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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
Brent
Member
Well the cold isnt totally dry here lol but again almost 200 hours out
Yrs, trophospheric PV
Snownut
Member
accu35
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That Sunday/Monday time frame would had worked if the cold didn't suppress the low.
Confirmed, this EPS run will be much colder than the 12Z.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Ideally we need the TPV to be over the longitude of about Cleveland and Toronto or the southern stream wave needs to be just coming onshore California if the TPV is gonna sit there near Superior
FWIW 6z ICON was farther east
GFS wants to put us in the freezer then do this ? ? ?
That GFS run was really close to something big. Surface temps were only a few degrees off for most of the southeast, the big thing was lack of moisture.
NCHighCountryWX
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Unfortunately WPC has removed NC from their hazards outlook for the potential for snow end of the week
Looks like the more durable cold was one of many bad 5 to 10 day model depictions this winter
Looks like the more durable cold was one of many bad 5 to 10 day model depictions this winter
DadOfJax
Member
Always 10 days away
^^Yeah the 6z GFS shows 2 or 3 (very) light events from day 5 to 10. I suppose something could develop more, or as usual warm up slightly and provide more cold rain/CAD.
So the overall theme of the models shuffling still seem to me the theme after looking at the overnight runs and the 6z ICON and GFS. The biggest takeaway right now is that anything beyond 72 hrs at this point should probably be taken with a huge pile of salt. The two tendencies that seem to be continuing are the two we’ve been seeing throughout the winter... plenty of blocking and plenty of moisture... you would think with that combo the odds are we would score eventually
Parker
Member
?
RAH also unsure how things will play out (understandably):
.....A cold front will bring drier northerly flow and decreasing chances
of precipitation from NW to SE on Friday. However, it appears the
front will again stall to the south, with possible waves of low
pressure riding along it, which would continue light precipitation
chances for the weekend especially in the SE. However, timing these
systems this far out is nearly impossible. For now have mainly
slight chance POPs in NW zones and low chance POPs in the SE. The
00z ECMWF also finally shows the polar vortex moving east to SE
Canada, resulting in cold Arctic air that has been locked over the
Midwest finally moving to the eastern US. This could also mean a
chance for wintry precipitation in central NC so continue mention of
mixed precipitation in the weather grids for the weekend. However,
confidence of this is low at this time.
As for temperatures, the cold Arctic air will remain bottled over
the central US through at least Friday, so highs near or slightly
below normal (upper-40s to 50s) are expected during this period,
with clouds and moisture keeping lows above normal (mid-30s to mid-
40s). Behind the cold frontal passage on Friday, temperatures will
be cooler for the weekend, but exactly how much so is uncertain. The
GFS is very warm again by Sunday with an upper ridge over the
eastern US, but this is not supported by its ensembles, the NBM, or
the ECMWF, so lean toward the cooler solution and continue highs in
the 40s.
.....A cold front will bring drier northerly flow and decreasing chances
of precipitation from NW to SE on Friday. However, it appears the
front will again stall to the south, with possible waves of low
pressure riding along it, which would continue light precipitation
chances for the weekend especially in the SE. However, timing these
systems this far out is nearly impossible. For now have mainly
slight chance POPs in NW zones and low chance POPs in the SE. The
00z ECMWF also finally shows the polar vortex moving east to SE
Canada, resulting in cold Arctic air that has been locked over the
Midwest finally moving to the eastern US. This could also mean a
chance for wintry precipitation in central NC so continue mention of
mixed precipitation in the weather grids for the weekend. However,
confidence of this is low at this time.
As for temperatures, the cold Arctic air will remain bottled over
the central US through at least Friday, so highs near or slightly
below normal (upper-40s to 50s) are expected during this period,
with clouds and moisture keeping lows above normal (mid-30s to mid-
40s). Behind the cold frontal passage on Friday, temperatures will
be cooler for the weekend, but exactly how much so is uncertain. The
GFS is very warm again by Sunday with an upper ridge over the
eastern US, but this is not supported by its ensembles, the NBM, or
the ECMWF, so lean toward the cooler solution and continue highs in
the 40s.