain on next Tuesday in Atlanta and this gets shown on Channel 2 news or something. The general public would believe it. But then let's say it changes and we end up with 30 as a high with significant ice storm Tuesday. People will be shocked at the sudden changes, perhaps outraged because they expect a 7 day forecast to have a CLUE of what's going to happen. The fact the we can't trust that a strong arctic front can pass in 7 days to properly plan for it is outrageous or at least can cause a measure of uncertainty in planning. As long as forecasting has been occuring you'd think you can have a general idea of what will happen in 7 days. But this flip-flopping is ridiculous and when models flip back to warm or near warm we believe them because models hardly ever seem to be wrong about SER, but never really get cold air right. That's legitimate cause for complain is all I'm saying.
Click to expand...
The models have been wrong about the SER all year.
 
Stephenb888 said:
Woah. Went to bed last night thinking the artic cold was coming again. Been busy all day today, finally got back on here and bam it’s gone again. Will we get the artic blast or not?
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We never were getting the Arctic cold tbh. The winterstorms were CAD driven. Recent trends have been to weaken the PV and lose the confluence in the northeast. If correct then we rain. If not then some form of wintry precip (most likely ice) is still on the table.
 
Clayton said:
I think we were all rooting for arctic cold tho, weren't we? We knew it was overdone to an extent, but we still want arctic cold for any chance at all. So we were hoping that the ICON and GFS cold were at least somewhat halfway close to right, but I guess we fell for it like always
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Of course always root for legit cold over CAD cold. I always prefer to have the cold here first even if it comes with worrying about suppression. Honestly if I had to guess right now I'd day the answer is somewhere between those insane runs last night and what's modeled now.
 
Clayton said:
I know I was hoping for at least highs near the freezing mark or below in Atlanta. That's when u know you have a very legitimate chance. I know I'm not the only one
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Personally I wasn’t hoping for the extreme cold, single digit lows and 20s for highs, because my experience tells me that usually means any storm would miss me to the south and east. Also, the largest snowstorm that I personally have experienced, February 2004, occurred the day after a high of 48 degrees. Also in December 2002, the largest ice storm I’ve ever experienced, occurred the day after a 59 degree high. To me CAD means the airmass isn’t coming over the mountains and the it’s got less of a chance of getting delayed
 
iGRXY said:
Translation: no model or ensemble has a damn clue what’s going to happen outside of the next 48 hours at most
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It’s almost comical at this point. I really wonder if someone might ever do a case study about model performance this winter to figure out what’s gone so wrong with them. One would have to assume there is an issue with data that being put into them
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Damn I gotta admit even with a slightly colder adjustment after a warmer run, this is quite a classic look mslp pattern wise View attachment 73290
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Yeah I mean why are we upset with this? A banana arctic high with a 1037 center over NY and low pressure in the GOM and we are worried?
 
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