From RAH:
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 457 PM Tuesday...
A very
active pattern will continue for the rest of the forecast
period, with long range models suggesting multiple strong troughs
moving across the
CONUS. Will be watching the first system move into
the area Friday night into Saturday as a
low pressure system
develops along the
NC coast and lifts NE Saturday night.
As a
ridge builds into the Central Plains and wraps around the
mountains and into the Mid-Atlantic, it will allow for some near
freezing temperatures to move into the region
Saturday morning. This
will bring a chance of freezing rain in the northern Piedmont during
the morning hours and later changing to all rain area wide. Saturday
evening there is expected to be a brief break in the precipitation
before picking up again
Sunday morning. Yet again with temperatures
around freezing in the Northern Piedmont, expect freezing rain to
begin in the morning and change over to rain by late morning. As the
trough moves out of the area Sunday evening both the 12z
GFS and
ECMWF show a
brief break in the precipitation Sunday night before
the next wave of precipitation moves into the area Monday afternoon.
With cold air wedging in from the north, temperatures Monday morning
will be in the mid 20s to low 30s across the area. If these cooler
temps stick around for the next batch of precipitation there could
be a chance of wintry mix in the NE coastal plain
Monday evening.
Forecast confidence for late Monday evening onward is low, as there
are many uncertainties with model agreement and whether or not
temperatures will remain sub freezing or just above freezing. Most
of these differences are brought about by the
GFS keeping a surface
low off the coast and a typical
CAD setup, while the
ECMWF brings
the low directly over
NC with much warmer temperatures. For the time
being, went with an
ensemble consensus of rain or snow area wide for
Tuesday.
