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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

accu35 said:
Members starting to pick up on Saturday/Sunday storm
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#20 is malfunctioning
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 72585
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There is sooo many factors in play right there. I am wonder if the -NAO is going to do the dirty work here and "pull" or TPV east and SE faster. See the height fields lowering over the NE and just NE of there? I wonder how much the building heights is going to work on the west coast as well. Damn what a very hard pattern to figure out and the EURO is super struggling.
 
deltadog03 said:
There is sooo many factors in play right there. I am wonder if the -NAO is going to do the dirty work here and "pull" or TPV east and SE faster. See the height fields lowering over the NE and just NE of there? I wonder how much the building heights is going to work on the west coast as well. Damn what a very hard pattern to figure out and the EURO is super struggling.
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The story of the year has been lowering heights around there under the block, I’d imagine lower heights around there allows a faster exit for the TPV, and yeah those changes in the pacific are massive
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The story of the year has been lowering heights around there under the block, I’d imagine lower heights around there allows a faster exit for the TPV, and yeah those changes in the pacific are massive
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Yes, nice to see the ridge bridging on the west coast to Alaska on the 18Z. Interesting to see If that trends stronger in future runs
 
deltadog03 said:
There is sooo many factors in play right there. I am wonder if the -NAO is going to do the dirty work here and "pull" or TPV east and SE faster. See the height fields lowering over the NE and just NE of there? I wonder how much the building heights is going to work on the west coast as well. Damn what a very hard pattern to figure out and the EURO is super struggling.
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I agree. I saw your video on Facebook earlier today and I can imagine your frustration is being felt by forecasters throughout the country
 
deltadog03 said:
There is sooo many factors in play right there. I am wonder if the -NAO is going to do the dirty work here and "pull" or TPV east and SE faster. See the height fields lowering over the NE and just NE of there? I wonder how much the building heights is going to work on the west coast as well. Damn what a very hard pattern to figure out and the EURO is super struggling.
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The negative NAO actually does the opposite here. Think about the large scale flow around this block, to the south you have anomalous easterly flow that’s trying to slow down the TPV and keep it further to the west longer.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
lol it’s trending back to a legit wave of cold again on the EPS if it keeps doing that (digging) View attachment 72587
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Man, that is just an incredible spread. I'm beginning to think it's simply that all of the globals simply don't have the skill to model this anomalous TPV in southern Canada beyond 72 hours.
 
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