Euro is the “worse“ looking model at H5 yet it delivered that. Yikea 
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th
- Thread starter deltadog03
- Start date
td tide
Member
I have to disagree with this. We have summer from May until October. Please keep it as cool as possible for as long as possible.
I rarely pay attention to Ice events when temps are ~32. This storm may be much different. I'm not scared yet because always is a cutoff to the west that me eastward. Certainly not a good look for the GSP and mountain crew though.
Snownut
Member
Nothing at the moment looks like we dodging a ice storm unfortunately
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Stormsfury
Member
Lots of issues to deal with on this EURO...
1) deepening BC low (British Columbia)... lower heights.
2) Bogged down SW low deepening - longwave neg tilt trough
3) weakening TPV over the Lakes...instead of the SW energy riding underneath a stronger TPV... the SW s/w has the opportunity to flourish with some infusement from the lower heights in British Columbia...
So basically another different solution in the vast pain of trying to find consistency...
1) deepening BC low (British Columbia)... lower heights.
2) Bogged down SW low deepening - longwave neg tilt trough
3) weakening TPV over the Lakes...instead of the SW energy riding underneath a stronger TPV... the SW s/w has the opportunity to flourish with some infusement from the lower heights in British Columbia...
So basically another different solution in the vast pain of trying to find consistency...
Lol I just find it crazy how we get that crappy look at H5 and still crank this out
It’s really difficult to say that any of these models are showing a trend of anything. To me a trend is a model having a general idea and then moving in one direction for 3 or 4 runs. That Euro run brought a completely different idea with destroying that TPV. The two constants that we’re seeing right is far strong CAD and even in warmer looks the idea of a winter storm
SimeonNC
Member
Can't wait to see what the EPS shows
EPS really backed off the SE Canada vortex, a whole lot 
iGRXY
Member
It's worse.
Sure we can avoid it. We still have 168 hrs to avoid it. That's an eternity when it comes to modeling.
Yep, maybe we can trend away 
ATLwxfan
Member
Snownut
Member
I said at the moment. Yes plenty of time for things to change
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
SnowNiner
Member
There's your trend. EPS has been ticking the PV weaker for several runs now. Its going to be non-existent in the models by tomorrow. Meaning the cold gets weaker, the SE ridge gets stronger, we get a cutter and we rain.
LickWx
Member
If it cuts enough could mean a warm dry day, would it not?
Jessy89
Member
The reason I said a trend towards rain. Is simply because of the pattern models. I mean if you’d had believed the models last week. We would have been looking at a board wide snow storm this weekend. But everything got pushed back or delayed. I’m in no way saying we won’t get a winter storm next week. But I am saying if the pattern among these models hold it will all shift to a cold rain soon.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
This event tbh has lots of wiggle room, if we go with a blend of all models it’s still a legitimate threat (for now), ukmet/euro/eps is hard to beat tho
ATLwxfan
Member
The Euro spares a lot of us in north GA. Fingers crossed the trend continues.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NCHighCountryWX
Member
- Joined
- Dec 28, 2016
- Messages
- 531
- Reaction score
- 1,461
Refer back to the MJO that is still not supportive of Cold in the SE
iGRXY
Member
You can't put much stock into anything right now. No OP or Ensemble. They're all completely flipping around either for the better or worse. The best bet at this juncture is a blend of all of them. The TPV would be weaker but not completely destroyed which is absurd honestly. GFS/CMC are more believable in the evolution of the TPV. Either way you get ICE east of the mountains and a lot of it falling in mid to upper 20's. If you blend all the data together you get temps in the 24-28 range in NC and the upstate and all freezing rain likely.
Damn what a trend away from wintry wx 
SnowNiner
Member
No cutter would still be a good amount of rain, but perhaps less IMO.
Until we get back within about 84-96 hours and it trends back the other way. 3 days ago, the Euro/EPS had CLT getting well into the 60s this Friday... that was two days after having 30s for the same day... now we’re looking at low to mid 40s.
Tarheelwx
Member
What Chaz said.
TW
TW
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah we'll see. I serious doubt we trend back to serious cold. We're trending to less PV, more SE ridge. That's just going to get warmer IMO. Not hot, but not wintry probably in any way.
iGRXY
Member
Exactly. I am seeing a whole lot of "trends are away from wintery weather" and that just isn't true. Models are completely split on the evolution of the TPV and still give ice to the CAD areas. The Euro and the GFS have been AWFUL this year. they flip every run and I mean completely spit out a new H5 look. The EURO used to be king especially in this range and it hasn't been all season. Right now I see a middle ground look. Which means ICE in the CAD areas. Still don't see much of a shot for snow but ICE? yeah, that's a very strong possibility.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
I know you are just a young buck, but we have had some devastating ice storms in the CAD regions, with the low going West of the apps through TN, and TN having temps in the 50s. $ to donuts, this storm happens, split the temps between the Euro and GFS and add a dash of icon, you’ve got a recipe for a damaging ice storm in the CAD region!
Ron Burgundy
Member
Snow to the left of me, ZR to the right. Here I am - stuck in the middle again.
Last edited:
and in all honesty when it’s time for the models to verify, it will probably be a blend of all of them. One thing to note is that the models are all moving that TPV lobe now. Also as I’ve said before, while I don’t think extreme cold in the SE that had been shown at time will happen, you don’t need extreme cold to get winter weather
I agree! Talk about an almost 35-40 degree swing in temps for parts of the SE this run. Moral of the story is, as you know, this is going to change for the better or the worse...lol
I think the moral of the story is, lets not all panic over this run. Trends have been better than this, but it could easily go south (bad for us) quickly. Maybe it will look like this, maybe worse, maybe better? I don't think we will have anything ironed out until Sat or Sun (maybe) Hell, I went from 28 degrees and ZR to 50 degrees and rain in 1 run. Let that sink in.......
Very well said. I stand by statement earlier that we’ve seen the Euro do this trend for warmer during the 5-7 day out timeframe, only to reverse and trend colder during and inside the 3-4 day. Now that we have Arctic air in the lower 48 and snowpack to the north, I think those trends back cold could bring a winter storm as opposed to cold rain. Heck CAD regions of NC/SC are not to far from an ice storm in the Friday/Saturday timeframe now.
there have been and will continue to be huge swings in temps from deterministic models, judging by the wild range of solutions within the individual ensembles. quite the nightmarish time to be a forecaster
I'm not very worried about the Euro as it's been all over the place for the past several days.
olhausen
Member
This storm is getting a little to close to home for my liking.
Winter Storm Watch in effect from 9 PM Wednesday through 6 PM on Thursday. Freezing rain with ice accumulations of one tenth to greater than one quarter of an inch possible in the Watch. Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Tavel could be very dangeergous. Thehazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute.
Winter Storm Watch in effect from 9 PM Wednesday through 6 PM on Thursday. Freezing rain with ice accumulations of one tenth to greater than one quarter of an inch possible in the Watch. Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Tavel could be very dangeergous. Thehazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Not sure I understand the panic from one euro run. Euro literally made huge changes last Friday, only to literally undo those same changes 12 hours later. Euro has been all over the map lately
ATLwxfan
Member
There have been definite trends backing off on the PV and strengthening the ridge. There have been definite trends at delaying the cold. We are still close enough to the cold that it will influence our p-type from run to run, changes in low position, etc. But there is a them. That’s just a fact. I don’t like but that’s reality.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Stormsfury
Member
We're not done seeing wild changes by any stretch of the imagination... Guidance can't seemingly decide which features to key in on as dominant...
I think the takeaway today is that we're seeing every model is displaying it's weaknesses/biases to the Max on full display ....
I think the takeaway today is that we're seeing every model is displaying it's weaknesses/biases to the Max on full display ....
but again we’ve seen the trends of strengthening the ridge all winter and it hasn’t happened yet...