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Wintry King Kong Winter Storm Potential Feb 13th-16th

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Ollie Williams said:
Talk about a gradient!
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I don't know why a front that strong can't get into the SE. It has to be the MJO ruining this for us. Phase 7 in a La Nina has to be responsible for these model outputs. At this point who knows if they're right.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Talk about a gradient!
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It will trend to 70 degrees , then it will continue to push the cold west and the south will look warm . Just as I buy in though it will begin to depict cad working its way down ! Literally what’s happened with last 2 weeks with these models lol! Look at late next week, started as cold , then went to warm , now it’s CAD .
 
I'm thinking the NAO could be hurting us for once. It seems to be blocking that cold high from coming east and just locking it in MN. Most of the time we need that block but with the coldest air in the hemisphere in NA and a continuous wave train we would be better off without it and have a progressive pattern. That's just my opinion. I'll still root for the -NAO 90% of the time but for some reason I'm sold on it hurting us more than helping us get winter weather this year. Sure its beating down the SER and keeping us seasonal but doing very little otherwise.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I'm thinking the NAO could be hurting is for once. It seems to be blocking that cold high from coming east and just locking it in MN. Most of the time we need that block but with the coldest air in the hemisphere in NA and a continuous wave train we would be better off without it and have a progressive pattern. That's just my opinion. I'll still root for the -NAO 90% of the time but for some reason I'm sold in it hurting us more than helping us get winter weather this year. Sure its beating down the SER and keeping us seasonal but doing very little otherwise.
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I think it has something to do with the PNA. It's currently negative right now but the GEFS is showing turning positive sometime this week,.
 
Snowfan said:
I think it has something to do with the PNA. It's currently negative right now but the GEFS is showing turning positive sometime this week,.
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PNA can’t turn positive if the -NAO block isn’t allowing the big TPV to move East quick enough
 
Snowfan said:
I think it has something to do with the PNA. It's currently negative right now but the GEFS is showing turning positive sometime this week,.
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It very well may be. Dump everything west it will naturally pump a SER. Correct the GEFS has the PNA rising in a few days. Let's hope it's right. That airmass looks to continuously reload so IF we can ever get the front through here it should be a fun ending to Feb.
 
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